DOW to fall below 11k

1flyfisher · Jul 29, 2008

My Analysis:

Lilduckling is one of tens/hundreds/thousands that craves attention and accolades by posting on a securities internet message board.

Just another guesser striving for attention.

lilduckling · Jul 29, 2008

Quote from 1flyfisher:

My Analysis:

Lilduckling is one of tens/hundreds/thousands that craves attention and accolades by posting on a securities internet message board.

Just another guesser striving for attention.

Well its true i do post of various threads, but as far as making calls to get attention as you say, I only make calls like this about once in every 6 months....... hardly an attention hog.

infact you average alot more posts per day than i do.

Oh of course, YOUR posts are more important .

traderyin · Jul 30, 2008

The Dow has to drop 500+ pts from now for your call to be correct.

I personally would love to see it since I have short positions open.

But very unlikely.

staffpro · Jul 30, 2008

i have traveled over europe spain/france/germany/poland over the last two weeks and each day i'm here i am more and more convinced that our crisis back at home is as a previous thread had mentioned a "confidence crisis" markets are simply over reacting to everything that is all. PEOPLE HERE PAY OVER 7-8$ per gallon and they certainly don't make more money than us, i rented a car the other day for a few days and a full tank of gas (for a small car) cost me $125 lol... crazy food and everything as well, heck the rental car was way more expensive than we have in america, this is not my first time in europe i am here practically every year but the way things have changed we really have it good in america and i am happy to live there, this will all settle down soon as more and more people realize this.

the euro as someone has mentioned has imo reached it's top and the usd will regain it's value maybe not all of it but we can't have e v e r y thing go our way lol...

S2007S · Jul 30, 2008

Quote from traderyin:

The Dow has to drop 500+ pts from now for your call to be correct.

I personally would love to see it since I have short positions open.

But very unlikely.

The DOW can easily drop 1000 in one day, they just announced they are keeping the discount window open until the end of Jan, they are extremely worried about this crisis and will do anything it takes to keep it from falling apart even further, Sell these bear rallies.

traderyin · Jul 30, 2008

Quote from staffpro:

i have traveled over europe spain/france/germany/poland over the last two weeks and each day i'm here i am more and more convinced that our crisis back at home is as a previous thread had mentioned a "confidence crisis" markets are simply over reacting to everything that is all. PEOPLE HERE PAY OVER 7-8$ per gallon and they certainly don't make more money than us, i rented a car the other day for a few days and a full tank of gas (for a small car) cost me $125 lol... crazy food and everything as well, heck the rental car was way more expensive than we have in america, this is not my first time in europe i am here practically every year but the way things have changed we really have it good in america and i am happy to live there, this will all settle down soon as more and more people realize this.

the euro as someone has mentioned has imo reached it's top and the usd will regain it's value maybe not all of it but we can't have e v e r y thing go our way lol...

Maybe they are used to those type of gas prices? or the usage relative to their income is not as big as your typical American? How about the fact that you are looking at it in USD term. "$125 a tank...wow that's alot" that's because the USD is weak and you are not used to paying so much for gas.

staffpro · Jul 30, 2008

Quote from traderyin:

Maybe they are used to those type of gas prices? or the usage relative to their income is not as big as your typical American? How about the fact that you are looking at it in USD term. "$125 a tank...wow that's alot" that's because the USD is weak and you are not used to paying so much for gas.

gas here was 5-6$/gallon a year ago alot of friends family are aware of this and refer to inflaton using very vulgar terms lol and it's not only gas it's everything, in america everything has gone up in price as well but not as drasticlaly as over here was what i was trying to say.

traderyin · Jul 30, 2008

Quote from S2007S:

The DOW can easily drop 1000 in one day, they just announced they are keeping the discount window open until the end of Jan, they are extremely worried about this crisis and will do anything it takes to keep it from falling apart even further, Sell these bear rallies.

Easily? When was the last time the Index shred 8-9% in one day?

S2007S · Jul 30, 2008

Quote from traderyin:

Easily? When was the last time the Index shred 8-9% in one day?

April 14th 2000 5-6% loss in one day.

March 2001 Dow drops below 10,000

September 2001 Dow drops to 8200

July 2002 Enron/Worldcom news, Dow drops to 7700.

Dow will be headed below 11k again, I think something under 10k is quite possible as well.

Mvic · Jul 30, 2008

I am long here ES 1265 and NQ 1829 in size (4X relative to what I have been doing the last few months)

There is just too much support for the markets coming online in the next month for them to fall in any meaningful way so am abandoning my 10700 call and realize that 10800 s was good enough and should have gone long then.

Target 1300 and 1920

I am long USO calls as I see a fast rise in oil back to its highs as the only thing likely to sink equities.