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Dow @ New Intraday High for 7/12...
- Thread starter MattF
- Start date
Yeah, well, there you go.
...........whatever, I'm long
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1529352
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=97227&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
Moved my stop to entry, 13700 so whatever happens, happens.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1529352
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=97227&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
Moved my stop to entry, 13700 so whatever happens, happens.
I will clarify.
You have the $SPX. Its comprised of large cap companies where about half of them have a P/E under 17. 20% of the index is financials. Financials have not been doing well. There are also several other sectors within the SPX that have not been doing well. This index is only up about 10% on the year and gains in it is like pulling teeth. It seems as if it is afraid of getting over its all time intraday high of 1450. Hasnt gone anywhere in about a month.
Then you have the $NDX. P/E of 24. This is up about 12% on the year and it has consistently made higher highs and higher lows these last few months while the $SPX has been making lower lows and lower highs.
I dont think the market will fall off a cliff, I believe value will fall off a cliff. I believe the $SPX will fall off a cliff and the $NDX will continue on to 3000.
If your sitting on the sidelines right now, thats a bad idea. Growth stocks in the NDX will continue their maddening pace higher. I know Amazon is going north of 100. Sitting in dividend paying stocks or value is madness.
You have the $SPX. Its comprised of large cap companies where about half of them have a P/E under 17. 20% of the index is financials. Financials have not been doing well. There are also several other sectors within the SPX that have not been doing well. This index is only up about 10% on the year and gains in it is like pulling teeth. It seems as if it is afraid of getting over its all time intraday high of 1450. Hasnt gone anywhere in about a month.
Then you have the $NDX. P/E of 24. This is up about 12% on the year and it has consistently made higher highs and higher lows these last few months while the $SPX has been making lower lows and lower highs.
I dont think the market will fall off a cliff, I believe value will fall off a cliff. I believe the $SPX will fall off a cliff and the $NDX will continue on to 3000.
If your sitting on the sidelines right now, thats a bad idea. Growth stocks in the NDX will continue their maddening pace higher. I know Amazon is going north of 100. Sitting in dividend paying stocks or value is madness.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Ok, then if the market is not doing what it wants, what is it doing?
Secondly, if today's move is logical, then what are you doing all this time calling for it to fall off a cliff, and then telling me I'm not using logic when I say it's going to continue?
Are you calling for a top here? If not, when? Clarify yourself a bit, because when I read the second post of this thread - the one that started our discussion - it sure sounded like you were looking for the market to "fall off a cliff". Wait, that's exactly what you said!
Did you not say the DOW will fall off a cliff?
Are you restating this?
As for me being on the sidelines, bad idea or not, I cannot trade/invest when I do not feel it is the right move. I, like you, believe something bad is about to happen.
Where we have our differences is in the belief that the market is acting "logical". You make the statement that "financials have not been doing well" yet the market continues on to new highs. Does that strike you as logical?
Are you restating this?
As for me being on the sidelines, bad idea or not, I cannot trade/invest when I do not feel it is the right move. I, like you, believe something bad is about to happen.
Where we have our differences is in the belief that the market is acting "logical". You make the statement that "financials have not been doing well" yet the market continues on to new highs. Does that strike you as logical?
I said it depends on the euro at this point.
Here, let me clarify all my points for you.
DIAMONDS- The DIA tracks closely with the Euro index and other currencies since most of the revenue on the Diamonds is derived from abroad. The relationship between the DOW and the Euro index is simple. As the Euro goes up, then the Dow goes up. On a price chart, the Euro appears to be at the right peak of a multi-year cup. Would you trust the price to go over the multi-year cup? I wouldnt trust it until it breaks over 1.40 and then my price target becomes 1.74. At that point, I would trust a further breakout of the Diamonds.
SPY- The $SPX index refuses to get over that 1550 level. Its at the right peak of a multi-year high. It just seems to pull back each time telling me that buyers are scared and sellers come out at that level, simple deduction. The SPX tends to be influenced by energy which seems to be going much higher from here.
The Qs- So that leaves Mr. NDX. Big money is throwing itself at the NDX as its the last possible index that doesnt have anything going against it. It still hasnt reached its year 2000 highs and wont for a while. The late stage in the business cycle usually favors high growth stocks. Stocks like Amazon and BIDU are going to unheard of levels. These are classic year 2000 stocks (BIDU wasnt around in 2000, but would have been a bubble stock if it had). The ole year 2000 stocks will be back, maybe not as maddening as before, but surely it will be similiar.
So I say to look at the big picture logically. If your a money manager, which index would you fish from?
Some people threw in the towel as their growth stocks crashed in 2000, but that was a mistake. They should have been looking at where money was going to. The SPY went down in 2000, but not all stocks and indexes headed lower. It was just a matter of money being transfered into other plays...
Here, let me clarify all my points for you.
