Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

Status
Not open for further replies.
the explanation

For a topping or bottoming pattern to be a valid reversal pattern there must first of all be AN ESTABLISHED TREND in place prior to the pattern.

so, in application to the Dow Jones ....

yes by the time we got to March, April, May 2010 we had a nice well-established uptrend from March 2009. Therefore whatever reversal pattern we saw, would at least be valid on this basis.

But to call a reverse H&S July 2010 with the market top at April 26, 2010 .... ? ... where the fck is the ESTABLISHED downtrend? There isn't any! At best we have a trend transition etc., etc.,

That's why I said, "if the market does go up bigtime, it won't be because of any such reverse H&S"

Dig? :)

STAT: Not a single technical trader at ET got this concept - neither here in this thread or any other thread where this applies!
 
Quote from Fishaman:

Stoney,

You may be describing CMT. (Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease.)

Here's a link with some info:

http://www.charcot-marie-tooth.org/about_cmt/symptoms.php

Best,

Fishaman
More...

Well thanks Fishman, yes that's it; boy it doesn't read well does it? I won't kid I'm freaking out. Some people need a resperator! How will I smoke with that! Then how will I invest! Leg Braces; hand trembling, jesus I'm zsa zsa Gabor all the sudden. I always envisioned I would grow old gracefully because I have kept my youthful looks this far and most of my hair... this is really scary and worst of all progressive.

I kept my kids cord blood. Those yummy youthful stem cells I was saving them for him but now I want them. I want those cells in my body in my hands and in my feet. I wonder if I can find a Dr to do this legally. Oh the misery! I have a big dead tooth up front grayer than gray I already am the tooth now it's marie-tooth disease!

Oh boy. what a revelation I feel like I've gone through this all with you kind folks at ET, I'm glad I came back in time to figure this all out and you all were here for me. Only two ETers have been mean Jack Hershey and someone who doesn't matter. (no they are not the same person!)

Big fight with the wife this morning about her damn yoga teaching crap... hummmm.

FUTURES UP!> In anticipation of Thursday's rally we are setting up for a up day.
I'll go through our ideas and be back to you soon. ~stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:



I am THINKING STRONGLY ABOUT CROX HERE! It's on support and ready to move higher coming off a SUPER earnings reports a while back. We need a stock that can GO UP and CROX is that stock.


As I see it these are the names to play this week-- #1 - CROX and then
More...


best of luck with the med. condition. :)

------------------

Re: CROX


Have you noticed the Dragonfly doji a the top, the high volume accompanying the dragonfly, followed by a hammer the next day, then the gapdown, then the smaller trendline break on Aug 13 and 16?

A close below the larger trendline @ 11.24 might indicate the TOP is in.

In any event investors should be totally gone if close < 10.04 and can't get back above 144 ma.


:) :)




Uploaded with ImageShack.us
 
Geeze DB you want to go against a stock pick of mine? You must be absolutely bonkers but be my guest. I can lay out a fundamental story that will out fly any butterfly.

Ok we got the PACTIVE deal folks! But it's for a lousy $33.25... I got you in just the other day at $31.00. Sure it's It's two grand in two days I should be happy but I'm not. I really thought we had a chance at $36.00 area in a buyout.

ROLLING that garbage bag stock into CROX! So it's on DB. Options activity clearly show a stock being played both ways $14 is the area in which this stock will stop but as you can see we are at $13.00 so that is a GUARANTEED ONE DOLLAR and then after options expire we shall go UP in a big way.

Take a longer look at the chart and squint a bit... I see a bright technical picture and after all my research and reading of Conference Calls I have a fundamental picture of this brand that is very bright indeed.

BUY CROX @$13.00

And in case you have forgotten

BUY PWER @ $ 11.00

WATCH PPO!

ThaNKS for the nice words on the health condition DB and I hope all of you guys who went into Pactive with me aren't too disappointed about the purchase price.
At least it came quickly and you made money.~ stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

ALRIGHT GUT INSTINCT TIME-

I put the Domtar position back to work and BOUGHT 1000 PACTIVE. PTV @ $31.00 When you run a portfolio or two there is a lot of pressure to duplicate the type of weighting the stock you just sold was so I couldn't just flip a paper company into a tech stock although I do this crap all the time like that. But my thoughts here are I've been hearing the chatter for some time about a buyout of PTV. I know and like management & the stock from way back and the first printed talk of a buyout was in a Wall Street Journal Online piece dated May 19 and the stk was around $29.

So here we have a quasi industrial (packaging consumer) play that is hefty garbage bags and that dovetails nicely from a paper company. Here to we have GREAT UPSIDE POSSIBILITIES AND MAYBE OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS!!!! And rather limited downside to $28 which I can handle.

RESULT>

Pactiv, the maker of Hefty trash bags, agreed to be acquired by New Zealand’s Rank Group in a deal valued at about $4.4 billion, excluding debt.

