Dragon pattern
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
Quote from Pekelo:
This is still in progress and should finish tomorrow:
Height is 30 pts and the 3rd top should come around 1618+30= 1648...
The ES reached the short-term reversal target by EOD. Actually it went 1pt higher than expected. Pretty similar to yesterday. So I sold at 1005.25 w/ 1 pt stop and it looks good so far (1003 now).
I hope NQ makes a strong pullback or double bottom (1620ish) by tonight/tomorrow AM before busting out to 1648. Either would be a good covering point for me (997-1000).
wow, some large inverse dragons played out. On ES, there were two big ones over the past 5 days (H=16 and then H=7.5), both gave a bounce/reversal of 15 pts. Sorry, I don't know how to post pics.
The 1st had:
T1=994,T2=1001.75,F=992,R/T3=1006.5.
The 2nd formed yesterday thru this morning with:
T1=1003.75,T2=1003.25,F=999.75,R/T3=1007.75.
Could this be the beginning of a larger downturn? If we get a 2xH drop then that'd mean about 970ish to fill that big gap around 975.
I don't see how these 15 pt slides could be a part of any other inverse dragons to suggest a higher 3rd Top.
The 1st had:
T1=994,T2=1001.75,F=992,R/T3=1006.5.
The 2nd formed yesterday thru this morning with:
T1=1003.75,T2=1003.25,F=999.75,R/T3=1007.75.
Could this be the beginning of a larger downturn? If we get a 2xH drop then that'd mean about 970ish to fill that big gap around 975.
I don't see how these 15 pt slides could be a part of any other inverse dragons to suggest a higher 3rd Top.
There's a HUGE normal dragon in the making over the past week as well. It also works with my thinking above, but this points to 980.
B1=978.25
M=1006.5
So, H = 28.25
B2 = 991.25
Failure at 1007.75 (2.5pt overshoot)
Reversal Target = F-28 = 980
I think this dragon stays intact as long as ES doesn't break 1010 the pattern is still alive. Would you agree Pekelo? These large dragons never go in straight lines.
B1=978.25
M=1006.5
So, H = 28.25
B2 = 991.25
Failure at 1007.75 (2.5pt overshoot)
Reversal Target = F-28 = 980
I think this dragon stays intact as long as ES doesn't break 1010 the pattern is still alive. Would you agree Pekelo? These large dragons never go in straight lines.
I saw two inverse dragons pointing to 1016-1017 (ES). One formed on Friday, and a bigger one over Wed/Thur to Fri. The big one's fail point was around 10AM Fri and the small one had a smaller height and higher fail point.
1015.5 was R2 and I had 1016.5 as a major trendline, so this looked like a perfect reversal play. I went long into them from 1012, sold for 3 pts, and had my short orders at 1016-1017 (yeah, about 450 contracts traded at 1016 so not a single sell filled for me). Waited/hoped for a double top or pullback that didn't come, so I just watched the 10 pt reversal play out. Well I did perfectly time/trade the bounce at 1007.75 to 1011 to 1008 to 1010 to 1006 for about 15 points.
We are getting one after another of the inverse dragons. It's interesting how one forms over a few days then a smaller inverse forms after/within and points to the same target. I had my target set too high b/c the shorter term inv dragon pointed higher and I thought it would be more accurate.
