Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Peronally, although I do like seeking out tops & bottoms, I prefer dealing with facts rather than forecasts - breakouts. Of course there are false breakouts on weekly charts, yet a megaphone is not such a common event on those time frames. Forecasting keeps me interested in analyses, but it is breakouts that I actually bank on. What used to be rather difficult in the past is having to go against directional bias, whenever analyses says market ought to go up & price dictates selling instead. But in time I got used to accepting being wrong in forecasting & being right via a breakout & of course vica versa too, sometimes analyses is correct & price action is misleading. But I have also learnt to accept that.

You're blowing smoke, JP, pissing past my ear and telling me its raining.

What you so eloquently stated above is exactly how E V E R Y O N E at ET trades. Its like you'll have the same father.

You seem to forget that I showed you your folly on several instances re: EurUsd and right here re: Dow or S&P. And I can show you more if you would be so kind to continue making more directional or even breakout calls right here.

Analysis + take the shot = my way ... if correct, my cock comes once or with mistakes, 3-4 times per trend which could last years.

You guys are all (except Stoney) premature ejaculators coming 3-10 times per day and are all pure breakout players with ZERO PRESCIENCE.

I'm new, came here to learn from you, but all I'm getting is the circular motion with the right hand!!

 

[deadbroke]

example of my overall approach is right here in this thread.

It is the same approach for every instrument and for real life non-trading savings and investment.

Dow analysis led me to conclude that the wave up from the Feb 2010 low was the last one - then there would be a reversal. This conclusion came directly from what? From A N A L Y S I S.

So I stepped up the alert and watched momentum and drew another closer trendline when it became available, always watching the mini-wave lows. Then on April 27, 2010 the upper trendline broke.

That was the breakout = breakdown. I took it and closed Long.

Then May 4 and 5 the second trendline broke. I reversed and went short.

Then on subsequent rally attempts at fibo resistance I added to short.

To sum it up .....

(1) Analysis = preparation = setup a plan, incl. when to step up the Defcon Alert.

(2) the strike, progressive yes, and then at a certain point a full-power strike. In this particular case of the dow, the full-ower strike will only come if the July 2 closing low is taken out.

Then my cock will come just once over the next 1-4 years.

 

[coolweb]

yo I don't know what u are still investigating
but this call is over. it may be a 10yr top , but dood, this thread is long gone, u can have this thread up for 10 months , of course we will fall once in those 10 months



Have better timing, Timing is your JOB as a trader.
and its absolutely awful.

 

[deadbroke]

Of course, since one is dealing with speculation, one can even with the best analysis and plan, still be wrong and lose money.

Hey, that's an occupational hazard and is the price of the ticket to play.

Long-term trend-rider so few nowadays, akin to dinosaur - in early new trend or trend transition have nickname Mega-sor-ass.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from stonedinvestor:

Yikes we agree the DOW is going to 10,600! Hummmmmmm.

Well luckily investment sentiment is so bad.


And considering a lack of newsflow after earnings why would you bet against a CROX which should outperform the market on the way up?

Oh the BUTTERFLY EFFECT!


... And that was one of my favorite stories! So the ripple effect of our combined bull call here DB, ensures a rally starting Thursday.~stoney

10,600 is the upper extreme of dow rally possibility. I don't think you're eye-talian but its = Fib 78.6%

10,524 is more of a likely scenario if we get past 10,464.

I gave you my reasons for taking profit on CROX. When this is over, if it turns out I'm right, I'll give you a much more detailed explanation, but knowing you, I doubt you'll be interested.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from stonedinvestor:


Folks, it's been tough these few days I've been back from the beach. I was pretty much diagnosed with a real disease and I am faced with the interesting situation of taking a DNA test or not a test that can only tell me bad news that I'm going to be a real mess as I get older. My wife is too eager for me to take that test, I guess she wants to know what she's in for... I'm not taking it.

Are you covered for any/all treatments stateside? If not and you have to pay out of pocket, I can rec a place. Let me know.

either way, hope you get better and beat this thing.

 

[JSSPMK]

Bought Q10 Gold 1195.3 Go Gold!

Trade initiated on August 4th. Some breakout traders are more worthy than others Master But I do understand when you make comparisons to ET majority, which is rather clueless. My trading is not as perfect as yours, but I am rather satisfied.

Quote from deadbroke:

You're blowing smoke, JP, pissing past my ear and telling me its raining.

What you so eloquently stated above is exactly how E V E R Y O N E at ET trades. Its like you'll have the same father.

You seem to forget that I showed you your folly on several instances re: EurUsd and right here re: Dow or S&P. And I can show you more if you would be so kind to continue making more directional or even breakout calls right here.

Analysis + take the shot = my way ... if correct, my cock comes once or with mistakes, 3-4 times per trend which could last years.

