Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
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It just never pays to be in the MAJORITY. To be making the same call as every TA site is will lead to nothing but confusion. What you have to know is the market is a living breathing entity, it is a stubborn child who will do the opposite of what you think. Anytime a firm consensus is reached you as an individual investor must have the inner fortitude to go your own way. Right now there is firm " collective agreement " that stocks are dead. Furthermore since various moving averages have been broken, there is collective agreement that we are heading lower.
This is when one must step out of the group think bubble and walk on his own.
What will happen when the oil well is killed? Is it a coincidence that the current malaise of the market started the day after the rig imploded? Can a collective dark mood of thought sweep a nation especially a 10% jobless nation? Yes, that is what is happening now. To the already depressed market participants comes panting the Fibb crowd. Look it will get worse!
A lot is resting on the European stress tests of banks. Part of me is worried they will not do a good job over there and detectives will spot flaws in their reasoning. If they can pull off a good accounting of the banks, we should see stability in Europe. After the US stress tested things began to get better, still it took the Government's guarantee that the biggest banks were too big to fail-- the very premise that new regulations is trying to kill-- that unlocked our lending (to some degree) and our markets. It's easy to forget folks were splitting up their savings up into $200,000 increments and using several savings banks for the FDIC insurance-- that's how scary it was here.
What I see is a slow build up of pressure on our biggest companies to do something constructive with their hoarding of cash. People are out of work and yet these companies are not using their cash to hire. There is a very real danger that the administration will lean hard on these companies and force some hiring-- that could lead to some messiness if there is no end demand. A better idea would be for a big tech co like Apple to institute a 4% dividend. This would start a cascade of dividend initiations and change the way we use the market. Generally prices would flatten out and folks would use the dividends as income and hope for appreciation on the best names. This would allow rates on bonds to stay low for an even longer extended time and bring into play a secret plan which is being circulated in Government circles. If the Fed can keep rates low for 5 years we will grow out of this deficit and magically when Obama comes up for reelection the fiscal numbers will look real good.
So five more years of DOW 10,000 area, can you handle it? I'm not sure I can.
It would be constructive to go back through history and spot the longest time spent at a static number, I believe DOW 1,000 was a long slog. Lets examine each instance of seven years or more spent at a round number and then see how many times after such a long mind F*ck, the market has then gone lower. ~stoney
This is when one must step out of the group think bubble and walk on his own.
What will happen when the oil well is killed? Is it a coincidence that the current malaise of the market started the day after the rig imploded? Can a collective dark mood of thought sweep a nation especially a 10% jobless nation? Yes, that is what is happening now. To the already depressed market participants comes panting the Fibb crowd. Look it will get worse!
A lot is resting on the European stress tests of banks. Part of me is worried they will not do a good job over there and detectives will spot flaws in their reasoning. If they can pull off a good accounting of the banks, we should see stability in Europe. After the US stress tested things began to get better, still it took the Government's guarantee that the biggest banks were too big to fail-- the very premise that new regulations is trying to kill-- that unlocked our lending (to some degree) and our markets. It's easy to forget folks were splitting up their savings up into $200,000 increments and using several savings banks for the FDIC insurance-- that's how scary it was here.
What I see is a slow build up of pressure on our biggest companies to do something constructive with their hoarding of cash. People are out of work and yet these companies are not using their cash to hire. There is a very real danger that the administration will lean hard on these companies and force some hiring-- that could lead to some messiness if there is no end demand. A better idea would be for a big tech co like Apple to institute a 4% dividend. This would start a cascade of dividend initiations and change the way we use the market. Generally prices would flatten out and folks would use the dividends as income and hope for appreciation on the best names. This would allow rates on bonds to stay low for an even longer extended time and bring into play a secret plan which is being circulated in Government circles. If the Fed can keep rates low for 5 years we will grow out of this deficit and magically when Obama comes up for reelection the fiscal numbers will look real good.
So five more years of DOW 10,000 area, can you handle it? I'm not sure I can.
It would be constructive to go back through history and spot the longest time spent at a static number, I believe DOW 1,000 was a long slog. Lets examine each instance of seven years or more spent at a round number and then see how many times after such a long mind F*ck, the market has then gone lower. ~stoney
What a great day yesterday!
Did you buy IRONWOOD like I told you? Whoops up 8%.
LF- up 5%
GMO- up 6%
VALE- up 6%
LLEN- UP 6.8% (sold one lot for taxes)
>>>>>>>
Lets talk today. Yesterday I charted two names that I feel both have $10 UPSIDE in a very short time period. the names are DOMTAR UFS& Cliffs Resources CLF. By layering over 50 day and 100 day and 200 day you get a clear picture of resistance and support. What was support became resistance. Clearly both names have $10 to run and STILL be in that downtrend that every stock seems to be in.
MONSTER WW- $12.08-$12.50>>> Watching. Monster's chart is not as giving as the other two, still with a big surprise looming at the next payroll report this is a name we must follow.
CTFO looks great IOC looks strong.~stoney
Did you buy IRONWOOD like I told you? Whoops up 8%.
LF- up 5%
GMO- up 6%
VALE- up 6%
LLEN- UP 6.8% (sold one lot for taxes)
>>>>>>>
Lets talk today. Yesterday I charted two names that I feel both have $10 UPSIDE in a very short time period. the names are DOMTAR UFS& Cliffs Resources CLF. By layering over 50 day and 100 day and 200 day you get a clear picture of resistance and support. What was support became resistance. Clearly both names have $10 to run and STILL be in that downtrend that every stock seems to be in.
MONSTER WW- $12.08-$12.50>>> Watching. Monster's chart is not as giving as the other two, still with a big surprise looming at the next payroll report this is a name we must follow.
CTFO looks great IOC looks strong.~stoney
Ok boys and gals-- take a position in Domtar UFS. I just did @ $50.50 there are several reasons to buy this name and several reasons not to.
cash flow is a darn good reason to buy as is the rumor that they will beat earnings.
on the neg side pulp prices, cycles and fear of a double dip all loom.
back on the pos tip- debt being worked down and possibly the company to be sold...
It's enough for me. taking the $2 gain in Westport WPRT and rotating into paper play UFS.
Well that's it for me. There are several baby raccoons that I have kind of adopted in Ct and their mama they all need feeding and the corn & tomatoes need water. It's hot as blazes. The Blue Jays are pissed they want their peanuts and I left that trap for the big Muscrat.
I'll check in next week before my two week vacation.
Yours In Stocks,
~stoney
cash flow is a darn good reason to buy as is the rumor that they will beat earnings.
on the neg side pulp prices, cycles and fear of a double dip all loom.
back on the pos tip- debt being worked down and possibly the company to be sold...
It's enough for me. taking the $2 gain in Westport WPRT and rotating into paper play UFS.
Well that's it for me. There are several baby raccoons that I have kind of adopted in Ct and their mama they all need feeding and the corn & tomatoes need water. It's hot as blazes. The Blue Jays are pissed they want their peanuts and I left that trap for the big Muscrat.
I'll check in next week before my two week vacation.
Yours In Stocks,
~stoney
Hey guys, I just got home, I'm skunker than a drunk but Mark Haines said the market is opening in a few and I see futures are high, so I'll get this off now, but follow up later when sober ....
regardless how optimistic and ecstatic people get, even in this drunken state, the admonition is ...
Daily Dow Jones Short continues unabated and unabashed.
Market's already opened with a huge upside bar.
regardless how optimistic and ecstatic people get, even in this drunken state, the admonition is ...
Daily Dow Jones Short continues unabated and unabashed.
Market's already opened with a huge upside bar.
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