DIAMONDS- The DIA tracks closely with the Euro index and other currencies since most of the revenue on the Diamonds is derived from abroad. The relationship between the DOW and the Euro index is simple. As the Euro goes up, then the Dow goes up. On a price chart, the Euro appears to be at the right peak of a multi-year cup. Would you trust the price to go over the multi-year cup? I wouldnt trust it until it breaks over 1.40 and then my price target becomes 1.74. At that point, I would trust a further breakout of the Diamonds.
SPY- The $SPX index refuses to get over that 1550 level. Its at the right peak of a multi-year high. It just seems to pull back each time telling me that buyers are scared and sellers come out at that level, simple deduction. The SPX tends to be influenced by energy which seems to be going much higher from here.
The Qs- So that leaves Mr. NDX. Big money is throwing itself at the NDX as its the last possible index that doesnt have anything going against it. It still hasnt reached its year 2000 highs and wont for a while. The late stage in the business cycle usually favors high growth stocks. Stocks like Amazon and BIDU are going to unheard of levels. These are classic year 2000 stocks (BIDU wasnt around in 2000, but would have been a bubble stock if it had). The ole year 2000 stocks will be back, maybe not as maddening as before, but surely it will be similiar.
So I say to look at the big picture logically. If your a money manager, which index would you fish from?
Some people threw in the towel as their growth stocks crashed in 2000, but that was a mistake. They should have been looking at where money was going to. The SPY went down in 2000, but not all stocks and indexes headed lower. It was just a matter of money being transfered into other plays...
Quote from Ivanovich:
Did you not say the DOW will fall off a cliff?
Are you restating this?
As for me being on the sidelines, bad idea or not, I cannot trade/invest when I do not feel it is the right move. I, like you, believe something bad is about to happen.
Where we have our differences is in the belief that the market is acting "logical". You make the statement that "financials have not been doing well" yet the market continues on to new highs. Does that strike you as logical?
Interesting hypothesis. I'll read more into it. But everything you've stated has been true for a while now. You've not shown any evidence that it will change merely because the Euro is at multi-year highs.
Furthermore, you've not shown me the market is behaving logically in any manner whatsoever.
But I appreciate the time.
Cheers.
Furthermore, you've not shown me the market is behaving logically in any manner whatsoever.
But I appreciate the time.
Cheers.
Quote from michaelscott:
I said it depends on the euro at this point.
Here, let me clarify all my points for you.
DIAMONDS- The DIA tracks closely with the Euro index and other currencies since most of the revenue on the Diamonds is derived from abroad. The relationship between the DOW and the Euro index is simple. As the Euro goes up, then the Dow goes up. On a price chart, the Euro appears to be at the right peak of a multi-year cup. Would you trust the price to go over the multi-year cup? I wouldnt trust it until it breaks over 1.40 and then my price target becomes 1.74. At that point, I would trust a further breakout of the Diamonds.
SPY- The $SPX index refuses to get over that 1550 level. Its at the right peak of a multi-year high. It just seems to pull back each time telling me that buyers are scared and sellers come out at that level, simple deduction. The SPX tends to be influenced by energy which seems to be going much higher from here.
The Qs- So that leaves Mr. NDX. Big money is throwing itself at the NDX as its the last possible index that doesnt have anything going against it. It still hasnt reached its year 2000 highs and wont for a while. The late stage in the business cycle usually favors high growth stocks. Stocks like Amazon and BIDU are going to unheard of levels. These are classic year 2000 stocks (BIDU wasnt around in 2000, but would have been a bubble stock if it had). The ole year 2000 stocks will be back, maybe not as maddening as before, but surely it will be similiar.
So I say to look at the big picture logically. If your a money manager, which index would you fish from?
Some people threw in the towel as their growth stocks crashed in 2000, but that was a mistake. They should have been looking at where money was going to. The SPY went down in 2000, but not all stocks and indexes headed lower. It was just a matter of money being transfered into other plays...
There you go again rambling like the mentally impaired putz that you are. All of your analysis is completely wrong.
Not once have you made a single accurate prediction in all of your 1256 posts. You never updated us on your rimm, aapl,ma, and goog short. did you enjoy losing money? I hope so since you seem to be pretty good at it. I figure by now you have gotten used to making losing trades.
Quote from michaelscott:
So far the market has fit into logic perfectly. The retreat in 2000 was predictable, the bottom in 2002-2003 was just as predictable and then the fact that we would make it to the other side of the right peak on the SPX was just as predictable.
If you look at the SPX, every move has been very predictable and very logical.
The market doesnt do what it wants, but there is a larger picture. The SPX still hasnt set a new high since June 4th.
I feel the SPX will be pulling back in the future as value is cast aside and the NDX will move higher. SPX 1130, NDX 3000.
Predictable by whom? By YOUM??
Did you predict it?
If you did, you would be a billionaire..
But, you said 2 days ago that you were 'heavily short'.
Could you and your magical predictive powers not have predicted this??