Dow Top Call - 11yr formation - part 3 (COSTCO)

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Quote from deadbroke:

Both DX and EurUsd are now out of the Target Box.

Mission accomplished!!!!!

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Now, can they go back into the Target Box?

Remember the 2 configurations of wavecounts I provided in 2 charts?

Well, one of those configs still suggests that this downwave might be only a wave 4 within wave C - this would mean that we will challenge
the 50% Fib once more and maybe even exceed it.

How can I eliminate this possibility?

Well, if the current drop retraces more than 38.2% or 50% then that thought is forever gone because a 3rd wave rarely retraces that much.

But anything less, which is where we are at now, leaves that option still in.

So its a wait and see.

For guys playing with the milk money a good STOP technique is the bar by bar approach in a runaway market.

Place STOP above the previous 1H bar, about 1% or so above the high of that bar. You're already in big profits so don't be miserly about giving back some. Lucrum, who is on the other side of the trade has the right to be able to pay his rent, too. :)
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>>>>>Well, one of those configs still suggests that this downwave might be only a wave 4 within wave C - this would mean that we will challenge the 50% Fib once more and maybe even exceed it.
<<<<<<

There you have it. So, it was the first of the 2 configurations that is the correct one, so I shall now re-work the chart.






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So now that we are in the 5th (circled) wave up for wave C, what do we know?

That the penultimate wave aka wave 4 (circled) has spoken. Therefore we are in the ultimate wave aka the last sub-wave up, namely wave 5 (circled)

Where and how can we determine where this wave 5 circled will end?

The answer comes from the Hypothalamus of the HERD - some HERD members, especially those at ET might have only a Spleen or at worst, only a colon instead of the Hypothalamus or Thalamus, but no matter .... there be an equation to figure the length of the 5th wave ....

wave 5 = wave 1

or

wave 5 = 161.8% X wave 1

or

wave 5 = 61.8% X wave 1 .... for a failed wave 5, meaning that it fails to exceed the top of wave 3.

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so where does wave 5 stand now?

well, we've gone past 61.8% X wave 1 and are at EXACTLY

wave 5 = wave 1 right now ..... hehehehe and this is the most common result for the length of wave 5 especially given that the extended wave within the sequence was Wave 3.

But the final arbiter is Moses, so let's wait and see if he parts the sea again? :)


shown in chart s the superimposition calculation showing that wave five and wave one are identical in length - see blue grid




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Quote from deadbroke:





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Shown for your and my edification is the original configuration (on page 2) where I had marked the end of wave 3 as at the 50% Fib or thereabouts. Fast forward to today and the prev. few posts show that the original config. was the correct one.
 
Defcon 5 high alert readiness to go SHORT is now on for Wave (III) down but no trigger yet


One short entry will be when the major uptrendline breaks.

The upper shorter trendline is a possible short entry too, if broken but this is a wait and see for further info on clues.




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EurUsd quick chart update for now - got to take care of some urgent business, so will be back later in the day.

Main point in this brief update is that I am very hesitant to make the SHORT call for Wave 3 just yet despite the fact that we are in Defcon 5.

Yes, hitting the top channel line is a solid hint but its not enough for me.

The only stable datum I have right now is the main uptrendline as stated before, break that and I go SHORT.

As you can readily tell, I am applying my own strategic philosophy while the market throws me a zinger by going outside my TARGET BOX ...

"never compromise with your own reality;
Keep your own counsel
Be your own advisor"

So again bottomline is that without further clues I'm not willing to enter willy-nilly.




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Go SHORT if prices drop below the upper channel line with STOP 1% or so over the top.


I haven't changed a thing - same chart, same grids etc.

But Euro threw me a sybarite :) :)

Euro went out of the Target Box and exceeded wave C = A. We are now at slightly past 161.8% X Wave A. The 23.6% Fib level is a tad higher and she could be headed there (reverse Fib grid shown).

But there is a small, infinitesimal clue that was wired to me .....
is that a little triangle there just before the latest vertical rise on 1H?

Go SHORT if prices drop below the upper channel line with STOP over the top.







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S&P500 updated chart at blog.

This monthly chart show a series of broadening patterns, aka
megaphone wedges. The three broadening formations pictured
reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for
control. The first two megaphones make clear the eventual victors.

Prepare for the next Black Swan which will be 'unexpected and
could never have been predicted'

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Hey guys, a quickie visit, sorry, very limited time available so very sketchy visits - and maybe that's a good thing because mod Saint ElectricSavant, a towering saint from biblical times has me in his sights and might ban me although he SWORE to stop tampon-ish assaults against ET members. Good thing Baron stuck him in the graveyard known as FOREX FORUM frequented by ghosts and bums from the Greyhound busstation. :)

(Nah, ES is a good man, one of a kind and with a sense of humor too.! :)

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posted May 20, 2011 (thus far is THE TOP) in Dow Top Call Part 2 thread ..... on page 2 .....



http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=220543


05-20-11 09:32 AM

COSTCO




Another Shorting opportunity from deadbroke - I don't believe there's more than even 3 or 4 fellows in the universe who could take this shot and I personally don't know anyone, but if you do, tell me who it is ..

COSTCO is topping - and its fortunes are going to change in a fckin hurry. I shop there and have noticed things that only an astute observer can notice, things that can only become visible in the late stages of wave 5.

Let's see how it plays out ...... the trendline shown at the top is nice and close to Price action, so take NO action unless this trendline breaks.


Now remember this guys ....

the max rate of return on investment is immediately following a 5 wave advance's completion





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Thread opener revisited

As stated in this thread's opener, no more than 3 people in the universe could have taken this shot.

The "3 people" was an exaggeration. A CALL of this magnitude is reserved only for the derringdo of the solitary hunter/warrior and his name is deadbroke.

And the dead one is laughing his ass off because EVERYONE AT ET KNOWS THAT TO CALL TOPS/BOTTOMS is IMPOSSSSSSIBLE

:D :D





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Deadbroke does a quick review for his own learning purposes and of course for some mirth, a commodity in short supply as commodities in general are taking it in the 2-moon-junction

The stupidity and what's worse, cowardice, of ET members exemplified

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219266&highlight=nonsense


First we can take up a territorial adversary, well hardly an adversary for this one is a golden-maned lion named BlackBison. I can whup this clown with my eyes closed.

And for the mods, when one opens the door to attacks, one becomes fairgame.

Meaning the ones who don't attack, are spared the wrath of the dead one.


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