Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from MarketMasher:

Nice. But I think your margin of error (3rd post, DOW 10654) was exceeded a while ago triggering your stop.

Anyway, nice try. :)
More...



Not so. The STOP for the position is above the April 26 top. Very clearly stated on page 1.

The margin of error post just shows my comfort zone which is the normal area for a wave 2 retracement, i.e. 38.2% - 61.8%. .... once the dow gets above the 61.8% retracement towards the 78.6% level, my level of stress increases along with the chances of failure. The Dow in this case did get slightly above the 61.8% level on high momentum. Yes, that did bother me. But he u-turned nicely.

:)
 
Live example of hocus-pocus ... happening from shortly after the market open today and still going on ...

Dow opened sharply down and then recovered quite a bit and was off about 50 points or so.

CNBC and guests were commenting quite a bit about this.

But in reality there is nothing to talk about. Why? ...

Dow at 200 m.a. on 60-min. = support

Nas @ 50% fib on 60-min. = support

S&P500 @ 38.2% Fib on 60-min. = support

:) :)
 
refer to the thread below for several mentions of the super importance of keeping track of Nasdaq versus S&P500 on Daily chart and how it foretold the March 2009 rally and lately when it broke a trendline on June 7 and violation on July 6, 2010 ....

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613&highlight=lambda

--------------------

Now hear this ...


Nas vs S&P500 just poked below the 200-day m.a. YESTERDAY.

Its not yet a clean break and she could bounce, taking everything with her. But if she can't bounce and sinks like a stone, its bad news.

And here's the kicker ...

Nas vs S&P500 has started making a series of lower highs and lower lows. It would be a stretch to expect anyone from ET to know what that means. :) :) :D
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:


For Those of you who joined me last wed with DOMTAR, I know a bunch of you are with me... Here we go

Our paper play UFS has brought us $5 grand and the nice thing is it is basing now up around the $55 level before earnings this Friday morning. After earnings we will be around $63 and you all can make your own decisions about what to do.

The key to the trade was to find a somewhat cyclical play that wouldn't barf every time the usual fertalizer suspects sell down. A stock that is slated to beat numbers and a tight time frame for a $10 trade. I think we did all of that and only on two days of research. Not bad. Our back up idea Cliff CLF you can see how that insists on taking a good step back before maybe going higher.......

GREETINGS AND HELLO MY FEET STILL TINGLE.

Forgive me I have not read along in this thread since my vacation I just got in today and I wanted to touch base with DOMTAR. Yes I missed the top out yesterday @ $64!!! I nailed the trade top to within a $1 and I gave you $10 UPSIDE as promised AND in the face of a pretty good sized sell off. A Profit of $11,200 while on vacation. Not bad. Tell me folks where else are you getting this kind of love?

I'll admit I've been afraid to punch up PPO & KEM & CTFO& REFR our other buys in this thread and that week but hey--- lets focus on the good. I promised and I delivered in the face of a tough ass market. Some want to drone on and on about the end of the world I just wanted to get you all $11 grand so you could take a vacation this year too.

I want to talk about this guy who jumped out of the airplane on the slide-- this is one of the great Homer Simpson moments that we will ever witness in our lifetime.
More on him later.

The urge is to jump right in here too and invest- since trading accounts are full o' cash but I'm not sure where we are at with the market right now. Sometimes the market is dumb as an ox: we start the year saying stimulus can only do so much it can only hold the line and hopefully hand off to corporate and then the consumer; everyone said we would slow down... my work has us slipping to 2.1% GDP and then picking it back up... what is the big reveal here? Why did the market plunge 220 points?

It's that scary confidence in the fed thing, and when that snowballs and the news givers become the news drivers and the market senses weakness and begins to force hands... things can get very ugly very fast. There was a picture of Bernake in the Times that I did not like- the editors shape the mood and that eventually becomes fact. There was Bernake, weak-kind of slumped over and pained he was... there is a feeling of panic in that fed statement and their actions and that's a scary thing. Fortunately these guys tend to be as stupid as everyone else and the economy will surprise them as it will surprise us.

