Dow 10,000
- Thread starter TrendPro
- Start date
Quote from TrendPro:
Nice trade romik !
Good to see these WW's do work sometimes
I didn't trade it, I just pointed it out. If I was to trade a WW, it would have to be a perfect set-up, exactly like on the vendor's sample charts. You see, when I mentioned flag patterns, let's assume price action is bullish and S&P goes 10 up withing an hour of the open (from yesterday's MOC), basically it's an upward price pole and then you normally get a pullback (a flag), WWs basically measure a point of entry and a point of exit via 1,2,3,4,5 values, but as I mentioned prior I expect the set-up to be perfect to trade it.
15 for intraday is too wide IMO, stick with 1 min, stand back from the monitor and observe a possible pattern formation.
This next chart is an update of the original chart I posted to open this thread.
I switched to a daily line chart and zoomed up to 2 years 3 months, which includes the low point that started this price channel. I included the 5 turning points, and divergences. The channel lines are parallel, I drew the top line first connecting points 1 and 3, then made a copy of that line and placed it at the channel starting point (9749.99 closing Low).
New on the chart are the two horizontal lines on the $VIX chart. The red line at 11, and the green line at 16.5, which correspond to the channel lines on the price chart.
I switched to a daily line chart and zoomed up to 2 years 3 months, which includes the low point that started this price channel. I included the 5 turning points, and divergences. The channel lines are parallel, I drew the top line first connecting points 1 and 3, then made a copy of that line and placed it at the channel starting point (9749.99 closing Low).
New on the chart are the two horizontal lines on the $VIX chart. The red line at 11, and the green line at 16.5, which correspond to the channel lines on the price chart.
Updated chart through Friday.
Zoomed in on the daily candle chart of the dow with the $VIX line chart, going back to the July 2006 low.
Remember this is taken within the context of the larger 2 year / 5 up wave channel shown on the previous charts posted. This zoomed in view lets us focus in on the recent uptrend and the point 5 high/top.
We see the $VIX has moved back above the 11 level after forming a divergence with the previous low on a closing basis. So far so good.
The next step is a test of the 50 day simple moving average shown on the chart. The eventual pullback from the point 5 high will be expected to stop at this support line. A break below the 50 day SMA line would alter those expectations a bit.
All in good time, or as they say, one day at a time.
Zoomed in on the daily candle chart of the dow with the $VIX line chart, going back to the July 2006 low.
Remember this is taken within the context of the larger 2 year / 5 up wave channel shown on the previous charts posted. This zoomed in view lets us focus in on the recent uptrend and the point 5 high/top.
We see the $VIX has moved back above the 11 level after forming a divergence with the previous low on a closing basis. So far so good.
The next step is a test of the 50 day simple moving average shown on the chart. The eventual pullback from the point 5 high will be expected to stop at this support line. A break below the 50 day SMA line would alter those expectations a bit.
All in good time, or as they say, one day at a time.
In response to the market break this week, just a quick update on the larger containing 5 wave structure and related trend channel, along with the anticipated $VIX spike.
Although the timing of the original posting was a touch early, the overall thesis and larger market structure is intact.
I see two reasonable scenario's in the week's and month's ahead:
1. the Dow holds this upper channel line and forms a new higher channel,
-or-
2. a more significant and sustained downtrend develops, perhaps after a failing rally off this trendline, taking prices back down through the channel to the lower trendline.
Although the timing of the original posting was a touch early, the overall thesis and larger market structure is intact.
I see two reasonable scenario's in the week's and month's ahead:
1. the Dow holds this upper channel line and forms a new higher channel,
-or-
2. a more significant and sustained downtrend develops, perhaps after a failing rally off this trendline, taking prices back down through the channel to the lower trendline.
The dow isn;t going to 10000 unless:
Massive middle east unrest resulting in surging oil prices and negative sentiment
A random, unforseen economic event that triggers either very high inflation resultign in many rate hikes
A large terrorist strike on US or Europe soil
Othwerwire I dont see any reason why the dow cant go to 13000 soon
all these elliot waves and other wave pattern charts are useless. They are subject to interpretation and since everyone has a different one it is impossible to derive any meaningful conclusions with them. And they don't work anyway.
Massive middle east unrest resulting in surging oil prices and negative sentiment
A random, unforseen economic event that triggers either very high inflation resultign in many rate hikes
A large terrorist strike on US or Europe soil
Othwerwire I dont see any reason why the dow cant go to 13000 soon
all these elliot waves and other wave pattern charts are useless. They are subject to interpretation and since everyone has a different one it is impossible to derive any meaningful conclusions with them. And they don't work anyway.