Pactiv will become part of Rank’s Reynolds Group Holdings subsidiary, which makes food and beverage packaging and storage products, including Reynold’s Wrap aluminum foil.

Pactiv shareholders will receive $33.25 ...
Rank beat out Koch Industries and PE fir

I'm surprised you folks aren't more impressed if it had been a better payout I'd be in rare form I can assure you. Nailing an M&A with so little time spent in the stock is a positive surprise.

One of the constructive things you can do is follow the stock you sold on a weakening technical picture and a bit of gust instinct. UFS fell and kissed $59! Had I been more on the ball I would of rescooped that name as it has recovered quite nicely. Now I will watch the market and see if that low area of $59 comes into play again in the near future for the LT chart potential of UFS is quite great despite the $11 we made in the name in 3 weeks. ~stoney
More...
 
Ok CF has pulled in with an $88 area print now. We were hoping for $87 and still may get it. The question is do we buy a name simply because another in the field got an buyout offer? I'm not sure. CF is a solid co though. I've sent an probing email to the hedge fund lets see what they say.

CROX UP 4%! Ya who give you das Alpha? Ya-- Boy oh boy what a sweet pickup that was this morning. Folks it's why I race home and hit the computer research research research... EXTENDING.....

PPO- was that $29 we just crossed!!!! I have a nice block from $24 which I'm happy about I did not buy this morning which I'm not that happy about. This name is heading to $35.

A stock I like very much is HXL... they sell into aerospace and that's a hot market with the planes actively retooling. This name Hexcel has a very strong chart but I thought a little too much overhead at $19... It's reacting well today taking back 5 days of losses in one swoop. lets move this idea forward on the list.-HXL-

My worst problem right now is I got shook out of a NANO position before earnings and the stock has run away from me. This was a big mistake and the lack of NANO will hamper my portfolios... up 10% today. This is a large F up and why you shouldn't sell a stock despite technicals that flash sell... the fundamental story always triumphs and in all the fear mongering of the over all market I forgot that.~si
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Geeze DB you want to go against a stock pick of mine? You must be absolutely bonkers but be my guest. I can lay out a fundamental story that will out fly any butterfly.

Ok we got the PACTIVE deal folks! But it's for a lousy $33.25... I got you in just the other day at $31.00. Sure it's It's two grand in two days I should be happy but I'm not. I really thought we had a chance at $36.00 area in a buyout.

ROLLING that garbage bag stock into CROX! So it's on DB. Options activity clearly show a stock being played both ways $14 is the area in which this stock will stop but as you can see we are at $13.00 so that is a GUARANTEED ONE DOLLAR and then after options expire we shall go UP in a big way.

Take a longer look at the chart and squint a bit... I see a bright technical picture and after all my research and reading of Conference Calls I have a fundamental picture of this brand that is very bright indeed.

BUY CROX @$13.00

And in case you have forgotten

BUY PWER @ $ 11.00

WATCH PPO!

ThaNKS for the nice words on the health condition DB and I hope all of you guys who went into Pactive with me aren't too disappointed about the purchase price.
At least it came quickly and you made money.~ stoney
More...



Stoney, I wouldn't dream of going against you in a stock contest. I'd lose for sure! :) :) But what if the technical side is showing a top?

Remember the one-sided chat about fundamentals and/or versus TA? Well here's an opportunity to find out ... live ... I know zip about CROX, don't know the product, the analysts, the earnings, bal sheet or anything. But I can use TA and hammer out a good return for both traders and investors.

The proof will be right here. :)
 
SO YOU WANT TO DRAW A CROX IN THE SAND!

Well, I do wish it were another of my names, I am going out on a bit of a limb here, but this really will be more of a statement on retail the consumer and back to school than an overall top in the market or what you perceive to see as a top in this stock?????( Channel reading clearly indicates a target of $20 1 yr and a ST target of $15)

Let's agree to sell at $16.00 together in two weeks! ~ stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

the fundamental story always triumphs .~si
More...


Carl Swendlin's grandson will also swear to that theory and he's a frequent visitor to this thread. Heck, on page 1 he called me a domestic terrorist!!! :D :D

OK, we're on with CROX ........ :)
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

SO YOU WANT TO DRAW A CROX IN THE SAND!

Well, I do wish it were another of my names, I am going out on a bit of a limb here, but this really will be more of a statement on retail the consumer and back to school than an overall top in the market or what you perceive to see as a top in this stock?????( Channel reading clearly indicates a target of $20 1 yr and a ST target of $15)

Let's agree to sell at $18.00 together in two weeks! ~ stoney
More...


Yeah, a CROX in the sand it is, Stoney. :)

Have you noticed all the threads at ET about Fundamentals versus Technicals? Its a never ending battle and thus far nothing is resolved.

I have the requirements to take up the TA side because I know absolutely zip about the fundamentals of CROX. I mean, really zip.

And if I win, we'll do another just to prove its not a fluke. And then another. OK? :) :) :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top