Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

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Quote from gov:

Yes, but even with that last lower low, the trend change is not in place until there is a failure to achieve a higher high. So, the S&P could still see 1170 or so and fail there. Not a prediction, but an acknowledgement. The OP is so obviously green as a trader. The locomotive eventually stops and then reverses, but flinging yourself in front of the train such as this is wrong thinking, not to mention the crazy bravado and muddled thinking.
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LOL :D

Another armchair sissy who can't put out specific numbers and take a stand. ET is full of them. :)

Let's look under the hood of this sissy ..... waste of time but I'll do it once or twice till I get disgusted ...

>>>> until there is a failure to achieve a higher high <<<<

Moron! LOL

there have already been 2 failures, May 12 and June 21 and both times Dow subsequently broke the lows. Both are dow theory interpretations, the first by richard Russell who called the BEAR May 20 and the 2nd by Jack Schannep who called the BEAR July1.

>>>> So, the S&P could still see 1170 or so and fail there. <<<<<

Moron! LOL. It did see 1173 on May 13 and then failed by not taking out the April 26 top and then taking out the May 7 closing low.

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Baron, where do you find these people? :D :D
 
continuing with my response to ET poster, gov

in my own words ....

this is so basic, that its even basic-er than basic. Heck, its not even TA 101, its baby TA.

T R E N D L I N E S .... by their very name, they ought to suggest some linkage with T R E N D. The trendline defines the trend.

Now some might suggest, yeah but what happens when the trendline breaks and knocks you off, and then later the market continues up again?

This is normal

The TREND is adjusting its slope aka Angle of Attack. So you use a downtrendline for the correction (on the same or lower frame) and when that is taken out, you get back LONG and work on a new trendline.

We shall aplly this to the Dow rally from March 2009 to April 26, 2010 top .................
 
Right back at ya DB! I like your stuff too although I pretend to be above it all. Having a point of view and not being wishy washy has a place in this world. If there is one thing I hate in the TA field it's all the "if this happens then that's going to happen but if we break that level (with increasing volume) then the original premise is wrong. We think. And we should of never sent this email update!"

Well one Dr down won't know the results for 2 plus weeks. He did say something right off the bat about my very high arches. Then after all the zapping and prodding and poking he said high arches can lead to peripheral neuropathy. This blew my mind, high arches can numb out your hands too? Apparently. As we are drifting from the serious diseases I'm oh so eager to take it this direction. One funny moment came when the Dr said the one blood test they didn't do which I wish they had is for Syphilis. There was a moment of silence and then I said " Doc I've been married for something like 20 years and I rarely have sex. " The doc was up until that point very droll and not friendly. He snickered knowingly and said " You didn't have to say that last part."

Anyway as you can tell from DB's smiley face above-- the market looks like crap today with a 100 point reversal which is in keeping for the set up for a huge up explosion over a good jobs number. Will we get that number? I'll admit I'm starting to waver I do remember a jobless recovery in the Bush years but the market motored on undaunted. There is just something different this time. It's the loss of faith in paper assets and how does that ever get fixed? Certainly heading into a Japanese like state of deflation would put the nail in that coffin.

A screen i did today which is kind of fun is taking my perspective new buys and seeing where they stand within their Bollinger bands. In general to find a clean breakout with room to go on the up Bollinger is hard to find-- CTFO would be the one. Most stocks that are doing well are hugging that upline with quite a bit to fall to touch the lower.That indicates to me a market going nowhere fast or dangerously close to fair value at these ridiculous levels. As with most TA you can see what you want to see with Bollingers but another application for me is a stock that habitually huggs it's lower band and suddenly hugs the upper-- for me this is different that a stock that goes up and down kissing both-- this shows a real change in direction. that stock would be GAME.

So today I will place my last bets for the next 3 weeks and those bets will be CTFO-- in case you don't remember these guys do traffic control in China. And GAME of course is another play on the Chinese market-- with the added kicker of selling to Apple over the 2nd half.

2 other stocks that grade out well a bio play AVNR that is an interesting Co and due some FDA news shortly and for all the hooplah about a break out OVTI is still very buyable @ $22.00 zone.

Time for a big disgusting sandwich lathered in mayo because according to my blood work I can. Sorry MOM! And I'll buy some Dr Scholls type thingy inserts just to test as I await the nerve results. It would be beyond amazing if that simple step cures this tingling. All I've been doing is laying in bed and fearing cancer and whatever else pops up in the old brain. I can actually say I deserve a vacation this year.~stoney
 
continuing ... TRENDLINE defines trend.


draw a tendline up from the March 2009 low thru' July 8 low. That would cause an early Long exit in early or late October 2009. Healthy profit though.

Then you sit and watch with your thumb up your ass while the market drops, then recovers and goes higher. So you enter LONG again. Then as if by sheer magic you get your 2nd trendline point on the decline ending Feb 5, 2010.

Easy. Just connect the 2 points, March 2009 and Feb 2010. Extend the line and when it breaks, Exit = TP on May 5, 2010.

One more trendline option ... Just connect July 8, 2009 and Feb 5, 2010 and extend the trendline. Exit = TP on May 7, 2010

either trendline gives you your exit from the UPTREND!!!!

