Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
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Yield Differential has registered MY Death Torture Cross (144x200) on June 3, 2010.
When it did so in 2007 we all know what happened to the can't imagine ever failing twosome, BofA and C.
Get ready for sheer verve of vertical rise in this Yield Differential.
In 2007 this Differential took 2.5 months after breakout to put the southbound torpedo on Jones butt. Let's see how much time it takes for it to fire this time.
This equation goes right ot the heart of banks don't want to lend and borrowers don't want to borrow AND gives RISK a whole new meaning.
(my TA thread has all the details of its derivation)
When it did so in 2007 we all know what happened to the can't imagine ever failing twosome, BofA and C.
Get ready for sheer verve of vertical rise in this Yield Differential.
In 2007 this Differential took 2.5 months after breakout to put the southbound torpedo on Jones butt. Let's see how much time it takes for it to fire this time.
This equation goes right ot the heart of banks don't want to lend and borrowers don't want to borrow AND gives RISK a whole new meaning.
(my TA thread has all the details of its derivation)
The Dow Jones SHORT continues unabated and unabashed
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If this short of the decade call works out nicely, it will be a twofer, not just for me, but for anyone who is interested in studying and mastering HERD mentality. The skill involved in going it alone, totally alone, without the feel-good stuff of the crowd, is worth so much that it can't be priced even in gold.
ET is a HERD. I can and will prove it. And the proof will be right here in this thread. What's more, it will be so obvious as to dispense with the liability of argument.
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If this short of the decade call works out nicely, it will be a twofer, not just for me, but for anyone who is interested in studying and mastering HERD mentality. The skill involved in going it alone, totally alone, without the feel-good stuff of the crowd, is worth so much that it can't be priced even in gold.
ET is a HERD. I can and will prove it. And the proof will be right here in this thread. What's more, it will be so obvious as to dispense with the liability of argument.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
A family favorite:
Blueberry Scones with Lemon Glaze
Serves: 8 scones
Ingredients
2 cups all-purpose flour
1 tablespoon baking powder
1/2 teaspoon salt
2 tablespoons sugar
5 tablespoons unsalted butter, cold, cut in chunks
1 cup heavy cream, plus more for brushing the scones
1 cup fresh blueberries
Lemon Glaze:
1/2 cup freshly squeezed lemon juice
2 cups confectioners' sugar, sifted
1 lemon, zest finely grated
1 tablespoon unsalted butter
Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F.
Sift together the dry ingredients; the flour, baking powder, salt, and sugar. Using 2 forks or a pastry blender, cut in the butter to coat the pieces with the flour. The mixture should look like coarse crumbs. Make a well in the center and pour in the heavy cream. Fold everything together just to incorporate; do not overwork the dough. Fold the blueberries into the batter. Take care not to mash or bruise the blueberries because their strong color will bleed into the dough.
Press the dough out on a lightly floured surface into a rectangle about 12 by 3 by 1 1/4 inches. Cut the rectangle in 1/2 then cut the pieces in 1/2 again, giving you 4 (3-inch) squares. Cut the squares in 1/2 on a diagonal to give you the classic triangle shape. Place the scones on an ungreased cookie sheet and brush the tops with a little heavy cream. Bake for 15 to 20 minutes until beautiful and brown. Let the scones cool a bit before you apply the glaze.
Technically you should make this simple lemon glaze in a double boiler (i.e. over a pot of simmering water with a heatproof bowl set on top) but it's even simpler to zap it in the microwave. Mix the lemon juice and confectioners' sugar together in a microwave-safe bowl. Stir until the sugar dissolves. Add the lemon zest and butter. Nuke it for 30 seconds on high. Whisk the glaze to smooth out any lumps, then drizzle the glaze over the top of the scones. Let it set a minute before serving.
Blueberry Scones with Lemon Glaze
Serves: 8 scones
Ingredients
2 cups all-purpose flour
1 tablespoon baking powder
1/2 teaspoon salt
2 tablespoons sugar
5 tablespoons unsalted butter, cold, cut in chunks
1 cup heavy cream, plus more for brushing the scones
1 cup fresh blueberries
Lemon Glaze:
1/2 cup freshly squeezed lemon juice
2 cups confectioners' sugar, sifted
1 lemon, zest finely grated
1 tablespoon unsalted butter
Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F.
Sift together the dry ingredients; the flour, baking powder, salt, and sugar. Using 2 forks or a pastry blender, cut in the butter to coat the pieces with the flour. The mixture should look like coarse crumbs. Make a well in the center and pour in the heavy cream. Fold everything together just to incorporate; do not overwork the dough. Fold the blueberries into the batter. Take care not to mash or bruise the blueberries because their strong color will bleed into the dough.
