Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

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10:47 AM, Sept. 21, 2010 Asian time zone,


We return now to the Daily chart view which is the basis of this THREAD CALL. Something significant happened yesterday, namely the early August top was exceeded on a closing basis.

So the last well-known remaining Dow Theory practitioner, Jack Schannep, who issued a SHORT CALL on June 29, 2010, has now issued a BULLISH buy signal. He and all his subscribers are now therefore LONG.

One thing I like about Jack is that he doesn't mess around with dubious doubletalk - he's simply either LONG or SHORT.

Some other known technicians who have a large subscriber following are covering their asses by saying that this is a trading LONG bla-bla. Whatever!

Marketwatch.com is also reporting a huge rise in bullishness with yesterday's market action.

What does this mean for me?

I'm the ONLY ONE left with a SHORT CALL.





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Quote from deadbroke:

10:47 AM, Sept. 21, 2010 Asian time zone,


We return now to the Daily chart view which is the basis of this THREAD CALL.

I'm the ONLY ONE left with a SHORT CALL.





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Note the clear depiction of my thought-ing process by stating the wavecount as Wave 1 and Wave 2 - with the A and B showing the subdivision of Wave 2.

The current rally leg is the wave C portion of Wave 2. Is it over? I don't know. But wherever it ends, the first big bar down will be massive. This is where the THREAD 10-yr topping pattern will have relinquished all bullishness and utter bearishness will descend upon the dopeheads at ET. :) :)
 
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THREAD CALL failure occurs if/when April 26 top is exceeded by even a hair. Why? Because by definition, wave 2 cannot retrace more than wave 1.

If this occurs, the count is wrong and my CALL is wrong.

---------------------------------------------

but let's assume in hindsight (that is going into the future and looking back and then returning to the present moment :) :) ) that I'm right ....


only an absolute asshole would want to be on the wrong side of a Wave 3 down at this type of 10-yr topping juncture.

You see, while a market is setting up for a wave 3 down, this being its most powerful leg, meaning this is when it goes full-throttle and opens up the floodgates of power, it MUST rope in and delude a maximum number of herbivores - including the ones on the sidelines - if it didn't do this, then how could it possibly deliver a massive blow to the majority if there were only just a few to receive it?

HERD sentiment is very clear on this. The start of the said wave 3 above will poy-manently leave behind any vestiges of bullishness. It will be unequivocal bearishness from then onward.
 
Re-post from 9-17 ..... as a reminder .....



Sticking neck out bigtime ..... :)

This thread is the topping call in the Dow. So far so good. Now I can add the second component, the start of the biggest CRASH in HISTORY - i.e. the biggest crash in entire US history - dwarfing the Great Depression. This CRASH will make the crash of 2008 look like a picnic.

The CRASH is now finally within sight .......... Fatter Finger coming up very soon. Will it be one day or days? I know how to explain it better without the time constraint, so it follows below ....

They are ALL going to go together. The Euro, Gold, Dow Jones and the rest of the gang. The WAR is right on the cusp of resuming. The bearcub has been asked back home as his Pappy is now out of hibernation and ready to take the helm.

Who are the participants in the WAR of the Millenium? Its as I've laid out from day #1 in all my threads ... its my buddy, the magnificent US Dollar versus the Rest of the World

Gold is nearing a top now and Euro is finishing up its recent rally. When these complete, the CRASH begins.

Gold's demise has just been posted - see last post here ...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=205231

study these threads too for my talk about the magnificent US dollar and the Millenium CRASH ... all laid out nicely in October 2009.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613&highlight=lambda

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179167&highlight=stance [/QUOTE]
 
From my post on August 16 .....


Guys, you might want to look at yield differentials in my prev. posts here

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=168825


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ighlight=lambda


specifically Moody's corp. bond yield MINUS US T-Bond yield

reminding you that aside from the actual indexes like dow, nas, sp, approaching the game from the vantage point of CREDIT gives you a nonpareil leading indicator ... that called the crash in 2007 as early as July07.

You should have guessed by now that CREDIT is BEAR's weapon of choice and his 2 beneficiaries are $ and Yen. How many times have I been saying this? Since I came to ET in October 2009.


today, Sept. 21, 2010 adding this .....


major moving average crossovers to the upside have occurred!!!!

Danger level Alert = DEFCON 4
 
Divergence%209.21.jpg


significant divergence here that will soon be corrected. my guess is that FI wins.
 
Taking the HERD's temperature


Media reports of rampant Doom and Gloom all over the place has caused many superficial technical people to conclude that the market must go higher.

It bothered me. But thanks to my teacher, Prechter, he cleared it up nicely for me.

Its so simple and it follows my rule about Price, that I'm amazed I let myself be swayed by these stupid Media reports.

It won't happen again. This lesson is now cast in stone.

The Lesson is "stick with the actual sentiment readings"

The one I like and use the most is the DSI, which stands at 83% for the S&P500. That is defo not a bottom!!!!

more on this in the next post
 
extracts from Prechter's notes - I rely on him for such info as his outfit checks out and confirms the numbers before publishing.



Mutual funds’ cash holdings have just reached 3.4%, the lowest reading in the 60-year history of the indicator!

Mutual funds’ cash holdings have just reached 3.4%, the lowest reading in the 60-year history of the indicator! In other words, funds are 96.6% invested. Previous extreme readings occurred in 2000 and 2007. Even in the minor setback of the early 1990s, mutual fund managers got worried enough to get up to double-digit percentages of cash. But now they are more optimistic than ever.
 
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