DOW Crashing ?!

Bono · May 30, 2002

Earlier this morning, while checking my email, I noticed a complimentary email sent by this company, I think the name was "Trade Analytics" ... anyway, they were comparing two DOW charts :

The first, showing the latest major bull market started in the 1980s, and consisting of a primary bull trend started in the mid 80s, and then a steeper one started in the mid 90s. The 90s' trend was clearly broken downward, as the market approached the primary 80s trend near 8,600 - if I recall properly - before rebounding (and that's where we currently stand).

The second chart, showing the 1920s bull market, followed by a similar steeper upward trend, which was penetrated downward before the market rebounded (similar to where we currently stand), but guess what happened next ?! The famous CRASH !

Any thoughts ?

Atlantic · May 30, 2002

well - we'll see.

here's another article that paints ugly pictures:

http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/nasdaq1929.htm

enjoy!

chasinfla · May 30, 2002

the trend is your friend.

except when it isn't.

bullmarket79 · May 30, 2002

I would think the nasdaq would be more likely comparison to the 1929 crash.

Bono · May 30, 2002

bullmarket,

I agree, but the problem here is that Nasdaq has already witnessed a very steep decline since April 2000, whereas comparatively, the DOW held well during that period where people mostly regarded it as a safe haven. I wouldn't imagine the case when the DOW itself would be the one to crash ... maybe people will get back to technology stocks then ...

dotslashfuture · May 30, 2002

I think it will pull back to the september low at least, since value orientation is coming back into style among fund managers, and the value just ain't there. Also the dollar is collapsing so the foreighn money is leaving for europe.

DATTrader · May 30, 2002

We are seeing the beginning of a correction that will leave the DOW below 300. THis will complete the 5th wave of a cycle that started just after the Revolutionary War. I am serious that is what they think is happening right now.

Banjo · May 30, 2002

300?, Dude, this is gonna be a lonely place.

NUTSNEAL · May 30, 2002

I hope it doesn't get too lonely.

Anyone not making money with a move from here to DOW 300 is not a trader. THEY ARE AN INVESTOR!!!

dgabriel · May 30, 2002

Originally posted by DATTrader
We are seeing the beginning of a correction that will leave the DOW below 300. THis will complete the 5th wave of a cycle that started just after the Revolutionary War. I am serious that is what they think is happening right now.

How could they have charted this? Wasn't the Dow invented in the early part of the 20th century?

And where can I get a hit of what the Elliot Wave people are on?