Press the dough out on a lightly floured surface into a rectangle about 12 by 3 by 1 1/4 inches. Cut the rectangle in 1/2 then cut the pieces in 1/2 again, giving you 4 (3-inch) squares. Cut the squares in 1/2 on a diagonal to give you the classic triangle shape. Place the scones on an ungreased cookie sheet and brush the tops with a little heavy cream. Bake for 15 to 20 minutes until beautiful and brown. Let the scones cool a bit before you apply the glaze.
Technically you should make this simple lemon glaze in a double boiler (i.e. over a pot of simmering water with a heatproof bowl set on top) but it's even simpler to zap it in the microwave. Mix the lemon juice and confectioners' sugar together in a microwave-safe bowl. Stir until the sugar dissolves. Add the lemon zest and butter. Nuke it for 30 seconds on high. Whisk the glaze to smooth out any lumps, then drizzle the glaze over the top of the scones. Let it set a minute before serving.
Quote from deadbroke:
current Dow Jones SHORT trade continues unabated
April 15 post:
reiterating TOP is imminent Now or @ 11,182 or 11,294 (=61.8%)
Jones @ 200-wk m.a. = stiff resistance
LTm.a. X 200 m.a. @ 1" to the left suggests cascading waterfall decline.
April 21 post, just a few days before the top
Continue to stay LONG
if/when close < 10,990, close Long & go Short.
+++ Short with close < 10,835 as in above post.
Then the thread was closed on April 21 at my request, so could not update and narrow down the exit, but still on the Daily chart basis, the 10,990 stop mentioned above was taken out April 27, just one day after the top.
So exit was April 27 and Short was called on reverse in advance as above.
Not bad for a newbie with just 3 pairs of T-shirts and 4 jeans.
I don't play the short side but when I do like sassy brews like you. I read through all of this and really honed in on one line only... the rest of course has been done dozens of times before...
" I still have my chillum from Anjuna. I'll smoke some. "
This got my attention. Have I finally met a jr stonedinvestor? You're line about the 3 jeans is also reminiscent of early me when I always crowed about beating the stiff suites in my underwear at home. Where you went astray and gave yourself away is " the thread was closed then at my own request " that is beyond the pale men or boys of such egos never ever close a thread like that. They sign off in a bigger way... like " put THAT one in the book Byron! " which is my favorite.
Carter Worth did this whole routine several times for me and each time the DOW rallied very hard. In the time frame that you have been out of the market I have made money like crazy so the trades are there. It's only this week that I have a more dour take on things.
Ten years ago roughly the DOW hit 10,000 now TEN years later you have realized that we are at 10,000. Of course that was a top. You have taken your short position actually a tiny bit over the range at 10,900. But for 900 Dow points you have missed 3 pretty good months of trading.
A lot of TA folks I know in fact all the one's I know are calling for the end of the world after last Friday so you are in the majority there. My instinct (I am by nature contrarian) is to buy Monster World Wide and go long the market just before the next jobs report which might be this Friday. ~stoney

Quote from deadbroke:
caution for nano shorties:
Dow Jones 60-min. is almost kissin the Fib 38.2% retracement of July 2 - July 13 grid. This is generally a strong support. You geniusses know what that means, right?
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Slamdunk!
And I wasn't anywhere near a computer or TV and neither did I watch any futures action.
Instead I did what Confucius say, "Man who puts hand in bush is not always a gardener!!! and "Dumb man climb tree to get cherry, wise man spread limbs"My Daily chart Dow Jones SHORT call continues unabated and unabashed.
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Don't lose money, nano players, instead get the dope on 60-min. - anal-ysis follows next.
note: This or any future short-term anal-ysis is totally separate from my daily chart call and regardless its efficacy, in no way impedes or diminishes my overall CALL. I'm a total retard in realtime trading, so this is good practise for me and a chance to let the HERD fck me real good when I'm wrong. Insults and attacks are all part of a newbie's education, right? You guys taught me at least this and I learned it well!!!
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shown in Dow 60-min. is my thought-ing. Is the rally July 2-13 over? In the chart I've placed a 3 or 5 at the High to indicate that PRICE's upmove might not be complete as I can only count 3 waves up, i.e. 1-2-3 with the current drop being "4"
PRICE's form is very important, i.e. the look and feel of the internal structure - and this down move still fits in as an internal wave 4. If so, PRICE will challenge July 13 high and likely exceed it to go to my already provided and anticipated 50% or 61.8% daily chart targets (see first few posts of thread)
On the other hand, if PRICE drops further and the down move starts to look real lopsided compared to waves 1-2, then the probability of this drop being a 4 becomes increasingly evanescent and I will put a "5" = completed at the July 13 top.
