Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from MKTrader:

Yes, it retraced about 50% from its first major down leg. Look up $NIKK on stockcharts.com and select a period between the fall of 1989 and early 1991 on a weekly chart.

The Dow did a similar retracement after the first big move down after the 1929-1930 crash.

I'm not saying it will play out exactly like either of those scenarios but it's possible. As for for prolonged deflation, or deflation-followed-by-hyperinflation, etc., those are certainly possible. Right now, nothing gives me any hope that we won't have that sort of train wreck. Hopefully things will change, but that's what it looks like now.

Super low interest rates + QE + propped up zombie banks. That all sounds very familiar. We just don't have the savings or general thriftiness of the Japanese going into this, though...

Print off a few of your recent posts and take a look at them in 1-2 years. Then ask yourself what you missed. You are failing to look beyond US borders and the earnings reports are strong mainly due to international business.

Look at the Canadian banks. What aspect of the US economy has affected them and limited them to ONLY billion dollar earnings reports ? Their US operations are in general mediocre lately but the OVERALL earnings are strong. So what are those banks doing ? They are looking to buy up US operations at distressed prices, so that when the US economy recovers they make money off it.

Yes, there are idiotic US companies like Citibank. But look beyond them to stronger companies. Look at the new m&a activity which suggests many US firms do not agree that the future is bleak.

Who do I believe more ? Intel, TD Bank, BHP Billiton, ... . OR the permabear Elitetraders who insist the sky is falling over and over again. Well, I remember the posts when S&P 500 hit 1041 and it was obvious techically the market was going up, that the permabears here were even more adamant of an impending crash. Boy, what BAD TIMING !!!

Ok, I admit there is some chance the US markets could fall, but hedge your bets and invest in other countries or strong multinationals you'll be fine.

 

[fullblotter]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Print off a few of your recent posts and take a look at them in 1-2 years. Then ask yourself what you missed. You are failing to look beyond US borders and the earnings reports are strong mainly due to international business.

Look at the Canadian banks. What aspect of the US economy has affected them and limited them to ONLY billion dollar earnings reports ? Their US operations are in general mediocre lately but the OVERALL earnings are strong. So what are those banks doing ? They are looking to buy up US operations at distressed prices, so that when the US economy recovers they make money off it.

Yes, there are idiotic US companies like Citibank. But look beyond them to stronger companies. Look at the new m&a activity which suggests many US firms do not agree that the future is bleak.

Who do I believe more ? Intel, TD Bank, BHP Billiton, ... . OR the permabear Elitetraders who insist the sky is falling over and over again. Well, I remember the posts when S&P 500 hit 1041 and it was obvious techically the market was going up, that the permabears here were even more adamant of an impending crash. Boy, what BAD TIMING !!!

Ok, I admit there is some chance the US markets could fall, but hedge your bets and invest in other countries or strong multinationals you'll be fine.

oh boy, if you are relying on anything canadian to lead some sort of recovery then it's not looking good for the world. stone age here we come...

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from fullblotter:

oh boy, if you are relying on anything canadian to lead some sort of recovery then it's not looking good for the world. stone age here we come...

Typical dumb American nonesense, the US really needs to beef up its education system this is part of the problem. George W. Bush was your leader for god's sake, kind of symbolic of a country gone wrong and change being forced on them.

Just what kind of populace elects Bush for a second term ???
Really now, its truly embarrassing.

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Typical dumb American nonesense, the US really needs to beef up its education system this is part of the problem. George W. Bush was your leader for god's sake, kind of symbolic of a country gone wrong and change being forced on them.

Just what kind of populace elects Bush for a second term ???
Really now, its truly embarrassing.

Really, really now, just shut up. You're from a country that has "cheap" (price-controlled) meds because you free ride the R&D of U.S. pharma companies. Much of your wealth is due to natural resources. I mean do you really want to compare the cars, computers, appliances, etc. that you produce to that of the U.S. or Japan? I didn't think so. So much for your snooty attitude and "great education.' No wonder you love our current president, who never had a real job and couldn't run a lemonade stand.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

It's official you are clueless. The larger trend is NOT DOWN. In fact, if we are to extend your foolish way of looking at things the Dow has been in a larger upward trend since ... wait for it ...
the year 1929.

