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Dow 14000
- Thread starter eagle488
- Start date
Quote from eagle488:
I just completed a comprehensive analysis of historical data on the DJIA. If you average out all the positive years since 1983, you get 16%. There were some outlier years that had posted gains as much as 35% and as little as 3%. Assuming a 16% average return and doing a little rounding, I am getting DOW 14000 in exactly 1 year.
That's interesting EagleEye but I am scared. I am no trader but I think this new high Dow is nothing more than a staged fall election plan/ploy....along with how fast gasoline prices dropped.
Now again, I am no trader but I do watch things and I have observed something that is sending me smoke signals that this record Dow is bullshit....I know no one will ask me what I observed but I will tell you anyway. You see, everytime I see a REAL rally in the Dow, I have always noticed that both GE and FDX have participated in it....but when the Dow hit the recent record, both GE and FDX were lower than their 52 year highs..Those 2 stocks were even down on days this Dow was up good...those are smoke signals being sent to:
Look out below..
A huge drop coming..
So says Handsome.
Quote from eagle488:
I just completed a comprehensive analysis of historical data on the DJIA. If you average out all the positive years since 1983, you get 16%. There were some outlier years that had posted gains as much as 35% and as little as 3%. Assuming a 16% average return and doing a little rounding, I am getting DOW 14000 in exactly 1 year.
why did you ignore negative years and how do you know when negative year will occur?
Quote from forex-forex:
16% since 1983 seems too high, are you sure about that? Maybe in the < 8% range.
No, here is the data I am looking at since 1983
2005 â.61
2004 +3.15
2003 +25.32
2002 â16.76
2001 â7.10
2000 â6.18
1999 +25.22
1998 +16.10
1997 +22.64
1996 +26.01
1995 +33.45
1994 +2.14
1993 +13.72
1992 +4.17
1991 +20.32
1990 â4.34
1989 +26.96
1988 +11.85
1987 +2.26
1986 +22.58
1985 +27.66
1984 â3.74
1983 +20.27
The average of all the data above is 11.53%. Eliminate all the negative years and you have 17.87%. If we are assuming that next year will be positive, then we can assume with some reason that the value will lie somewhere between 16-18%.
There were only 6 down years for the average in the time frame.
The DIA crossed over the 50 day moving average on or about August 24th. The current 50 day is 116 and 200 day is 111.48. It appears to be the classic staircase walk-up formation. I am betting that this formation is going to last at least 1 year or more.
I dont see any problems lieing ahead of us economically. The earnings and outlook from many of the sectors is indeed strong. There are only a few sectors such as homebuilding, semis, etc that are appearing to be weak, but even those might prove to be short term. Most of the geopolitical problems are now behind us. People are used to terrorism, Iraq, Iran, etc. The oil market doesnt seem to be moving to swiftly even on Iran's weapons news and OPECS cuts.
As oil further weakens and falls off the cliff, this will only strengthen the Dow Jones components earnings. That will be the key.
The bearishness of the last 7 years will now be put to an end. I strongly believe the DOW components are going to go into bull market mode much in the same way that small caps have boomed these last 2-3 years.
lets get to dow 13,000 before we talk dow 14,000.
If the dow was at 10950 talk of 12,000 would be an illusion.
Ever since the dow has surged and hasnt seen a dip in nearly 3 WHOLE months people think its going to continue to run forever. When we get that first triple digit loss reality will finally sink in. Especially for all the newbies putting their money to work above dow 12k. Hey if we cant make money in Real estate and savings rates are around 4-5% lets put it back to work in stocks, history has told us on average the markets return approx 8% a year....
If the dow was at 10950 talk of 12,000 would be an illusion.
Ever since the dow has surged and hasnt seen a dip in nearly 3 WHOLE months people think its going to continue to run forever. When we get that first triple digit loss reality will finally sink in. Especially for all the newbies putting their money to work above dow 12k. Hey if we cant make money in Real estate and savings rates are around 4-5% lets put it back to work in stocks, history has told us on average the markets return approx 8% a year....
When I see something like this
1999 +25.22
1998 +16.10
1997 +22.64
1996 +26.01
1995 +33.45
1994 +2.14
1993 +13.72
1992 +4.17
1991 +20.32
I think why do bulls cry when we get a sell-off......ever see cnbc talk about the markets in the morning when the futures are down 2. They make it sound like the greatest news ever told, almost like the markets are on the verge of collapsing. Pathetic..
9 years of just incredible returns......dont cry if the markets pull back 5% between now and December.
1999 +25.22
1998 +16.10
1997 +22.64
1996 +26.01
1995 +33.45
1994 +2.14
1993 +13.72
1992 +4.17
1991 +20.32
I think why do bulls cry when we get a sell-off......ever see cnbc talk about the markets in the morning when the futures are down 2. They make it sound like the greatest news ever told, almost like the markets are on the verge of collapsing. Pathetic..
9 years of just incredible returns......dont cry if the markets pull back 5% between now and December.
The economy of California is often cited for how it would compare to other countries if California were an independent nation. The statistic quoted varies widely (usually placing California between 6th and 10th), depending on the source.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California
according to labor dept.
1 construction
2 RE brokers
3 RE agents
4 How many other jobs relate to housing?
I belive housing will play a major role in economy.
What will happen I do not know, but above makes me worry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California
according to labor dept.
1 construction
2 RE brokers
3 RE agents
4 How many other jobs relate to housing?
I belive housing will play a major role in economy.
What will happen I do not know, but above makes me worry.