Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
- Start date
- Status
My Vix calls
posted on On June 21, 2010 .... here .....
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168825
------------------------------
the post follows in italics
did I forget to mention .... ?
"Vix daily is now almost at 78.6% retracement AND on the 200-day m.a. = a rocket northbound move?? = Dow Jones LONGS will need coffins in a hurry"
"See what I mean? Huge Futures before the market open, everyone hugely bullish, but the Vix foretold at least a warning. We'll see after the session how good this warning actually was"
Then the thread was closed, the same day, June 21.
And adding this today, July 17, we do see how good the warning was. Amen!
God, do I love TA (both varieties)
-----------------------------------------------
my comments today in hindsight ..... caught that June 21 top perfectly!!!!
posted on On June 21, 2010 .... here .....
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168825
------------------------------
the post follows in italics
did I forget to mention .... ?
"Vix daily is now almost at 78.6% retracement AND on the 200-day m.a. = a rocket northbound move?? = Dow Jones LONGS will need coffins in a hurry"
"See what I mean? Huge Futures before the market open, everyone hugely bullish, but the Vix foretold at least a warning. We'll see after the session how good this warning actually was"
Then the thread was closed, the same day, June 21.
And adding this today, July 17, we do see how good the warning was. Amen!
God, do I love TA (both varieties)
-----------------------------------------------
my comments today in hindsight ..... caught that June 21 top perfectly!!!!
My vix calls
On page 3 of the current thread .... on July 21, 2010
alongside the dinosaur Fat finger sub-call, I hope you guys are paying attention to the VIX as he sits atop the 78.6% retracement of the Fat Finger wave.
Vix, also perched atop the 200-day m.a., was seen whittling on a piece of wood. I got the feeling when he stops whittling, something's gonna happen.
Flush and concommittant with the 200 is the magnificent 144 s.m.a. about to generate a northbound cross. Note that its younger brother the 144 e.m.a already generated a cross on May 19, 2010.
When said cross occurs, BEAR's weaponry will be idolized and lionized as the only extant gravity-proof reverse waterfall gets underway.
Fasten seatbelts!!!
----------------------------
my comments today Aug 20, in hindsight ....
as you can see, I did not get a good result with this call as I was expecting a solid vix rally; but instead it rallied and then went below the 200 m.a.
call quality = poor
it worked out well later, and actually served well as a warning, but ultimately these things are just justifications.
Therefore, Call quality was poor.
---------------------------------
On page 3 of the current thread .... on July 21, 2010
alongside the dinosaur Fat finger sub-call, I hope you guys are paying attention to the VIX as he sits atop the 78.6% retracement of the Fat Finger wave.
Vix, also perched atop the 200-day m.a., was seen whittling on a piece of wood. I got the feeling when he stops whittling, something's gonna happen.
Flush and concommittant with the 200 is the magnificent 144 s.m.a. about to generate a northbound cross. Note that its younger brother the 144 e.m.a already generated a cross on May 19, 2010.
When said cross occurs, BEAR's weaponry will be idolized and lionized as the only extant gravity-proof reverse waterfall gets underway.
Fasten seatbelts!!!
----------------------------
my comments today Aug 20, in hindsight ....
as you can see, I did not get a good result with this call as I was expecting a solid vix rally; but instead it rallied and then went below the 200 m.a.
call quality = poor
it worked out well later, and actually served well as a warning, but ultimately these things are just justifications.
Therefore, Call quality was poor.
---------------------------------
My vix calls
July 28 in the current thread ....
this was not a call, but served as an info warning to be ready
Vix daily chart ... the giant has crossed topside.
Who be the giant?
Gann.
Who be the cross-ee?
The 200 sma.
Who be Gann?
the 144 sma.
Its a hard road Daddy-O, when my job is turning Lead into Gold.
July 28 in the current thread ....
this was not a call, but served as an info warning to be ready
Vix daily chart ... the giant has crossed topside.
Who be the giant?
Gann.
Who be the cross-ee?
The 200 sma.
Who be Gann?
the 144 sma.
Its a hard road Daddy-O, when my job is turning Lead into Gold.
Today's Vix
On weekly Vix sitting just above the 200-week m.a.
weekly Macd just above 0-line support
144 ema weekly x 200 sma and now compressed together = a volatility move?
