Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
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That's unfair, gobar.
As far as Dow Jones is concerned this is the only significant top I've called at ET - its part of the overall TOP call from my TA thread. I've called other intrument tops but they don't belong in this thread.
But I do have perfect timing here - first short is April 27, just one day after the top - nobody can match that. So until I'm proved wrong by the April 26 top being exceeded, this is a perfect topcall thus far.
What you don't get is that the market can go sideways for any number of weeks. The TOP is still holding. It is therefore thus far a perfect call.
It might not be making any net money for trendriders but I don't see traders making anything either. its all over the news daily - frustration and losses.
The whole idea is to get your postions in and then ride the trend when it decides to get going. If I'm wrong about the whole thing, I close out after the stop at just above April 26 closing high.
If this CALL works out nicely and the market progresses as per my call, 2 years from now you will look back at your comment and conclude how stupid you were to nickel and dime me about profits near the top of the bullmarket when the entire bearmarket was yet to come.
I don't expect we'll have to wait much longer, hence the recent CALL.
regards
You closed the thread?
Fckin idiot, you couldn't take out a burger out of a takeout stand.
But I'm glad you're back. You're getting killed in your stocks thread. I had already put aside some cash to buy you a coffin and a separate sepulchre just for your nailed ass.
I have the same answer for you - sideways action says zip - the April 26 top is holding - so this call is correct. Until that changes, that's the way it is.
But like I said, just wait a few days and the market will answer you loud and clear.
Welcome back
sorry I missed that last part of your post, gobar.
if all you care about is timing, then you should be bringing some broads over so we can hump them together. My CALL is a perfectly timed call thus far.
Wolf and Shepherd story - yes I know it and its implications. I don't like it. But again, this is only one call. The top is holding. Its still the same call. OK?
someday I'll be right and my post will have no value?
I've been correct from day 1 of this thread. Only dow Jones can prove me wrong by exceeding the top.
You will have my admission of wrong immediately right here.
Quote from deadbroke:
the explanation
For a topping or bottoming pattern to be a valid reversal pattern there must first of all be AN ESTABLISHED TREND in place prior to the pattern.
so, in application to the Dow Jones ....
yes by the time we got to March, April, May 2010 we had a nice well-established uptrend from March 2009. Therefore whatever reversal pattern we saw, would at least be valid on this basis.
But to call a reverse H&S July 2010 with the market top at April 26, 2010 .... ? ... where the fck is the ESTABLISHED downtrend? There isn't any! At best we have a trend transition etc., etc.,
That's why I said, "if the market does go up bigtime, it won't be because of any such reverse H&S"
Dig?
STAT: Not a single technical trader at ET got this concept - neither here in this thread or any other thread where this applies!
this was the explanation I posted back then. OK, I'll continue with this in the next post.
Using the 2 previous posts as springboard ....
so many technicians and experts too make this same mistake about REVERSAL PATTERNS. They see a Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern and they instantly go, "neckline is broken topside so a new bullrun underway.
As the previous post makes very clear, for a REVERSAL FORMATION to be valid there must be something to reverse in the first place - and what is that something? Why of course it is the TREND - and dig this, that TREND must be a well established trend.
That's why I said all the idiots who were calling for a reverse Head and shoulders that could lead to a new bullmarket were WRONG.
So if there was a breakout topside it would just be a trendline break, that's all.
To have a reverse H&S be a valid pattern there must have been in place a long bearrun. What we have here is a bullrun from March 2009, not a bearrun.
Dig?
so many technicians and experts too make this same mistake about REVERSAL PATTERNS. They see a Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern and they instantly go, "neckline is broken topside so a new bullrun underway.
As the previous post makes very clear, for a REVERSAL FORMATION to be valid there must be something to reverse in the first place - and what is that something? Why of course it is the TREND - and dig this, that TREND must be a well established trend.
That's why I said all the idiots who were calling for a reverse Head and shoulders that could lead to a new bullmarket were WRONG.
So if there was a breakout topside it would just be a trendline break, that's all.
To have a reverse H&S be a valid pattern there must have been in place a long bearrun. What we have here is a bullrun from March 2009, not a bearrun.
Dig?
This post says exactly what I said only so much better as its directly from the TA book by Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of stock trends, 9th edition. ...... and dig this, its written by Robert Prechter here so it has double weight because its easy to see his reverence toward the classic book.
enjoy ... its packed with meat. I personally will never ever foget any part of it ever!!! Its embedded permanently.
Oh one other thing - to all those cocksuckers who gave me shit in the first part of the thread about this very same Head and Shoulders pattern, now that the bible is verifying what I wrote, stick it up your ass, morons!!!!!
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...oulders-Stock-Market-Pattern-Still-Valid.aspx
enjoy ... its packed with meat. I personally will never ever foget any part of it ever!!! Its embedded permanently.
Oh one other thing - to all those cocksuckers who gave me shit in the first part of the thread about this very same Head and Shoulders pattern, now that the bible is verifying what I wrote, stick it up your ass, morons!!!!!
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...oulders-Stock-Market-Pattern-Still-Valid.aspx
Quote from deadbroke:
This post says exactly what I said only so much better as its directly from the TA book by Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of stock trends, 9th edition. ...... and dig this, its written by Robert Prechter here so it has double weight because its easy to see his reverence toward the classic book.
enjoy ... its packed with meat. I personally will never ever foget any part of it ever!!! Its embedded permanently.
Oh one other thing - to all those cocksuckers who gave me shit in the first part of the thread about this very same Head and Shoulders pattern, now that the bible is verifying what I wrote, stick it up your ass, morons!!!!!
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...oulders-Stock-Market-Pattern-Still-Valid.aspx
"Earlier this year, EWI's Robert Prechter described a "head and shoulders" pattern in the Dow Jones Industrials, saying it started in 1998 and is still unfolding...."
i stopped reading after the first paragraph. a crock of sh*t!
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