The UPTREND by virtue of the simplest definition is OVER, esp. considering that the latter, shallower uptrendline is so shallow that if the uptrend cannot even handle that climb, its a dying trend!!!

Bonus:

Notice that nowhere during the entire rise from March 2009 was a significant LOW ever taken out until the Feb 2010 low was breached on June 7.

My proprietary exit was april 27, 2010. See earlier in thread.

It all boils down to probabilities. Only the HERD is always certain and cocksure. We, the lions are always plagued by doubts. But you act when the probs are in your favor. That's the best anyone can ever do. Certainty never comes, waiting for it is a waste of time.

You guys are the dumbest bounty hunters in existence. Its as if a broad rubs her pussy on your face, but you still need a 2nd opinion whether sh's fuckable right there and then. God help you!!!! :D:D

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Baron, where do you find these people? :D :D
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Right back at ya DB! I like your stuff too although I pretend to be above it all. Having a point of view and not being wishy washy has a place in this world. If there is one thing I hate in the TA field it's all the "if this happens then that's going to happen but if we break that level (with increasing volume) then the original premise is wrong. We think. And we should of never sent this email update!"

Well one Dr down won't know the results for 2 plus weeks. He did say something right off the bat about my very high arches. Then after all the zapping and prodding and poking he said high arches can lead to peripheral neuropathy. This blew my mind, high arches can numb out your hands too? Apparently. As we are drifting from the serious diseases I'm oh so eager to take it this direction. One funny moment came when the Dr said the one blood test they didn't do which I wish they had is for Syphilis. There was a moment of silence and then I said " Doc I've been married for something like 20 years and I rarely have sex. " The doc was up until that point very droll and not friendly. He snickered knowingly and said " You didn't have to say that last part."

Anyway as you can tell from DB's smiley face above-- the market looks like crap today with a 100 point reversal which is in keeping for the set up for a huge up explosion over a good jobs number. Will we get that number? I'll admit I'm starting to waver I do remember a jobless recovery in the Bush years but the market motored on undaunted. There is just something different this time. It's the loss of faith in paper assets and how does that ever get fixed? Certainly heading into a Japanese like state of deflation would put the nail in that coffin.

A screen i did today which is kind of fun is taking my perspective new buys and seeing where they stand within their Bollinger bands. In general to find a clean breakout with room to go on the up Bollinger is hard to find-- CTFO would be the one. Most stocks that are doing well are hugging that upline with quite a bit to fall to touch the lower.That indicates to me a market going nowhere fast or dangerously close to fair value at these ridiculous levels. As with most TA you can see what you want to see with Bollingers but another application for me is a stock that habitually huggs it's lower band and suddenly hugs the upper-- for me this is different that a stock that goes up and down kissing both-- this shows a real change in direction. that stock would be GAME.

So today I will place my last bets for the next 3 weeks and those bets will be CTFO-- in case you don't remember these guys do traffic control in China. And GAME of course is another play on the Chinese market-- with the added kicker of selling to Apple over the 2nd half.

2 other stocks that grade out well a bio play AVNR that is an interesting Co and due some FDA news shortly and for all the hooplah about a break out OVTI is still very buyable @ $22.00 zone.

Time for a big disgusting sandwich lathered in mayo because according to my blood work I can. Sorry MOM! And I'll buy some Dr Scholls type thingy inserts just to test as I await the nerve results. It would be beyond amazing if that simple step cures this tingling. All I've been doing is laying in bed and fearing cancer and whatever else pops up in the old brain. I can actually say I deserve a vacation this year.~stoney
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Stoney, I'm reading your stuff, it might take a while to get the depth of your approach, but please, just pour on the coal. We can all learn something. :)
 
Speaking generally ....

the best we can do is try to understand and then take a swing. Being wrong is never a problem for any of us, its an occupational hazard. Heck, humiliation in the markets is a given. But to NOT take a stand with specific numbers and then pull someone's cock from the safety of mama's caca bum is downright cowardice.
 
Quote from MarketMasher:

I just looked in this thread so not sure if I got the full picture - you are risking 900+ pts from your initial short to the stop and scaling-in with more as it rises. Is that with DIA or futures?
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Original first SHORT is from April 27 daily chart close.
 
DEATH CROSSES have occurred on the following .... in addition to the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq. Notable exception is the Dow Transports.

Philadelphia Housing Sector (July 6)

S&P Homebuilder ETF: XHB (today)

S&P financials ETF: XLF (June 18)

US financial sector ETF:IYF (June 30)

Vix (May 19) ++++ Galactic Death Cross ( July 21)

As of yesterday's close, Vix is now above the 200-day, its Macd is curling up from below zero, but most significant is that the 144 is crossing 200 topside for the first time since June 2009.

The whole scene put together looks like this ...

The HERD is at the Mara. they want to cross = go LONG.

The crocs are all there, underwater, silently and not moving much, just waiting for the HERD to jump in. And for the HERD members that do make it across, there are lions waiting.

What a life. Fck being a vegetarian. :)
 
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