What will ever get this money out of bonds? We need folks to lose principle in a huge scandal I can't think of anything else... Bernie M where are you!

Has this last fall in the market ushered in the age of the dividend capture? or will taxes screw all of that? I have some big thinking to do & I have to go out to dinner!@ darn wife. She's got me scheduled up already. ~stoney
More...
 
BACK IN THE SADDLE AGAIN!

Nothing like some beach time to put some perspective into trading. Why I ask do the waves look so small when laying on your blanket in the sand yet when you walk to the ocean suddenly they look bigger and bigger to the point where you can't get in?

Then you walk back to your towel and the waves look small again... why is it so hard to take that plunge and just get in?... Think about it.

Well it's been an active start to my work week. The fridge was left open for 13 days. There was water all over my bathroom floor from a leak in I hope the back of the toilet. My living room cable tv is broke...

Today we will touch base with all our lovely stocks and I have been thinking since 6:00 this morning how I can provide you all with yet ANOTHER huge return in the next month or so... I may be onto something- more later.

In general this thread has fallen into disrepair again, I'm not sure I can keep popping in and fixing it. It's kind of like playing football-- talk is just that-- talk. It's easy to make drastic scary proclamations when you have no skin in the game. I hope my success as a normal guy private investor can show you all that it can still be done-- you can make money staying at home and have a lot of fun doing so, but first you must stare at that big wave of negativity and jump right through it.

My isolated day trade of today I feel will be PWER.

PWER- was $12 up 21% on huge earnings when I left for the beach.
- Hit high of $13 on Aug 10!
- Somehow is now $10.76 down 6.6% yesterday.
- Still way above it's moving averages PWER is a RIPE bounce candidate.

My 3 to 6 month idea was FNSR which we were waiting for a pull back in and got.
However, Cisco's earnings report seems to have driven a stock specific downgrade of FNSR so I will have to wait and see how that all shakes out.

A safer play would be PACTIVE (PTV), a stock in which there is a lot of take out chatter about.

Now would normally be when I clean my wife's side of the dresser and get inspired for the trading day- but I've got the handyman in and out with the toilet leak so I am a bit trapped.~stoney
 
Thanks Stoney, always appreciative of your posts.

I came home after a nice vacation to a similar pain in the ass. Power out in the deep freeze which was just stocked with a half side of beef. Total loss.

Moral: No crying over spoiled beef.
 
Yes, a good saying! I hear from the woods that my tomatoes are starting to turn red!!! Now I have allowed a woodchuck to dig a huge birm nearby under a Christmas pine and he has actually managed to hook his fat ass up and have kids... I love animals... but if they nibble on my tomatoes after all this work I shall get the garden hose out and make a horror movie out of that den!!!

ALRIGHT GUT INSTINCT TIME-

I put the Domtar position back to work and BOUGHT 1000 PACTIVE. PTV @ $31.00 When you run a portfolio or two there is a lot of pressure to duplicate the type of weighting the stock you just sold was so I couldn't just flip a paper company into a tech stock although I do this crap all the time like that. But my thoughts here are I've been hearing the chatter for some time about a buyout of PTV. I know and like management & the stock from way back and the first printed talk of a buyout was in a Wall Street Journal Online piece dated May 19 and the stk was around $29.

So here we have a quasi industrial (packaging consumer) play that is hefty garbage bags and that dovetails nicely from a paper company. Here to we have GREAT UPSIDE POSSIBILITIES AND MAYBE OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS!!!! And rather limited downside to $28 which I can handle.

Ok now on to the sexy stuff...~ stoney
 
I know I said I was going to lay back and not jump right in but I just can't help it.
Until one is severely burned a few times in a row it's just so very tough to sit here and not put ideas to work.

BOUGHT 1000 PWER @ $ 10.78.

