DOW under 10000 next year?

[andrasnm]

I say no matter what bozo will inherit the WH - it is coming. A "Mother of a Bear Market". Typically while the dollar is falling the market will keep up and get propped up artificially (specially in an election year) but next year will be ugly, I am in 40% stocks and 50% cash with 10% fixed income. I am looking to sell any rally and get down to 25-30%...
When the dollar bottoms the market usually sells off bigtime.

 

[mskl]

Quote from andrasnm:

I say no matter what bozo will inherit the WH - it is coming. A "Mother of a Bear Market". Typically while the dollar is falling the market will keep up and get propped up artificially (specially in an election year) but next year will be ugly, I am in 40% stocks and 50% cash with 10% fixed income. I am looking to sell any rally and get down to 25-30%...
When the dollar bottoms the market usually sells off bigtime.

LOL

maybe by the end of the week.

 

[S2007S]

Next year??


Try as early as October or November....


There is no trust left in this market.


There isnt any reason for it to move higher....


The long the bailout plan takes the lower the market goes, and if the market doesnt like the bailout plan 10k is coming EXTREMELY quick.

 

[GermanTrader]

Quote from andrasnm:

I say no matter what bozo will inherit the WH - it is coming. A "Mother of a Bear Market". Typically while the dollar is falling the market will keep up and get propped up artificially (specially in an election year) but next year will be ugly, I am in 40% stocks and 50% cash with 10% fixed income. I am looking to sell any rally and get down to 25-30%...
When the dollar bottoms the market usually sells off bigtime.

I agree with you on both points... that both candidates are bozos and that the DOW will sink under 10,000 soon. I would have voted for 7,000, but it wasn't an option.

 

[andrasnm]

well I never like to set a target on a move 'cause that is arrogant, I am looking to pick up some cheap stocks next year )later part....

Quote from GermanTrader:

I agree with you on both points... that both candidates are bozos and that the DOW will sink under 10,000 soon. I would have voted for 7,000, but it wasn't an option.

 

[dsq]

i think a big drop to 10200 is imminent...today was just ugly...dont know if dow will go sub 10k but why would anyone invest in us stocks right now?For financials,retailers,staples?

 

[dve250]

Something to consider with the Dow, the companies that make up the index today is different than the companies when it first reached it in March 1999.

1999 Components:

Alcoa Incorporated
AlliedSignal Incorporated
American Express Company
AT&T Corporation
Boeing Company
Caterpillar Incorporated
Chevron
Citigroup Incorporated
Coca-Cola Company
Du Pont
Eastman Kodak Company
Exxon Corporation
General Electric Company
General Motors Corporation
Goodyear
Hewlett-Packard Company
International Business Machines
International Paper Company
J.P. Morgan & Company
Johnson & Johnson
McDonald’s Corporation
Merck & Company, Inc.
Minnesota Mining & Mfg
Philip Morris Companies Inc.
Procter & Gamble Company
Sears Roebuck & Company
Union Carbide
United Technologies Corporation
Wal-Mart Stores Incorporated
Walt Disney Company

2008 Components:

3M Company
Alcoa Incorporated
American Express Company
AT&T Incorporated
Bank of America Corporation
Boeing Corporation
Caterpillar Incorporated
Chevron Corporation
Citigroup Incorporated
Coca-Cola Company
DuPont
Exxon Mobil Corporation
General Electric Company
General Motors Corporation
Hewlett-Packard Company
Home Depot Incorporated
Intel Corporation
International Business Machines
Johnson & Johnson
J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Kraft Foods Inc.
McDonald’s Corporation
Merck & Company, Incorporated
Microsoft Corporation
Pfizer Incorporated
Procter & Gamble Company
United Technologies
Verizon Company
Wal-Mart Stores Incorporated
Walt Disney Company

If we compare apples to apples then we need to calculate the average with the same companies as in 1999. I don't know the formula to do that but it would be interesting to see a chart of the same companies over this time frame.