You guys are all (except Stoney) premature ejaculators coming 3-10 times per day and are all pure breakout players with ZERO PRESCIENCE.

I'm new, came here to learn from you, but all I'm getting is the circular motion with the right hand!!

 

[Trvlwanderer]

At some point in time, this top call MAY become correct. I see the upper end keeps extending as we creep higher, hahaha!

I'll go out on a limb and make my first "call".

I will predict ES at 1169.75 SOMETIME in the future. Now, you must consider that it can go to 400 on the low end before we get there, or it could gap over 1169.75 and go to 2000, but at some point in time it will print 1169.75.

Wow, that was easy.

Now I just need to condescend and bash for the next several weeks while vomitting the same old spew from trading books, magazines, and newsletters.

I could be a lawyer or politician if trading ever fails, LOL! Or even a fake Marine, right riggsy?

 

[stonedinvestor]

This thread just keeps maturing like a fine wine. I have no doubt that I can come back around labor day and still find the argument if full force.

DB touched on an ultimate truth in investing and I'll fluff it out.

- Most every TA service and daytrader all trade the same way.

(a)Scan for pre market stocks with the greatest moves and volume.

(b) Wait for the opening sprint and then the on'es that pop the most you buy on the first flag or pullback.

(c) They sell after a few cents.

Because the market is going nowhere for ten years now and counting we have lost the break out spotters in the middle of a range and the trend reversal spotters on down and out stocks. That is a fact.

- I can make money each & every day like this. I choose not to. Why? (a) I come from an era when heavy research was the norm, I become somewhat attached to my ideas which any book will tell you is a mistake. (b) I like to make $10 a share on mid and large cap and at least $2,000 on small caps. (c) I invest in actual ideas that I believe in, I commit. I use TA for various reasons but not as a religion. (d) I am sending my ideas into a hedge fund manager who is kind enough to oversee my account and he really doesn't want to hear from me more than once or twice a week. For example I had to bother him on vacation yesterday about CF and to tell him the rally was starting today.

- So what's left of investors are in a few camps-- (a) buy and hold forever (shrinking pool) (b) Active investors with 3 week to 3 month holding times (shrinking pool, me in it) (c) Flippers who hunt volume and often buy stocks that they don't even know what they produce or do. The actual idea of a stock market has been bastardized-- of each stock representing a product or idea -- instead all these sexy instruments of failure, index funds, options, E-mini's etc... add to a Las Vegasing of the market and a realization that we are buying and selling nothing but paper and promises. The companies endless issuing of stock at $0 to their employees and then letting them cash out just contributes to this one sided evil empire. If you want to make real money in the market be in one of these companies that gives the stock away OR be rich enough to get the special preferred deals that are out there.

As DB has pointed out true Trend Spotters are hard to find-- but to those hedge fund managers that made a killing of the ruining of America's dream of owning a home-- give them credit they spotted a bubble and profited from it.

Now as to CROX-- this is a fine example of Fundi vs TA except for the fact that I see good TA as well, so this may be more of a test of who can read charts better...

Anyway on to the rally- A Nation Refinances one more time! Will they save now or spend???? That is the plan. Get Gov spending back to 2007 levels. Speed up the remaining stimulus yet to be spent and give us a split government. Force companies to hire through incentives and get ready for a SERIOUS AMOUNT OF M&A.

Cash rich companies who are stock price poor will be gobbled up for the remainder of the year-- many of these will be small cap. When I return I wil certainly have my M&A hat on and be looking for companies that will be bought.

The new rumor is American Eagle Outfitters. ~ stoney

 

[stonedinvestor]

COULD YOU HAVE A WORSE CHART THAN BUCKLE DB?

I mean it's a ski slope with no mogals from $40 to wherever it opens today. They just reported a very bad qtr-

The Buckle Inc., which operates teen retail stores, said Thursday that net income slid 17 percent during the second quarter as higher costs collided with weakening sales.

Revenue at stores open at least a year fell 7.3 percent in the quarter. The cost of sales, which includes buying, distribution and occupancy costs, rose to $113.3 million from $110.6 million a year ago.

Teen merchants were among the hardest hit in the second-quarter as consumers began to pull back on spending. Despite deep discounts and hotter weather that drove more customers into stores, Americans were slower to part with their money as a slow economic recovery drags on.

The Kearney, Neb., company earned $20.7 million, or 44 cents per share, compared with about $25 million, or 54 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Revenue fell 2 percent to $188.6 million from $192.9 million a year earlier.

The results fell short of what Wall Street was expecting. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected net income of 49 cents per share on revenue of $192.4 million.

>> But is that 2 year support at $20? If this get's to $22 what could $22K turn into if they were to be bought out?... I have a large WEN position going nowhere I believe I may take a bottom shot at Buckle today! Hummmmmmm.~si