"Dow To Decline -80% In 2016"

rmorse said:
So what trades have you put in place to profit from that?
More...

I haven't made a big play on that yet. The markets haven't done enough chart damage to make me give the benefit-of-the-doubt to the bearish case.... that would take a close and hold below the lows of last August. The reason I say that is because the markets can't actually get bearish until they take out the most recent "important" low. ("Which low is the important one" can be a matter of debate.) Bear markets are made of (1) price pattern of "lower highs and lower lows", and (2) a "cloud of pessimism which lasts for months and months"... 'cause "the damned thing just can't rally, and my longs just keep losing more". All technical speculations aside, we don't have either of those yet... and for the market to be genuinely bearish, we need to see BOTH. Shoot... I can still make a technical argument for "higher highs" to come in 2016 before any bear market could set in.

Also.... bearish markets tend to "back check" some important break-down level early on.... mostly because the mass of players really don't want to believe in the decline. That could be a retest of the highs, a back-kiss of the 200MA on the Nasdaq @~5160... and there are others to watch.

So... while lots have proclaimed, "Bear market NOW"... I'm not yet convinced.
 
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