Dr. Clayburg

Thanks ZGtrader, just use parameters you're using now for trading (or whatever Clayburg recommends using at the moment) and make sure to run test at a tick level too. I just need to see performance graph for each time frame, you have my email below. Thanks a lot

matt

mattnikiel@yahoo.com
 
Quote from Jimmy3:

Thanks ZGtrader, just use parameters you're using now for trading (or whatever Clayburg recommends using at the moment) and make sure to run test at a tick level too. I just need to see performance graph for each time frame, you have my email below. Thanks a lot

matt

mattnikiel@yahoo.com
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I ran the ES (8-15-08 to 2-23-09) on 233 and 512 tick using the out of the box workspace and settings. Before proceeding further, just wanted to let you know the 233 yielded a loss of -153,942.50 and the 512 had a loss of -81057.50. Profit factor on the tests came in at 0.75 and 0.79.

Just as a thought, the tests are useless because they are using outdated settings. Without optimization, the system will not work. Optimization is the key component of getting positive (but curve-fitted) results.

If you watch some of his nightly videos, you can get a peek at his updated settings. He names them B1, S1, B2, S2. He also has a video where he shows how and when he optimizes.
 
ZGtrader, it's highly unlikely that optimization itself will turn a losing system into profitable one. It's just a tool used to smoohen out the results and make curve look better. Try to backtest from 08/2008. Volatillity conditions haven't changed that much from August so it shouldn't have been nessesery to change inputs. Besides that, please point me to the video where he explains how and when to optimize

Matt
 
Quote from Jimmy3:

ZGtrader, it's highly unlikely that optimization itself will turn a losing system into profitable one. It's just a tool used to smoohen out the results and make curve look better. Try to backtest from 08/2008. Volatillity conditions haven't changed that much from August so it shouldn't have been nessesery to change inputs. Besides that, please point me to the video where he explains how and when to optimize

Matt
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The backtests started from 8/15/08. However, the default settings are not from 8/08. The universal system has been sold since approximately 2007. Any market can change significantly in 2 years.

As for the video from Clayburg discussing optimziation, you have to see his nightly video on TTM:

Here is the link
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/universal_update_5-21-08.html

With enough optimization, any system can be made profitable. But for how long after the last optimization is the question.
 
Can you do a backtest from August using settings Clayburg is recommending right now ? I understand that since you purchased the system you're getting all the updates and know what are current input settings. Besides that, please tell me what is your experience with the system so far ? Has this been working for you ?

Matt
 
Quote from Jimmy3:

Can you do a backtest from August using settings Clayburg is recommending right now ? I understand that since you purchased the system you're getting all the updates and know what are current input settings. Besides that, please tell me what is your experience with the system so far ? Has this been working for you ?

Matt
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You only get updates on the current settings if you subscribe to the optimization service he offers. However, if you watch his nightly videos you can sometimes get a peek at the current settings.

The system is designed for the user to perform their own optimization when they feel the performance is beginning to fail.

And if this tells you anything, I am not currently using the system in my daily trading.
 
Proper way to use optimization is to optimize sample of market data, walk it forward and see if it made a difference. If he reoptimizes every few weeks then it's nothing more then curve fitting

Matt
 
Quote from Jimmy3:

Proper way to use optimization is to optimize sample of market data, walk it forward and see if it made a difference. If he reoptimizes every few weeks then it's nothing more then curve fitting

Matt
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He calls it 'selective optimization'. But curve-fitting is also a good description.
 
Quote from zgtrader:

He calls it 'selective optimization'. But curve-fitting is also a good description.
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I have a question...why would you pay this man for an optimized, curve-fitted system?!?!?:confused:

Curve-fitting never works because the markets are always changing.

If clayburg had a "real edge", I'll guarantee you that he wouldn't be selling it retail. He would either trade it himself or sell it to a hedge fund. He's just another in a long-line of snake oil salesmen, a.k.a trading educators and authors.

Keep your money in your pocket Jimmy....you'll be better off.
 
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