Double Top in 2010-13, then G.D. II?

[tomahawk]

Quote from Gubinec:

With all the govt stimulus spending the markets will start a huge long-term rally again, make a double top formation near the 1500 level, ...

We already made a double top, an almost perfect one, in Oct. '07. This has been the reversal off that to the tune of almost -60%. If we see that 1576 S&P level again, which I don't think we will any time soon, it will probably go on to make new highs.

There will always be another stock market bubble, be it next year or 15-20 years from now.

 

[dumb_mother]

Quote from tomahawk:

We already made a double top, an almost perfect one, in Oct. '07. This has been the reversal off that to the tune of almost -60%. If we see that 1576 S&P level again, which I don't think we will any time soon, it will probably go on to make new highs.

There will always be another stock market bubble, be it next year or 15-20 years from now.

yeah it still surprises me more people don't already recognize that as a double top, which means to me if we see 665 we are going to see 400

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Quote from dumb_mother:

no chance we revisit the real value of 1500 before 2018 and i wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again period. only way we'll see it is with wiemarch dollars.

this next bear market is going to be another deflation trade to ruin the gold bugs who all jumped in after gold ran up 400% from the 2001 levels- we will see those levels again prolly dropping oil to 20$ and gold to 200$, at that point we will see a steady fleeing from the danger of the dollar and our real standard of living will fall out of the dreamy sky we are currently in.

dm

+1 Just look at the current price of Rhodium. It has completely colapsed. It went from 10k to 1.6k. The next logical choice after the China boom is Africa. There is alot of economic, industrial, consumer growth just waiting to explode on the continent.

Akuma

 

[forexsnipper]

where did you get that crazy idea

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from Gubinec:

With all the govt stimulus spending the markets will start a huge long-term rally again, make a double top formation near the 1500 level, and then suffer the biggest crash in its history as all the side-effects of the massive stimulus start popping up on the surface again.

Feel free to add your own predictions on this...

One wild, unsupported guess is as good as another.

 

[gigsup]

Quote from dumb_mother:

no chance we revisit the real value of 1500 before 2018 and i wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again period. only way we'll see it is with wiemarch dollars.

this next bear market is going to be another deflation trade to ruin the gold bugs who all jumped in after gold ran up 400% from the 2001 levels- we will see those levels again prolly dropping oil to 20$ and gold to 200$, at that point we will see a steady fleeing from the danger of the dollar and our real standard of living will fall out of the dreamy sky we are currently in.

dm

Estimates on gold prices run the gamut. Until the currency
turmoil in the world abates, gold will stay bid. Lyle Gramley
and others have hinted at the role gold will play in the future
" IF" the worst comes to pass. One thing is for certain, US
Treas. is bankrupt. How that will affect gold in the future is
anyone's guess.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from drsteph:

I've posted on this topic before:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2487610#post2487610

No money available to buy stocks = no upside. Mom and Pop are going to take every opportunity to flatten out their 401k's on retracements that they can.

In fact, I wonder what that guy who does the credit market report has to say about mutual fund outflows particularly from equity funds. Would be interesting to research.

Steph is right again.

People have gotten decimated, the value of everything from their homes to 401(k) to their investment properties have plunged, they're insecure in their jobs if they haven't gotten laid off, retirees are losing pensions and health care because of corporate bankruptcies, and the last thing the public trusts or will trust is Wall Street.

There won't be any rocket fuel for any equity market bull to ride for a long, long time.

In fact, the reverse is true. There's a record amount of baby boomers about to cash out of the stock market, and they'll feel the weight of the world off their shoulders, as they wash their hands of what they rightfully perceive is a rigged game (they finally get the nefarious deeds that Goldman Sachs and 'Hedge Funds' do), and they'll be more than happy to downscale their living standards with cash in the bank, no matter how low the yields, where at least they know they won't lose another 50% of their wealth or more.

 

[Topper]

Presidential elections in 2012 can prove to be quite the catalyst.

I'm amazed at the lack of faith most of you have for the US. Sit and whine like a bunch of wussies about a jackass voted into power or start getting loud to your congress... Be weak or be strong. In any case, my buddy's print-finish shop was dead the last quarter to the point of a 40% drop in revenue and right now out of nowhere he has so much business that not only did he hire 4 new people, he actually bought a freakin' air mattress because he couldn't put in the nonstop 16 hour days and still drive back n forth to home. For those who are wondering, print finishing is industrial imprinting and die cutting. (High end printing)

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Topper:

Presidential elections in 2012 can prove to be quite the catalyst.

I'm amazed at the lack of faith most of you have for the US. Sit and whine like a bunch of wussies about a jackass voted into power or start getting loud to your congress... Be weak or be strong. In any case, my buddy's print-finish shop was dead the last quarter to the point of a 40% drop in revenue and right now out of nowhere he has so much business that not only did he hire 4 new people, he actually bought a freakin' air mattress because he couldn't put in the nonstop 16 hour days and still drive back n forth to home. For those who are wondering, print finishing is industrial imprinting and die cutting. (High end printing)

It's from all the people printing thousands of resumes.

Tell your buddy to take cash or credit/debit card only. No checks.

 

[Topper]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

It's from all the people printing thousands of resumes.

Tell your buddy to take cash or credit/debit card only. No checks.

Print finishing actually doesn't deal with resumes and that type of print. To give you an example, one of the orders he just got within the last week was an order for 400,000 custom designed cigar wraps for which he just UPS'ed a portion to Fla today (7/11) which are to be flown out to Honduras. Basically, he stamped foil on them, embossed them, die cut them, had all the blanks popped out of them, packaged and shipped...whew! Meanwhile, another order was to foil stamp logos onto thousands of envelopes for Stryker Auto.... (bad ASS rides), as well as a prototype tabletop cube type thing for a Microsoft servicing company, NOT to mention three separate orders for custom folders to diecut fold and glue that he hasn't even been able to get on his machines and have been sitting for a week which is why he's gonna be working 10+ hours Sunday....as he prides in the fact he's never missed a deadline.

He's high end. An example would be that he does letterhead for people like William Clay Ford, Bill Ford Jr., Jack Van Impe... He's stamped Bibles for Bishops and Cardinals and has stamped a couple things for a couple different US Presidents. He's the one alot of the big dogs will use.

Bently, Lamborghini and Ferrari also use his services. Last year he had an order for half a million letterhead for Bently!

No resumes! Trust when I say that if his business picked up this sharply, it's something that may be a signal to the direction of the economy.