So these 2 event possibilities are in my "doubt" column.
But overall on Daily, just stay SHOOOOOORT!!!!!!!
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shown in Dow 60-min. is my thought-ing. Is the rally July 2-13 over? In the chart I've placed a 3 or 5 at the High to indicate that PRICE's upmove might not be complete as I can only count 3 waves up, i.e. 1-2-3 with the current drop being "4"
PRICE's form is very important, i.e. the look and feel of the internal structure - and this down move still fits in as an internal wave 4. If so, PRICE will challenge July 13 high and likely exceed it to go to my already provided and anticipated 50% or 61.8% daily chart targets (see first few posts of thread)
On the other hand, if PRICE drops further and the down move starts to look real lopsided compared to waves 1-2, then the probability of this drop being a 4 becomes increasingly evanescent and I will put a "5" = completed at the July 13 top.
So these 2 event possibilities are in my "doubt" column.
But overall on Daily, just stay SHOOOOOORT!!!!!!!
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SENTIMENT analysis aka the HERD's temperature is a very important part of my Daily chart Dow Jones Short call. This type of analysis however, is only "corroborative", PRICE being the sole, ultimate arbiter.
Some basics about the HERD's herding instinct and the enormous force on the lion aka lone warrior who shuns the HERD collective ..... (these extracts are from Bobby's work, albeit modified by me, which later formed the basis for my own work on the subject)
The discomfort of being alone in one's convictions and of just thinking of taking action apart from the HERD is so great that it alone can trigger autonomic activity such as sweating, twitching, muscle tightening, hair standing on end, flushing and deep fear and nausea.
The lion knows from experience that anyone who shares a prevailing majority of opinion on any subject, particularly one that is intensely attended by emotions of the limbic system (such as politics, religion, wealth, sex) is treated with the repect due his obvious intelligence and morality (these are HERD standards burned into the brain) .
One who utters an opposing opinion is immediately punished by a chorus of depecating smiles, cackles, mooing, snorting, nipping, farting, or outright hostility. It may sound funny, but if one is not used to verbal viciousness or rejection by the group, they are painful experiences, and most people cannot abide either.
This is why, in financial markets, when the best time to buy or sell is at hand, even the person who thinks he should take action experiences a strong psychological pressure to refrain from doing so. He thinks, if only half consciously, "when my neighbor or friend or advisor thinks its a good idea, then I'll do it too. If I do it now, and I'm wrong, they will all call me a dope, and I'll be the only dope. I'll be singled out for ridicule, which is not only agonizing but dangerous"
Therefore pressure from, and influence by, peers, then, is at least one reason why most people cannot bring themselves to change from a bullish to bearish orientation or vice versa if to do so would go against the ideas of their associates and contacts. It also explains why a market or other social trend can continue for a long time and why financial valuations can become so extreme as to appear outrageous to those who believe that people ought to base their decisions upon some calculable fundamental value.
Some basics about the HERD's herding instinct and the enormous force on the lion aka lone warrior who shuns the HERD collective ..... (these extracts are from Bobby's work, albeit modified by me, which later formed the basis for my own work on the subject)
The discomfort of being alone in one's convictions and of just thinking of taking action apart from the HERD is so great that it alone can trigger autonomic activity such as sweating, twitching, muscle tightening, hair standing on end, flushing and deep fear and nausea.
The lion knows from experience that anyone who shares a prevailing majority of opinion on any subject, particularly one that is intensely attended by emotions of the limbic system (such as politics, religion, wealth, sex) is treated with the repect due his obvious intelligence and morality (these are HERD standards burned into the brain) .
One who utters an opposing opinion is immediately punished by a chorus of depecating smiles, cackles, mooing, snorting, nipping, farting, or outright hostility. It may sound funny, but if one is not used to verbal viciousness or rejection by the group, they are painful experiences, and most people cannot abide either.
This is why, in financial markets, when the best time to buy or sell is at hand, even the person who thinks he should take action experiences a strong psychological pressure to refrain from doing so. He thinks, if only half consciously, "when my neighbor or friend or advisor thinks its a good idea, then I'll do it too. If I do it now, and I'm wrong, they will all call me a dope, and I'll be the only dope. I'll be singled out for ridicule, which is not only agonizing but dangerous"
Therefore pressure from, and influence by, peers, then, is at least one reason why most people cannot bring themselves to change from a bullish to bearish orientation or vice versa if to do so would go against the ideas of their associates and contacts. It also explains why a market or other social trend can continue for a long time and why financial valuations can become so extreme as to appear outrageous to those who believe that people ought to base their decisions upon some calculable fundamental value.
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