Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

Status
Not open for further replies.
Here's my short-term (60-min.) interpretation of the rally ....

When 5 waves are up, its over. This short-term analysis in no way takes any importance in the face of the DAILY chart CALL, which is the sole arbiter.

The DAILY is clear on these things: My proprietary method called for resumption of BEAR on April 27, 2010. The venerable Dow Theory technique also calls for a BEARmarket on either May 20 or June 29. The DEATH CROSS for Dow, Nas & S&P have all occurred.

Next DAILY leg down is the 3rd wave. What to look forward to? Revolution and Secession. For the record, I'm sticking with the most talented suzerain, California. :) :D :D




Uploaded with ImageShack.us
 
I just looked in this thread so not sure if I got the full picture - you are risking 900+ pts from your initial short to the stop and scaling-in with more as it rises. Is that with DIA or futures?
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

Good luck deadbroke/thorn/Rubberbird/Rowshan, etc! Yer gonna need it!
More...

wow nice insight,
I didn't know it was rubberbird, i use to see his calls when i started to learn trading, thought it was quite interesting,
but now I have more experience , Your calls are ok, but it needs improvement.

let me tell you what you are doing wrong,

a) you can't focus on fibs or an exact point, like 1100 ,things are very random in reality , so you must flow with the market movement. things may not look random after the fact, but its always random during when it happens.
And after it happens, while it may have been very random while you were trading, it doesn't matter, the market happened, you may have been stopped out or not, or made money ,it doesn't matter.

b) what matters is if you flowed with the markets and didn't fixate on 1 point or 1 fib.

c) As the market is flowing into one pattern into another (randomness), you must picture the next pattern its flowing to, you must picture the next flow in your head like playing chess.

d) To be able to picture the next pattern flow, you must have a dataset of patterns already in your head. (aka seen it before )




:) cool shit though rubberbird
 
Quote from deadbroke:

--------------------------------------

Sorry, due to a previous tying error in the overall STOP for the entire position, that error in the quote is corrected from 10,310 to 11,310. So repeating prev. post ...

>>>> add to Short if Dow makes it to 10,453 <<<<

Done! Short has been added to.

Dow Jones Short of the decade continues unabated and unabashed!
More...

Wasn't the Margin of Error in your 1st chart 10554? Now it's 11310? If you keep moving it (now 932 pt stop) sooner or later you're going to be right.

May as well make the stop point 15000. It's bound to drop before then! :D
 
OK, we may have the start of a downleg here ...

India has lower highs. The DAX has a double top. The Hang Seng seems to be peaking. The Nikkei has a lower high.
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Re: Dow Theory post several posts back

Now all 3 famous Dow Theorists are in agreement that a bearmarket signal is in effect.

Note that my signal was april 27, far quicker than these slowpokes. :) But hey, Dow Theory is a stellar methodology.

http://totalinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/07/dow-theory-sell-signal.html:)
More...

-------------------------

BEAR fires a curveball that knocks Dow Theory's oldest and wisest practitioner to his knees in confusion ... i.e. Richard Russell now says that Monday's action has generated a Dow Theory BUY signal.

But the remaining 2 Dow Theorists are steadfast in their early July bearmarket call.

As for me, Dow Jones SHORT continues unabated & unabashed

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/possible-dow-theory-buy-signal-at-mondays-close-2010-07-26
 
Ed Sekota and Trend surfers including the Turtles AND prof. of Finance, the author/editor of the TA bible have all said that a trend rider only captures the middle portion of a trend because they lose the first third and the last third.

But they all seem satisfied with this as it has been proven to be better than anyone else's results.

Ed Sekotas' famous line, "the trend is your friend until it bends" has always had a great impact on me as I was learning about TREND.

But now I'm on my own and have to rely on my own steam to find a better way than the dopey 2/3 trend loss that trend riders have accepted as inevitable.

What trend surfers look for is the series of lower highs lower lows (in an uptrend) to exit.

What I'm looking for is THE TREND TRANSITION = way before the BEND

If I can catch that, I could in theory capture more than 95% of the aborning trend AND simultaneously take profit on the previous dying TREND.

The current Dow Jones scenario gives me just such an opportunity to try my stuff. My exit call was April 27, just one day from the top. Now if I can ride the whole trend down and call the BEAR end within 1-3 days, that would be something.

That's what I'm after. Sheer poetry to me. :)

Of course for all this to work my original thread CALL must be correct in that April 26 is the TOP. :)
 
The 3-4 rally days in the Dow have no doubt sent the ET collective = HERD into rapture, so this is as good a time as any to revisit MacLean's and Bobby's work ... .:) :D

-------------

If a financial market is soaring or crashing, the limbic system senses an opportunity or a threat and orders you to join the HERD so that your chances for success or survival will improve. The limbic system produces emotions that support those impulses, including hope, euphoria, cautiousness and panic.

The emotions thus impelled lead one inevitably to the opposite of survival and success, which is why the vast majority of people lose when they speculate. In a great number of situations, hoping and herding can contribute to your well-being. NOT in financial markets.

Paradoxically, then, its not a confirmation of your correct posture when you look around and can comfortably say, "Everybody out there agrees with me." It is a warning. As John spooner said, "If you sit in on a poker game and you don't see a sucker at the table, get up, because you're the sucker"

The important point with respect to this aspect of financial markets is that repeated failure usually does little to deter behaviour

If repeated loss and agony cannot overcome the limbic system's impulses, then it certainly must have free rein in comparitively benign social settings
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top