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Dow 13,875 Naz 2690 S&P 1560
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Quote from Duard (at 5 pm Tuesday after Tuesday's sell-off)
I don't think the bottom is in yet. Seems like we sell-off tommorrow morning and then rally. Rattle around until after options expiration then boom another leg-down.
The excerpt below is from LBR Raschke's Blog. This is also why I felt the scenarion may play out as it did Tuesday night. On cue it unfolds near script-like with a few ad lib features. This also illustrates why studying the markets especially historical trends can be helpful.
"Triples Expiration week has always been one of my favorites. Here are some stats (courtesy of Yale Hirsch) that I have followed over the years:
Triples expiration week tends to have a mild positive bias. The week after triples has a downside bias. IF triples is a negative week, the week following triples is even weaker then normal.
Two things I watch for as well: If the first two days of the week are up, the next 1 1/2 days are down, OR, vice versa. This used to be quite pronounced as the majority of unwinds took place well before Friday. IF the market has made a big move and more calls are in the money, then triples has an even stronger upward bias."
I don't think the bottom is in yet. Seems like we sell-off tommorrow morning and then rally. Rattle around until after options expiration then boom another leg-down.
The excerpt below is from LBR Raschke's Blog. This is also why I felt the scenarion may play out as it did Tuesday night. On cue it unfolds near script-like with a few ad lib features. This also illustrates why studying the markets especially historical trends can be helpful.
"Triples Expiration week has always been one of my favorites. Here are some stats (courtesy of Yale Hirsch) that I have followed over the years:
Triples expiration week tends to have a mild positive bias. The week after triples has a downside bias. IF triples is a negative week, the week following triples is even weaker then normal.
Two things I watch for as well: If the first two days of the week are up, the next 1 1/2 days are down, OR, vice versa. This used to be quite pronounced as the majority of unwinds took place well before Friday. IF the market has made a big move and more calls are in the money, then triples has an even stronger upward bias."
Out of ALL my remaining longs on this mornings small bump. Initiated shorts at the same time. Now net short again. Will hold into next week. I'm done for today. Expecting weakness next week to test the 1366-1372 area in the SP500. Likely an inverse H & S will form and we rally for awhile once this short-term bottom is place then we roll lower again to the next support level with a bottom at 1250 in the Spoos which would be a 13% correction. We will definitely pause there for awhile...
After that depends on what happens as equities fall to the rest of the economy and the emerging markets, etc....
Just some musings...
Have a great weekend.
After that depends on what happens as equities fall to the rest of the economy and the emerging markets, etc....
Just some musings...
Have a great weekend.
Quote from duard:
Out of ALL my remaining longs on this mornings small bump. Initiated shorts at the same time. Now net short again. Will hold into next week. I'm done for today. Expecting weakness next week to test the 1366-1372 area in the SP500. Likely an inverse H & S will form and we rally for awhile once this short-term bottom is place then we roll lower again to the next support level with a bottom at 1250 in the Spoos which would be a 13% correction. We will definitely pause there for awhile...
After that depends on what happens as equities fall to the rest of the economy and the emerging markets, etc....
Just some musings...
Have a great weekend.
looking for 1350 to break on the s&p over the next few weeks, support is around 1310. We break 1310, say hello to 1250. I would be very bullish around that level.