Here is what I have discovered a conversion of notes on Aug 11 has left a bunch of folks with shares given out at $2! Oh to be in on THOSE types of deals... they all got paid 8% to wait for their $2 stock that trades for $11... it's almost criminally good. You have to have a lot of cash to get these deals. Anyway that 6% yesterday is those cats heading for the doors and rightly so.. .when that selling abates it only makes sense this stock goes up. Have I jumped the gun? I don't think so.~ stoney

STORY-
CAMARILLO, Calif., Aug 11, 2010 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Power-One, Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!pwer/quotes/nls/pwer (PWER 10.85, +0.09, +0.82%) , a leading provider of renewable energy and energy-efficient power conversion and power management solutions, today announced that 100% of the registered holders of its 8% Senior Secured Convertible Notes due 2013 (the "Notes") elected to exercise their right to convert the principal amount of the outstanding Notes into Power-One, Inc. common stock. The Notes were originally issued on June 17, 2008 in the aggregate principal amount of $80 million. As a result of repurchases of a portion of the Notes by Power-One, the principal amount of the outstanding Notes was approximately $34.25 million.

Consistent with the terms of the Notes, Power-One issued common stock at a conversion rate of 500 shares of common stock for each $1,000 principal amount of Notes converted. The conversion rate was equivalent to a price of $2.00 per share. In aggregate, Power-One issued 17,125,000 shares of common stock from the period of July 6, 2010 through August 10, 2010. As of today, Power-One has approximately 106 million common shares outstanding.
 
Just some housekeeping now and then I'll take a long lunch, back is starting to hurt in this chair. It's tough I've been laying about and slathering myself with lotion for 13 days in a row! No rain>

ok SI stocks I might sell--

recent buy KEMET has stagnated at $3.17 we bought in at $3.31 I believe it's leveraged to a economic turn... could easily bail here...

UA had great numbers but everyone is soooo promotional now have a meager $2 grand gain might take it.

IOC- This folks is a sell now and I'll post in the stock section as well for we covered it. Stoney got you in at $52 Stoney gets you out at $65. Your Welcome.

REFR- Hasn't gone down much hasn't gone up... could booot.

DGIT- had good numbers we never bought it so it doesn't matter.

GAME- we left it at $6.80 and we come back to $6.82 in the face of mother market that's called RS! High on my watch list now.

CDZI (covered in stocks) was $12 is $11 no volume. Have not bought yet.

AKRX Have not bought this one either but was a little over $3 and after the slide here we are at $3 again. It just never seems to go anywhere. Might be a great 60 cent multiple buy sort of stock.

CTFO! I gave you a risky China play and while i was away China crashed and so did we CTFO was at $7.24 and we are now slightly ABOVE, that's called RS folks!

LF-- totally asleep at $5 never bought.

OVTI in a channel now $22 to $24, wait for the market to turn but holding up real well... that's called RS folks!

IDT-- we only briefly covered this IBD darling they do pre paid calling cards and for such a sexy mover here it is at the TOP of it's range holding $17. very impressive. Don't own it.

IRWD- has been a trading vehicle for me it likes to go up from where it is now (around $10.) so I'm afraid to go for a third run and push my luck but... crazier things have been known to happen!

MATK- Has struggled but it's a name I REALLY believe in using fish oil for kids formula is a smart bet. Holding.

PPO- Did a rocket shot for us but it keeps having trouble with $26 area. Holding should of maybe sold yesterday.

Ok folks that covers a lot all that remains is this one biotech idea that I'm kind of hot on. I'll probably feature it in Stocks because that area of ET needs a big kick in the pants to freshen up the conversations. You might laugh or cry in an unstoppable way if I told you the name-- that's a hint...

Despite the market going NOWHERe if you notice stonedinvesting is doing really well it's because WE ARE! Something in our trading system that allows for good RS in down markets and upside in good and bad markets alike... it's a special little something we call " Good Stock Picking " or GSP.

I had some T shirts made up recently " Stony's GSP- Smokin' The Market Down To The Last little Bit " But some guy in tight Euro shorts from Canada told me he had the initials copyrighted and would place a foot inside my sternum unless I ceased and desisted which I hearby do.

Lets eat something~stoney
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top