Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
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Therefore if the CALL is WRONG .....
the weekly chart shown below shows the entire move from the Oct 2007 top for full perspective and clarity.
Therefore according to this scenario, we will get a big downside move, but this will be followed by a big upside move to complete the entire corrective pattern from the March 2009 lows.
If such is the case, the CRASH called for will in reality only begin then, i.e. we are several months away from that reality.
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the weekly chart shown below shows the entire move from the Oct 2007 top for full perspective and clarity.
Therefore according to this scenario, we will get a big downside move, but this will be followed by a big upside move to complete the entire corrective pattern from the March 2009 lows.
If such is the case, the CRASH called for will in reality only begin then, i.e. we are several months away from that reality.
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Given that the Dow Jones is only the butler of the King of Kings (US Dollar), let's take a brief look at the psychology of the crowd toward this KING .......
inverse recent correlation coefficient relationship between Dow and $ is quite good.
$ bears = $ haters = Euro lovers = extreme $ bearishnes = 97% (October 11, 2010 DSI reading)
= exact same level when $ bottomed out in late 2009.
Remember my theme, the deadbroke formula? .... weaponry is combo PRICE + SENTIMENT + Pay-shunce
Sentiment sets the Defcon Alert, then the warrior looks to PRICE for timing the STRIKE.
That be the formula. The only downside of this formula is that Sentiment can get even more lopsided than it already is - this is the reason why Patience, the par excellence virtue is included.
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inverse recent correlation coefficient relationship between Dow and $ is quite good.
$ bears = $ haters = Euro lovers = extreme $ bearishnes = 97% (October 11, 2010 DSI reading)
= exact same level when $ bottomed out in late 2009.
Remember my theme, the deadbroke formula? .... weaponry is combo PRICE + SENTIMENT + Pay-shunce
Sentiment sets the Defcon Alert, then the warrior looks to PRICE for timing the STRIKE.
That be the formula. The only downside of this formula is that Sentiment can get even more lopsided than it already is - this is the reason why Patience, the par excellence virtue is included.
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Hey DB.
We are now entering the consolidation phase. I had thought 11,200 but 11,000 is close enough. Be careful now as stocks that just report in line will be massacred.
You are beginning to make a lot of mistakes. One of the biggest is a lot of rear view mirror looking. Lines like this:-Dow rallied to the underside of the broken uptrendline, but here is what I'm going to do. Since we did get a higher close I'm going to move the trendline to cover the Oct 4 low.- what you fail to mention in that perty blue up box DB is at the bottom of that box you said go negative! If you were trading an iota of real money you would already be in the street.~stoney
We are now entering the consolidation phase. I had thought 11,200 but 11,000 is close enough. Be careful now as stocks that just report in line will be massacred.
You are beginning to make a lot of mistakes. One of the biggest is a lot of rear view mirror looking. Lines like this:-Dow rallied to the underside of the broken uptrendline, but here is what I'm going to do. Since we did get a higher close I'm going to move the trendline to cover the Oct 4 low.- what you fail to mention in that perty blue up box DB is at the bottom of that box you said go negative! If you were trading an iota of real money you would already be in the street.~stoney
Ok, let's review your trade. You've shorted the Dow numerous times at various levels starting at 10,100. So you've accumulated a fair bit of money in the trade and let's assume no margin call is in effect yet while you accumulate losses.
If the Dow hits around 11,300 you are out with a hefty loss. But let's assume you dodge this unfortunate event and the trade improves. At what point are you covering your shorts ? This is key because without a true exit point your profits will disappear and you will inevitably lose money. The Dow will exceed 11,100 again eventually regardless of how far it drops.
And here's one theory I have. If the Dow does collapse then your whole Gold at $250 idea is toast. Gold will skyrocket is the Dow drops due to ecomomic hardships in the world. So what I am saying is your two theories work against each other ultimately, so you need to scrap one.
ps You'd have a much better shot shorting some high flier stock long term then the Dow or Gold.
If one listens to Howard Davidowitz then DB's outlook becomes somewhat likely. The problem rests in price non-confirmative mood in relation to DB's sentiment. Where is weakening price action here? Or perhaps it will be a DT? At the moment it is not weakening & DT is only a future possibility. What is the likelihood of DT taking place & sending markets 50% down? I have no idea, can it even be calculated? Looking at facts at hand & as you say yourself - price only I would ask:
Where is the weakness in current price action?
TY!
Weekly Dow
Where is the weakness in current price action?
TY!
Weekly Dow
Quote from JSSPMK:
If one listens to Howard Davidowitz then DB's outlook becomes somewhat likely. The problem rests in price non-confirmative mood in relation to DB's sentiment. Where is weakening price action here? Or perhaps it will be a DT? At the moment it is not weakening & DT is only a future possibility. What is the likelihood of DT taking place & sending markets 50% down? I have no idea, can it even be calculated? Looking at facts at hand & as you say yourself - price only I would ask:
Where is the weakness in current price action?
TY!
Weekly Dow
Where is the weakness in current price action?
You're correct - Double-Top is only a future possibility. And in reality one could guess and take a shot but the neckline breaking is the WHAT CONFIRMS a DT.
So I agree 100%. DT ruled out.
But you've got to look deeper for an assessment of ...
Where is the weakness in current price action?
continued .......
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