Dow Chart 3/11/2004

If you did not have a reason to trade or you did not have a short signal for a swing trade over the last 4 days, then you need to find out how your system could miss such an awesome move. All you really had to do was hop on the elevator and ride it down (at least when the 50 EMA was broken if not before). The last four days might be some of the most clear days to determine market direction that we will get all year, and you have to take advantage of such windfall type of days. We had the ES go from 1063.75 (ES04H) on the 5th of March, to this morning in the overnight go as low as 1101.00 (ES04M). When you get a 62.75 pt move in only about 5 days of trading you have to put some of that in your pocket. Actually you should put a lot of that in your pocket, such a big move that is.
 
Chartingmarkets -

Why did you choose to draw your uptrend line from those two points instead of the many other sets of later points?
 
Quote from Quah:

Chartingmarkets -

Why did you choose to draw your uptrend line from those two points instead of the many other sets of later points?
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I looked at several diagonal uptrend lines all of which ended up breaking. Here is the thing when a chart is plunging up or down such as most charts are currently, a diagonal trendline most likely will not hold. The only good support for expanding price action is consolidated price action. That consolidated price action looking to the left of the chart, begins around 9900 or so on the Dow. As for that diagonal trendline that I drew, consider it to be visual fodder and you might as well toss it out, but I left it there only because it converged with the horizontal price support making it look pretty. Thats the truth.
 
Quote from TradEStar:

If you did not have a reason to trade or you did not have a short signal for a swing trade over the last 4 days, then you need to find out how your system could miss such an awesome move. All you really had to do was hop on the elevator and ride it down (at least when the 50 EMA was broken if not before). The last four days might be some of the most clear days to determine market direction that we will get all year, and you have to take advantage of such windfall type of days. We had the ES go from 1063.75 (ES04H) on the 5th of March, to this morning in the overnight go as low as 1101.00 (ES04M). When you get a 62.75 pt move in only about 5 days of trading you have to put some of that in your pocket. Actually you should put a lot of that in your pocket, such a big move that is.
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TradEStar,

You are correct! I did have a short rather than a long bias (broken supports,big down volume, etc.) but since I wasn't confident of the magnitude of the move all I could have done is to enter a very small position or just play a day trade. I preferred however not to check if I am right...

Right now I don't feel I've missed an important opportunity because it simply didn't look like one a week ago (for a swing trade).

May be I am trying to be smarter than the market but only the future can tell how I am doing :)

P.S. I still feel bad about missing a great opportunity and that was a long in AVCI when it went above 18.00 on Feb 26. The setup was absolutely perfect!!! I didn't take it because I thought the market was week (NAS just went below 2000). I really left a ton of money on the table :mad: I hope that some of you took it :D
 
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