Dow versus SP500 versus Naz all time

[SoyUnGanador]

In several threads, after doing some testing, I posted what beasts the QQQs seem to be versus other ETF/CEFs, etc.

But I don't think I've compared them to SPYs or DIAs since their inception. Only more recent times.

So I just compared the QQQs and DIAs and SPYs since the inception of the QQQs, which apparently came to life most recently, on 3/10/1999.

I thought for sure the QQQs would win.

And, turns out, they do win from an absolute performance standpoint. Stats for the 3 for that period:

QQQs - IRR 8.26%, max DD 82.96% (ouch!), the former divided by the latter being 9.95%

SPYs - 6.72%, 55.19%, and 12.18% respectively.

DIAs - 7.51%, 51.87%, and 14.48% respectively.

So from a performance to DD perspective, they don't look so hot. The DIAs looking like the best of the 3.

Side note: I was thinking that the max drawdown on the QQQs must have been during like 2000 or 2001, but it was actually hit on 10/9/22. The previous high against it was measured was hit on 3/27/2000. A long time to be feeling that huge drawdown.

Anyone know how this epic battle shakes out, all time? SP500 versus Naz (or whatever is closest to the QQQs - looks like NASDAQ 100), versus Dow Jones Industrials? In each case whatever the QQQs, SPYs, and DIAs are based on.

I seem to remember someone posting recently that the DJI or whatever actually outperformed the NASDAQ over the very long term, and of course it would have less drawdown. But the outperforming it part surprised me a bit!

 

[maxinger]

Soon you will be comparing

ym vs es vs nq vs rty
hangseng vs China A50 vs India Nifty vs
Dax vs cac40 vs FTSE vs ....

and you wouldn't be able to sleep.

I doubt comparing will help much in improving the bottom line.

 

[SoyUnGanador]

Soon you will be comparing

ym vs es vs nq vs rty
hangseng vs China A50 vs India Nifty vs
Dax vs cac40 vs FTSE vs ....

and you wouldn't be able to sleep.

I doubt comparing will help much in improving the bottom line.

You are probably right on all counts! Still, fun comparing!

 

[nitrene]

Dow is value, NASDAQ is growth & S&P 500 is a 1:1 mix. If you read about value vs. growth long term, value always wins hence DJIA outperforms in the long term.

I remember reading What Works On Wall Street (James P. O'Shaughnessy) in 1999 and it covers every scenario possible and micro cap value was the best long term but since the market cap & liquidity factors limit its buy-ability large cap value was the winner. I think the authors also found that using momentum as an additional factor to value was useful in alpha. I think O'Shaughnessy used low price-to-sales as value, if I remember correctly.

 

[murray t turtle]

%%
ALMOST always /SPY does better than DIA\;
+ SPY also = Liquidity leader..................................................
NOT likely dia does better than SPY,QQQ long term+ it has not in the past

 

[Darc]

 

[murray t turtle]

View attachment 307132

%%
MOST likely % is soemthing like your chart;
even if qqq does not do that good, like $120-$20 drawdown in 1999 bear move on down................
[In other word even a good stock like MSFT or bad customer service + fined + fined crooked co like META , may not do nears well as well in past.[Heavy weights in qqq]

 

[jys78]

In several threads, after doing some testing, I posted what beasts the QQQs seem to be versus other ETF/CEFs, etc.

But I don't think I've compared them to SPYs or DIAs since their inception. Only more recent times.

So I just compared the QQQs and DIAs and SPYs since the inception of the QQQs, which apparently came to life most recently, on 3/10/1999.

I thought for sure the QQQs would win.

And, turns out, they do win from an absolute performance standpoint. Stats for the 3 for that period:

QQQs - IRR 8.26%, max DD 82.96% (ouch!), the former divided by the latter being 9.95%

SPYs - 6.72%, 55.19%, and 12.18% respectively.

DIAs - 7.51%, 51.87%, and 14.48% respectively.

So from a performance to DD perspective, they don't look so hot. The DIAs looking like the best of the 3.

Side note: I was thinking that the max drawdown on the QQQs must have been during like 2000 or 2001, but it was actually hit on 10/9/22. The previous high against it was measured was hit on 3/27/2000. A long time to be feeling that huge drawdown.

Anyone know how this epic battle shakes out, all time? SP500 versus Naz (or whatever is closest to the QQQs - looks like NASDAQ 100), versus Dow Jones Industrials? In each case whatever the QQQs, SPYs, and DIAs are based on.

I seem to remember someone posting recently that the DJI or whatever actually outperformed the NASDAQ over the very long term, and of course it would have less drawdown. But the outperforming it part surprised me a bit!

So you're saying there was an 83% DD in the Q's in fall 2022? Hnh. I missed that one!

 

[Zwaen]

%%
MOST likely % is soemthing like your chart;
even if qqq does not do that good, like $120-$20 drawdown in 1999 bear move on down................
[In other word even a good stock like MSFT or bad customer service + fined + fined crooked co like META , may not do nears well as well in past.[Heavy weights in qqq]

I don't know, they seem to have a head start in chatgpt. I was first a bit skeptical about the ai chatbot/hype etc, but starting to think this is really a major leap and is a big thing (my job is in ML/AI). Basically in productivity boosting. Every 5 years or so there is a big opportunity (like crypto in 2010, amazon/online retail etc). Looking to ride this train, just not figured the how and what yet.

 

[murray t turtle]

Every 5 years orso..... amazon/online retail etc). Looking to ride this train, just not figured the how and what yet.

%%
LOOKS like the AMZN train maybe more than average, so far this year /so good;
may never hit past $3,000 like it has but it could.
Of course below 200dma can be a train wreck also;
or when there is so much stuff above 200dma or a train that underperforms .
NOT a prediction, not a SamBankman Fried fan, but i like Kentucky Fried chicken