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Dow 16k by year end?
- Thread starter turkeyneck
- Start date
If you're referring to me... then what do you mean with 'my view'? The fact that I think it's foolish to rule out a market direction as being impossible because one can't seem to subjectively rationalize supporting catalysts?Quote from mokwit:
Do you actually have money on the line to supprt your view. Have you increased your position lately?
"This process tends to start waaaay before headlines or economic data becomes wildly bullish."
"..........markets can change in a heartbeat I guarantee you will likely be on the sidelines while markets see a huge multi-week rally."
Perhaps I am inferring something that you have not implicitly state but it seems to me you are suggesting in this and other posts that we are about to have a prolonged rally and anybody who is bearish is wrong. We may have a multiweek rally, they happen before a bear market has finished, and I don't disagree with the first statement quoted above, but generally the rally that marks the recovery does not happen until people are so pessimistic that they ignore it as just another technical rally like the ones they jumped on all the way down. Right now it seems people are diving in unable to believe the opportunity to pick up "bargains" - both in housing and in the stock market.
"..........markets can change in a heartbeat I guarantee you will likely be on the sidelines while markets see a huge multi-week rally."
Perhaps I am inferring something that you have not implicitly state but it seems to me you are suggesting in this and other posts that we are about to have a prolonged rally and anybody who is bearish is wrong. We may have a multiweek rally, they happen before a bear market has finished, and I don't disagree with the first statement quoted above, but generally the rally that marks the recovery does not happen until people are so pessimistic that they ignore it as just another technical rally like the ones they jumped on all the way down. Right now it seems people are diving in unable to believe the opportunity to pick up "bargains" - both in housing and in the stock market.
No, I think you misunderstood me. I think the bears still get the benefit of the doubt right now. IMO we're still in a solid down trend until proven otherwise. SPX breaking through 1400 would tip the scales to the bulls but that's still a good distance away.
The point I was trying to make is that waiting for "good news" or "positive catalysts" will likely keep you out of a huge rally because markets have - in my experience - the tendency to make the most significant moves before good economic statistics eventually hit the wire. Just like they turn down way before all the bad news is out.
The point I was trying to make is that waiting for "good news" or "positive catalysts" will likely keep you out of a huge rally because markets have - in my experience - the tendency to make the most significant moves before good economic statistics eventually hit the wire. Just like they turn down way before all the bad news is out.
Quote from makloda:
No, I think you misunderstood me. I think the bears still get the benefit of the doubt right now. IMO we're still in a solid down trend until proven otherwise. SPX breaking through 1400 would tip the scales to the bulls but that's still a good distance away.
The point I was trying to make is that waiting for "good news" or "positive catalysts" will likely keep you out of a huge rally because markets have - in my experience - the tendency to make the most significant moves before good economic statistics eventually hit the wire. Just like they turn down way before all the bad news is out.
Fair enough, "your business is with the tape" in other words. Perhaps I misinterpreted something.
They can print enough money to get it to 16k if they want to. That does not imply it will be WORTH more, though.
The best stock market on the planet last year in terms of percentage rise was Zimbabwe, but only because asset inflation was so high.
The best stock market on the planet last year in terms of percentage rise was Zimbabwe, but only because asset inflation was so high.