Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

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deadbroke,

While I will not contest your April top call, the current trend on the Dow is up. It has been 7/6/2010. All I can see is a slow down in the acceleration of an up trend.

Caveat Emptor
:)
 
continue to stay Short the Dow as per the thread call

(note: despite the rampant confusion on the faces of the 3-min. timeframe gang, i.e. everybody here at ET)

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Guys, you might want to look at yield differentials in my prev. posts here

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168825


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613&highlight=lambda


specifically Moody's corp. bond yield MINUS US T-Bond yield

reminding you that aside from the actual indexes like dow, nas, sp, approaching the game from the vantage point of CREDIT gives you a nonpareil leading indicator ... that called the crash in 2007 as early as July07.

You should have guessed by now that CREDIT is BEAR's weapon of choice and his 2 beneficiaries are $ and Yen. How many times have I been saying this? Since I came to ET in October 2009.
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Yield Differential has registered MY Death Torture Cross (144x200) on June 3, 2010.

When it did so in 2007 we all know what happened to the can't imagine ever failing twosome, BofA and C.

Get ready for sheer verve of vertical rise in this Yield Differential.

In 2007 this Differential took 2.5 months after breakout to put the southbound torpedo on Jones butt. Let's see how much time it takes for it to fire this time.

This equation goes right ot the heart of banks don't want to lend and borrowers don't want to borrow AND gives RISK a whole new meaning.

(my TA thread has all the details of its derivation)
More...

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Here then in pictorial form is exactly what fueled the CRASH of 2007 ................ CREDIT, abuse thereof, RISK breakout = more yield demanded by investors for holding paper relative to T-Bond (30). Dig? It is BEAR's main engine because its also America's weakest trait; americans just gotta have the material stuff NOW even if they got no money to pay for it NOW! Therein dwells the most basic definiton of "aborning criminal behaviour" -

see the breakout in July 2007?

see the moving average DEATH CROSS just a little later?

see the GALACTIC DEATH CROSS on August 15?





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Applying the same concept to the 2010 CRASH ....


From the chart,

warning #1 came in on January 26, 2010

warning #s 2 & 3 on May 5 and 18

Price crossed the 200 sma on May 20 (and here exactly on this date note that Richard Russell called the Dow Theory bearmarket without even being aware of the scenario I depict here :) :) )

DEATH CROSS on June 3, 2010

What we have now at the extreme right of the chart is a correction - when this completes, the trendline northbound breakout as shown by up arrows, will be a 3rd of 3rd wave, BEAR's most powerful thrusting phase.

And look to the extreme left of the chart and see how this differential gave the bull signal Jan 27, 2009, much quicker than Jones and S&P did on March 9, 2009. :) :)




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Quote from deadbroke:

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so far so good as Dow Jones gives me my wave (iv) as shown in chart above. See updated chart below.




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Hey amigos, I haven't updated the chart so that you can see how nicely Dow is going according to my script.

The (iv) down was a 3-legged wave, i.e. a-b-c with "b" being a marginal higher high last week. But you will no doubt note how I correctly placed (iv) off to the right of chart to show that I wasn't sure it was completed yet.

So therefore, today's rally puts us into wave (v) which takes us over the (iii) top.

updated chart follows so you can easily compare and follow along. Like I said, when 5 waves are over, its over.

Therefore we are in a terminal 60-min. wave right now. When it ends, its over. Adios amigo. Hasta la vista, baby. Nos vemos en la proxima vida. Que bueno!! :)
 
here's the updated 60-min. chart. When (v) of 5 ends, its over. this is my sub-call in realtime within the context of my overall daily call.

DAILY chart thread call remains STAY SHORT!

And since dow has just hit the daily 61.8% Fib, I have as promised I would do, ADDED TO SHORT!!!!

The HERD is dumbfounded, but in rapture to see a lion kill himself thusly!!! :D :D




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Quote from deadbroke:

Margin of error:

Margin of error is miniscule in comparison to MY premise that a historic 10-yr duration topping formation is now in its final throes

Current rally target box as shown in chart below is ensconsed between the 50% and 61.8% Fibs of the grid from April - July

the Top is already in as of Tuesday's close

OR Dow goes to 50% fib @ 10,453

OR Dow goes to 61.8% fib @ 10,654

Dow could reach up and kiss the 50% and then charge south for good OR he could head to 61.8% the outer limit of my MARGIN OF ERROR.




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Reminding your Honors that THE MARGIN OF ERROR post was the 3rd post of the thread (page 1) on July 14 - note the mention of the 61.8% Fib at 10,654.

Now we wait. :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

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Reminding your Honors that THE MARGIN OF ERROR post was the 3rd post of the thread (page 1) on July 14 - note the mention of the 61.8% Fib at 10,654.

Now we wait. :)
More...

Sorry about the miss, but it was a good 'ol college try.
 
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