DP's exotics journal

D

drownpruf

I just (yesterday) established a relationship with a new EU partner for OTC knockouts (touches and DNTs only). I told my buddies on the forex forum that I would post r/t looks at some positions.

I establish a VPN (logmein, whatever) to a local machine domiciled in the EU. It has an EU IP address that corresponds to the owner of the account (not me).

I'll provide screen-grabs of the r/t marks (executable) prior to pulling the trigger. I will not be trading any digitals (obviously). All orders will be either single touch, synthetics (touch w/spot hedge) or DNTs (no local hedge).

I have a few of these where I am staked, but all receive the same pricing. AUM at 100K EUR.

All trades go OTB at 11:59GMT

mdF5MuX.png





EURUSD DNT paying 28,517//42,000 EUR if no touch of 1.375/1.4088 by 11:59 GMT on 5/19. 68/100
 
drownpruf said:
I just (yesterday) established a relationship with a new EU partner for OTC knockouts (touches and DNTs only). I told my buddies on the forex forum that I would post r/t looks at some positions.

I establish a VPN (logmein, whatever) to a local machine domiciled in the EU. It has an EU IP address that corresponds to the owner of the account (not me).

I'll provide screen-grabs of the r/t marks (executable) prior to pulling the trigger. I will not be trading any digitals (obviously). All orders will be either single touch, synthetics (touch w/spot hedge) or DNTs (no local hedge).

I have a few of these where I am staked, but all receive the same pricing. AUM at 100K EUR.

All trades go OTB at 11:59GMT

mdF5MuX.png





EURUSD DNT paying 28,517//42,000 EUR if no touch of 1.375/1.4088 by 11:59 GMT on 5/19. 68/100
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this is interesting, but id love another options journal ;)
 
Sorry, but I can't recommend specific listed/vanilla positions. Edit to first post: All ops go off at 23:59 GMT (not Noon, obviously).
 
drownpruf said:
I had to pay 16.4K to cover my downside barrier.

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Stupid question I know but I have never traded binary options. What goes in to determining what makes a worthwhile trade? Is is purely a technical viewpoint (where the instrument is going or not going)? Or are there other inputs that determine what you trade (like vol. in vanilla options for example)? I am not asking for the secret sauce I am just curious from a basic overview how you go about deciding what to trade in the binary markets. Thanks!
 
Disregard my last question. More specifically, if I am looking at it right they are listing a $100 payout for rise/fall of the SP500 tomorrow close. It costs approx. 57 if it closes above or 49 if it closes below. How did they come up with the costs to make them so different (assuming 50/50 chance)? Is it based on which side most of the people are betting on?
 
My advice on binary options? Stay away from them in general, in the long run the mathematical odds favor the seller (the one selling you the option), not the retail trader (the speculator).

And the same can be said about options in general.

For example, did you know that the famous Black-Scholes model for calculating the premium of an option is based on a false premise and has been designed to favor the sellers?

However, if used correctly, options can be useful under certain (and perhaps narrow) circumstances.
 
xelite777 said:
My advice on binary options? Stay away from them in general, in the long run the mathematical odds favor the seller (the one selling you the option), not the retail trader (the speculator).

And the same can be said about options in general.

For example, did you know that the famous Black-Scholes model for calculating the premium of an option is based on a false premise and has been designed to favor the sellers?

However, if used correctly, options can be useful under certain (and perhaps narrow) circumstances.
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Of all the people giving advice, I think you need to take a break from it for a while.. You're walking around blind without a cane here. Atticus's track record speaks for itself. He's probably in the top 5% of ET and this is home turf.

and yes all things aside I have a lot of respect for him and I think you should too.
 
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