Dow low in place
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
thee is no question investing works. That being said if you bought japan bank in late 80, it would not.
let’s see who fares better this decade, traders or investors.
We may even see prices below those generational prices on Monday
I remember quite well last week you predicted 2850 is the bottom
Now those generational prices
Let's see what kind of bail outs bank get and how much shareholder value left after all said and done
TD and BMO don't need bail outs they are tremendous money makers at discount prices on Wednesday and absurdly low prices on Thursday. The point is not what they'll do extreme short term; it's what they do when the TSX recovers as it always does from the 11900-12500 level. Friday's trade was all about increasing rate spreads that are good for banks people finally figured it out. Mark this down; BMO at $60C and TD at $50C are unsustainably low moving forward. Earnings in May will come out and people will see the value. In fact, some buyers tend to get in prior and buying/holding Cdn banks in the two weeks before earnings is often a good trade.
And I seriously doubt we'll see those prices Monday but if we do it's another chance for traders to make 18% in short order.
Depends on your goals and risk tolerance. The trade I recommended will do well regardless of the overall market conditions. There are very few trades as reliable as buying one of the top Canadian banks on any major correction. There are reasons for this; it's an oligopoly industry heavily supported by millions of Canadians who tend to be more risk adverse then Americans. For long term investors, someone buying TD in 1995 and reinvesting dividends was up something like 2500% in 2019.
Worst case they'll flat line and bore you but with a 5.5-7% dividend you get paid to wait ( over 6% on Thursday ).
Look I share your thesis and I bought 25% in my retirement accounts of ZEB over Weds/Thurs. But with that said, who knows how this plays out.
I can tell you the chart went up for 25 years in Japan until 1990. Just saying.
Swing trading investments is all about probabilities not certainties. Thursday prices weren't far off extreme support and earnings and dividends are much higher now then in 2009-2013. Meanwhile, US equities are kind of at a midpoint area despite the correction. Value stocks like these have done almost nothing for several years so there is no rational basis for the large drop in price. Meanwhlle, the Toronto real estate market has quietly registered a really strong year again.
My observation, the easiest and best investments are always questioned the hardest by many traders. It's like they have to poke holes in anything that looks like free money. For example, the Toronto real estate market in year 2010. AAPL stock in year 2003 was skewered on here. The SPX from 2010-2014 as a short was the most popular trade on this site.
One might note the TSX took a much harder drop then US indexes despite badly lagging their rise since I believe 2011. Prior to that, the TSX outperformed US indexes 7 years running. In general, I'm in US markets now but this was a special moment when BMO was at year 2013 levels despite strong earnings their last quarter.
Last edited:
TD has outperformed the QQQ by a large margin the last 25 years. This week was the ultimate buy the dip moment for the stock, lowest level since 2016. BMO even a better deal, lowest level since 2013. If the same occurred to some of the big US IT firms, people would be tripping over themselves to buy them.
BMO net income last quarter was $1.6B up from $1.2B the previous quarter.
And from which source will old world banks garner earnings growth over and above say Technology stocks?
With interest rates scraping the floor and Asian buyers of RE gone dry.