DOW Crashing ?!

I am long. And after a few weeks, everyone will jump on the rally. I'll be selling a bit here and there. Then I'll dump a day or 2 before the top, and I'll go short. Everyone will be screamin long. And guess what, I'll be short.

We think that we are elite? and we are the contrarians? I tell you what, 99% of daytraders get whipped around losing money. So what gets discussed on these boards is generally popular opinion. As a contrarian trader, I add popular opinion to my arsenal of reverse indications for where the market is going.

So shorts, you are only confirming my beleif that this is the bottom.
 
I think we might get a rally also lundy, things are oversold. But, I'm not going long the indexes, looking to go long something that has been bucking the slide. I've got buy limit orders for calls below their current bids and see if I get filled.
 
Lundy,

Who said go short ??????
You cover your shorts today ...
You definitely don't go long ....
And you wait for the next opportunity to go short AGAIN ..

In bear trends, you ALWAYS go short ...
In bull tends, you ALWAYS go long ...

What kind of trend are we in ?

OOOOPPPPPSSSSSS ALL INDICES ARE HITTIN NEW LOWS ...
 
Verrrrry heavy volume today, but no super neg TICK. The guys that watch 'em say the ARMS and the CBOE P/C Ratio look better. Anyone know if we've had a Lowry's 90% day yet?
 
The only thing that I can find positive right now is that I feel like setting up a million shorts and coming back when they are at 0. Times when I get this negative have proved to be good opportunities in the past.

That said, it is very hard to make a case at this point for anything more than a short term tradeable rally. Every major index except Australia rolled over in the past week. Most concerning to me is the dumping of high yield debt this week and emerging market debt. Bond investors by nature are more risk averse than stock investors, if there were a sustainable recovery expected then they would have continued to bid up the junk. Unless this was just asset allocation, which I doubt.

Not to mention, most in not all of Februarys support and in many cases Sept support from the recent lows have been blown out.

Hope everyone has a safe and prosperous weekend.
 
someone posted about the Dow needing to catch up with the NAZ and the SPZ....it makes sense...things otta be pretty horrible accross the board if that happens.
 
Good chart reads also. Looked at 3 leaders from 1987-9/11/02-yesterday.

GM MSFT, LUV still look good; but usually trade smaller caps,in non emergencys. Profit and loss on LUV looked reasonable [day] when NYSE first opened up again in SEPT/02.

--------------------------

''Never overtrade'' ''By the grace of God I was in the right place at the right time.'' Thru Jack Schwager,
Paul Tudor Jones, game bird shooter.
 
The Dow won't play catch up with the NAS and the S&P. The very reason it has held up so well is because it is selling at a much lower valuation than the the S&P. The Dow has a PE of 25 and the S&P is 39. Dow stocks are fairly defensive. And in this market investors are looking for safety - established names, sector dominance and proven dividend performance.

I expect it to sell lower, but I believe it will outperform the S&P in relative terms because of this fact. If you broke up the S&P component stocks into growth or value, you can bet that a disproportionate amount of the indexes fall can be attributed to falls in growth stocks. Many of which still have a long way to slide.

Runningbear
 
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