doom

so still nobody mortgaged house right.

please, 2 things -

1. call your bank today;
2. please do not mention 1999-2000.... you make yourself sound like an idiot.. like i said, the big difference is - in 1999 the dumb money was IN, today the dumb money is OUT.
 
here i am only about 1 month in there are already 500 virgins lining up for me..

and you are still digging ditches by the side of the high way.

what's it gonna take, tell me, what's it gonna take for you to call the bank.

there are still some virgins left.... but I am telling you the other guys are picking em up fast because they already called their banks.

are you really gonna regret this on your death bed... come on.... really.
 
I am gonna tell you again.... what is going on.

we are in the mark up phase.

- the chips are in the smart boys hands... dumb money is empty handed... case in point nobody mortgaging house;

- my pro boys already took gloves off.... retail is still f'ing dead asleep.... elite traders lol... dumb money as can be.

- fundamentally what is going on? easy money don't fight fed.... conventional wisdom... but why did we not move like this when Obama had zero rates?

- READ THE FOLLOWING 100 TIMES TODAY TO POUND THIS INTO YOUR HEAD.

WE ARE IN A RACE TO THE PERMANENT UPPER CLASS.

Yang's $1000 per month.... just a matter of time before you sorry asses don't even have a sorry cubicle to go to or a sorry ditch to dig by the side of the high way... the revolution is coming and the sheep have no idea... just punching that f'ing clock day after day.

after AI and robots take over you have a permanent divide... those own the mega techs become the upper class.... and the under class will be forever stuck in the $1000 per month sorry life...

no more education, no more jobs, everybody just play video games all day long.

this is not about the free virgins.... this is the permanent divide!
 
Q4 2018 taught me that anything goes. Remember that I am, in your words, only a 4-year trader. Well, Q4 2018 stung me like a nasty bee. I cannot take out a multiple-hundred-thousand dollar loan to go long. Not now.

Because Q4 2018 taught me that anything goes. Remember? Like how apparently 2008 taught YOU that anything goes?
 
Seaweed said:
Ok, let's make this more scientific. How much does the market have to decline before you consider yourself wrong? For example, at the end of 2018, we had a 24% decline for the NQ. Back in 2008 it was about 55%, and in 2000, it was a whopping 84% until the low hit in 2002.

View attachment 216906

Since you are suggesting people mortgage their house, do you think they should hold through a 20% draw down? Even a 50% drawdown? Obviously if its a leveraged investment even a 10% drawdown can be very painful.

I quite like the videos of this George Gammon guy and he is sharing important info in my opinion. He is even the first to point out that gold for him is only insurance and hardly a "get rich quick" scheme, so he isn't your typical doom and gloom gold bug type of guy.

Now it is true that the repo madness seems to have subsided going into 2020 (haven't watched the linked video yet), but it doesn't take a genius to understand that this entire market rally is fueled by FED liquidity. When that stops, the party stops. If you watch enough of his videos, you also learn that perhaps the FED won't be able to control things like interest rates much longer, and these are all important things to be aware of.

Your only premise of the market forever going higher can only work in one type of environment that the FED may not be able to keep up for much longer. So your prediction really needs some metrics, and hence why I ask.

Lastly, on my chart I outline via red arrows the first exuberant run-up to the 2000 high, and wouldn't you say that it looks pretty damn steep at the current level? So how much of a pull back are you saying is acceptable?
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this is low resolution thinking.

but it's a good lead in to the point I was gonna make...

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

if you sub with you email it will lead to historical data, which actually produces the bullish % graph for you.

the period of 98-2004, you see how the dumb money reacts... it heated up gradually, more and more people mortgaged house and got free virgins, they told buddies at work where they dig ditches together, their buddies mortgaged house, got even more free virgins, until the point where 60-70% thinking free virgins will come forever... then comes the crash from mid 2000 all the way down to 2004, where the dumb money could not forget the wonderful feelings of free virgins and catching all the falling knives until they all got free castrations.

now look at the period after 2009, public interest gets lower and lower except a couple of rare spikes... especially after 2016 due to the media 95% neg coverage of Trump the crowd been hovering 35% average pretty much.

the data is out there, house hold stock market participation, bank checking account balance, corporate cash balance, bond yield vs. equity yield, central bank purchasing speed, dumb money flow direction aka equity funds in/out flow.

it's all f'ing out there... I have made detailed explanations on all of them.

but people are blind and deaf.

sorry guys... you may think you are smart by stand aside and saying 'ha bubble'.... but you are the f'ing dumb money.

it's painful to accept you are the dumb money.

but YOU ARE.

call your f'ing bank.

TODAY.

btw next time please use reply.... I don't read every post.. peace.

and btw guys like Gammon are idiots.... they are only good for 1 purpose which I have also explained - look at the like/dislike ratio of their vids.... that will tell you where the dumb people are sitting.
 
I am not disputing you claim about probability it can go much higher just like it can go much lower.

My only point it is not wise to buy all time high, after run up we had. if someone wants to go long, wait for a dip.
 
RedDuke said:
I am not disputing you claim about probability it can go much higher just like it can go much lower.

My only point it is not wise to buy all time high, after run up we had. if someone wants to go long, wait for a dip.
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you can do a back test... btfd is actually a losing strategy compared to blind buy.
 
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