Dow Top Call - 11yr formation - part 3 (COSTCO)

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Crude Oil traders watch your ass, SHE sits on both the 200 day m.a. and the DAILY uptrendline from Feb 2009. These are massive supports.

On 1H there is massive positive divergence building up, so don't get shocked if there is a rocket bounce.

On 4H I see this .....




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Quote from deadbroke:

When a downtrend ends, especially a long downtrend, and the first wave up fires, one knows that its a first wave up because the preceding sideways motion aka triangle before the final low denotes a 4th wave so one is ready and knows that a reversal is at hand.

Note sometimes there is no triangle but a simple zigzag, so then one gets verification from momentum to know that a 4th is occurring.

Anyway, after the reversal has occurred and a first wave up has been printed, there must be a correction aka wave 2 and this wave 2 will hold above the low and when momentum gets very low to the downside you've just gotta get in with full power, I mean total power and ALL wherewithal that you've set aside for trading purposes because that there is the

LOWEST RISK IN CHRISTENDOM

Wave 3 up immediately thereafter will give you sooooo much profits that you don't need to trade much thereafter - that's exactly why my # of trades is small.

Then I wait for the 4th wave low and get in for wave 5 - the risk level is a bit higher here but still acceptable.
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Very interesting...thanks. But I don't see the five waves in your charts for USD. Only ABC.
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Crude Oil traders watch your ass, SHE sits on both the 200 day m.a. and the DAILY uptrendline from Feb 2009. These are massive supports.

On 1H there is massive positive divergence building up, so don't get shocked if there is a rocket bounce.

On 4H I see this .....




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there is this too - wavelength guide - Waves obey the Fibonacci Principle in some form or other - 1.414 or 1.618 and variations thereof. Sometimes its hard to see it and one could be searching for it but the Wave is just not giving any - in such cases stay with the trend and sooner or later it will show up and when it does look for sustainable support/resistance and then build on it ..............

In this particular case observe that 161.8% went right thru' the axis of the triangle and we are now at 261.8%. If this fails we are going to 423.6% which is way south of here.

But if 261.8% supports Price and causes reversal it could generate a wave 2 up or even make a new HIGH i.e. take out the TOP for the following reason .....

That triangle, if a wave B, then all we got is an A-B-C down from the alleged TOP in Crude. This is the signature of a corrective wave, therefore the larger trend is still UP, i.e. the TOP is not in.

On the other hand I have seen a wave 2 disappear within a steep drop - as in this case, so the other possibility is that the triangle is a wave 4 within the whole drop, which would therefore make the entire drop a 5-wave decline - in this case the TREND is down with an aborning corrective wave correcting in 3 waves up.

Price is full of tricks in much the same way ET-ers are full of lies and bullshit - but Price and ET-ers are one and the same thing - so that's just the way it is, no need to analyze further.





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Is the retard who tried to argue with me in my PM box reading this thread?

You better believe it.

So, for his benefit .....

Do you see that all this is laid out in advance with full analysis of the only 2 possibilities that exist?

Try doing this here with your method. If you are who or what you say you are and worth the investment you ought to at least give us a test run of what you got. Even best Buy gives a test run.

Come here and fight in the open. If you are as good as you claim I'll be the first one to be grateful for learning something.

Now don't go crying to Mummy Joe to ban or expel me, sissy. :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Do you see that all this is laid out in advance with full analysis of the only 2 possibilities that exist?
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Either up or down? Well now that narrows it down a bit
 
Quote from deadbroke:

there is this too - wavelength guide - Waves obey the Fibonacci Principle in some form or other - 1.414 or 1.618 and variations thereof. Sometimes its hard to see it and one could be searching for it but the Wave is just not giving any - in such cases stay with the trend and sooner or later it will show up and when it does look for sustainable support/resistance and then build on it ..............

In this particular case observe that 161.8% went right thru' the axis of the triangle and we are now at 261.8%. If this fails we are going to 423.6% which is way south of here.

But if 261.8% supports Price and causes reversal it could generate a wave 2 up or even make a new HIGH i.e. take out the TOP for the following reason .....

That triangle, if a wave B, then all we got is an A-B-C down from the alleged TOP in Crude. This is the signature of a corrective wave, therefore the larger trend is still UP, i.e. the TOP is not in.

On the other hand I have seen a wave 2 disappear within a steep drop - as in this case, so the other possibility is that the triangle is a wave 4 within the whole drop, which would therefore make the entire drop a 5-wave decline - in this case the TREND is down with an aborning corrective wave correcting in 3 waves up.

Price is full of tricks in much the same way ET-ers are full of lies and bullshit - but Price and ET-ers are one and the same thing - so that's just the way it is, no need to analyze further.





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So the 2 possibilities are spelled out .... so how to trade it?

Take Short profits and go Long as soon as the downtrendline shown breaks topside. So as of now, the Short is still ongoing.

That's all I got for now, will wait for further market action on open to see how that support is acting
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Thread opener revisited

As stated in this thread's opener, no more than 3 people in the universe could have taken this shot.

The "3 people" was an exaggeration. A CALL of this magnitude is reserved only for the derringdo of the solitary hunter/warrior and his name is deadbroke.

And the dead one is laughing his ass off because EVERYONE AT ET KNOWS THAT TO CALL TOPS/BOTTOMS is IMPOSSSSSSIBLE

:D :D





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see this thread for the VIX

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/reply.php?s=&action=newreply&postid=3189046


--------------------------

extract from May 19, 2011 in the above thread

05-19-11 07:09 AM

The keen eye of the dead and broke one spots something nice on the Vix daily chart.

Look to the extreme right hand side of the chart and see the little cluster of red bars? ... well, look closer and see that that little move up from 4/28 is a straight up, and then followed by a 3-wave move down.

So as long as the 4/28 low holds, there is something aborning.

The rocket move north I spoke about earlier in this thread is forthcoming.

When the Macd trendline busts Fat Finger 2 will be underway and this time I doubt anybody can stop it.

Hide and watch




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