On Vix monthly we still have the old pattern that I talked about in my TA thread, namely the empire busting double-bottom and/or cup with handle bottoming pattern. After the 2008 rally, the correction in Vix can be seen as the handle of the cup being formed.
We'll see if all this works out. Will take months, but once a breakout occurs above the neckline, we're on our way.
On weekly Vix sitting just above the 200-week m.a.
weekly Macd just above 0-line support
144 ema weekly x 200 sma and now compressed together = a volatility move?
On Vix monthly we still have the old pattern that I talked about in my TA thread, namely the empire busting double-bottom and/or cup with handle bottoming pattern. After the 2008 rally, the correction in Vix can be seen as the handle of the cup being formed.
We'll see if all this works out. Will take months, but once a breakout occurs above the neckline, we're on our way.
I've already posted the Head and Shoulders reversal patterns for the Dow Jones on Monthly and Weekly timeframes. But there is something else that caught my attention today.
I don't believe that anyone has seen it yet. I could be the first. But its also possible that the pattern will fail. And in any event, its usually much easier to see when prices have later on moved far away from the pattern, isolating it at a distance.
Regardless, I want to take a crack at it before anybody else does!!
I'm talking about the beautiful, RARE Diamond Reversal pattern.
The DIAMOND reversed the Dow Jones at the 2000 top and the 2007 crash top. It seems to me BEAR is repeating the pattern.
The next several trading days will shed more light .....
I don't believe that anyone has seen it yet. I could be the first. But its also possible that the pattern will fail. And in any event, its usually much easier to see when prices have later on moved far away from the pattern, isolating it at a distance.
Regardless, I want to take a crack at it before anybody else does!!
I'm talking about the beautiful, RARE Diamond Reversal pattern.
The DIAMOND reversed the Dow Jones at the 2000 top and the 2007 crash top. It seems to me BEAR is repeating the pattern.
The next several trading days will shed more light .....
The diamond formation
(TA of stock trends 9th edition)
(Page 160 - 162, followed by a few graphs showng the pattern occurring in 1945, 1946 and 1947).
The Diamond is not a common pattern. It rarely occurs at bottom reversals. Its natural habitat is major tops and high volume tops which precede extensive intermediate reactions. Measuring formula is ... move from the breakout point will be at least as far as the widest distance between top and bottom of pattern.
And reminding resident clowns, A reversal formation must have something to reverse!
(TA of stock trends 9th edition)
(Page 160 - 162, followed by a few graphs showng the pattern occurring in 1945, 1946 and 1947).
The Diamond is not a common pattern. It rarely occurs at bottom reversals. Its natural habitat is major tops and high volume tops which precede extensive intermediate reactions. Measuring formula is ... move from the breakout point will be at least as far as the widest distance between top and bottom of pattern.
And reminding resident clowns, A reversal formation must have something to reverse!
The Diamond reversal formation that crippled the DOW at the 2000 and 2007 TOPS. This chart is shown on weekly so I could get all three Diamonds into one view. But the current Diamond will be shown on Daily next.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
The 2010 Diamond Reversal Formation .... pattern is incomplete, so it could fail, still I want to try because I might be right.
Besides its a rare and magnificent beast.
Furthermore, it has been confirmed by the cognoscenti that the 2000 and 2007 tops were Diamond driven.
Now it has been clear to me that the Dow bull upwave is one that rode all the way from the 1720s, stopped for wave 4 in the Great Depression in 1929 and then continued upward in wave 5, a terminal wave.
Therefore the current market is still carving out a huge top that started in 2000 with secondary higher top in 2007 and now a tertiary top in 2010. Hence the title of this thread, "10-yr top formation"
If all of this is correct and I do get my big drop, it will be vicious because the top formation will be left behind completely and there will be no more fckin around with namby-pamby up-down moves.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Besides its a rare and magnificent beast.
Furthermore, it has been confirmed by the cognoscenti that the 2000 and 2007 tops were Diamond driven.
Now it has been clear to me that the Dow bull upwave is one that rode all the way from the 1720s, stopped for wave 4 in the Great Depression in 1929 and then continued upward in wave 5, a terminal wave.
Therefore the current market is still carving out a huge top that started in 2000 with secondary higher top in 2007 and now a tertiary top in 2010. Hence the title of this thread, "10-yr top formation"
If all of this is correct and I do get my big drop, it will be vicious because the top formation will be left behind completely and there will be no more fckin around with namby-pamby up-down moves.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
- Status