So you think we have a "Trend Violation" in 2009 which seems to be goofy speak for a "Extended Bull Trend that Violates My Theory".

Correct! It goes like this .... and is on page 2 ....

PRIMARY Bull starts from 1700s, rises into 1929 top, corrects into 1932 low, then continues north into 2007 top - then corrects into 2016 low. Then continues north to 2090.


This thread is only dealing with the segment 2000-2016. And within this segment there are smaller trends like the one we are in now from March 2009 to current.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV5Ju18A8Ow&feature=youtube_gdata_player

I can see governments implementing this not just in the UK. If they do, then 10 year top formation will be screwed big time. We will have another huge bull market. I know his proposal is limited by practicality, but in light of what may happen if we have a global depression, they can make it work

Instead of just looking at PRICE you're getting caught up in all these FUNDAMENTAL seesaws that you ought to know by definition, lag PRICE.

PRICE already knows that almost every trick in the known book will be thrown at him to try to stop the downdraft. He also knows that ALL attempts will fail. Because his defense is "within the unknown"

 

[deadbroke]

There is one item that if you understood fully, you'd have no trouble agreeing with me .... follows below

There is one BASIC-BASIC that if you truly understand, you will see that it is futile to try to stop this thing. The game is rigged on a 5-3. That is the structure of the HERD collective.

So just get out the british data from the 1700s - I posted it elsewhere and count the waves on monthly. You'll see exactly 5 leading into the 1929 top. Then count 3 down into the 1932 bottom.

Then from 1932 count 5 waves up - ended in October 2007.

Therefore 3 waves down are expected that will at the very least retrace a substantial portion of the rise.

End result for Dow Jones into the sub-1000 region expected, i.e. into the 17-yr consolidation that ended in 1982 or lower because all Manias retrace beyond the start.

Then it will be over and the next bull will get going. That too will run 70+ years and credit will be the fckup.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Don't be such a dildo. If you look at SPX weekly vs NDX weekly back in September/October 2008 you will see exactly what I am talking about, SPX was below 200 SMA & NDX was above it, only when NDX locked below 200 weekly SMA markets went into sell off mode. It's a fact, it looks the same now is also a fact. But another fact is that NDX has a higher low and within a pennant type formation, I have used histogram for a long time & it also suggests a bounce. But even if bounce is not to take place that histo pattern points to a high probability of an umpulse wave starting very shortly, hence a breakout is required to have another fact & trade accordingly, not based on forecast

I use Nas composite for the calculation. In any event I did the Nas/S&P weekly as per your post - weekly trend bull signal on 9-7-07. Still ongoing. The mov crosses confirmed the new bull run nicely back in 9-7-07.

Point here is that the Weekly Nas/S&P did not accommodate the Nasdaq's actual 2008 collapse. Had one relied on the weekly, one would have lost out bigtime and had a few heartattacks in the process.

But the Daily timeframe did it magnificently well - for this current bull for exsample, entry signal to go LONG on Feb 10, 2009, one month before everybody else. Current exit = short signal on 7-6-2010.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from trefoil:

As I said to deadbroke in some other thread he opened, he's not really right: while it's true lower lows are in our future, in my opinion, those lows are only going to happen after this bull is over. Meantime, there's money to be made, lots of it.

So, you are LONG bigtime, right.

Confirm this please.

Thanks.

 

[Petsamo]

Quote from JSSPMK:

you can't benefit from your physical pocessions in the after life.

I don't remember hearing the estate tax. If he's talking taking assets once a person dies, I don't have a problem with that. Force the kids to go to work. I'm in favor of high estate taxes.

Regarding doom and gloom, the government is responsible. They cannot be taking it out on LIVING citizens.