I know im new to trading; frankly its only been a few months or so but i dont know why this is happening but nothing and i mean nothing seems to be going my way. I can understand making bad mistakes when trading we all do but my situation seems to be just absolute terrible luck. I sell after a stock goes a few cents my way and then right after and i mean right after it plummets. I cant tell you how many times this has happened. Or when the setup of a beautiful short is presenting itself and i go to short it only to find out that the shares i have requested for reserve are no longer there AND the goddam stock just plummets!~!!!! Weird events such as the ones above keep taking place and Im honestly at my wits end. Once again i know im new to trading but WTF is up with this BS luck. Does this happen to anyone else or is this a freakin sign i should just quit.
dont mean to be complaining but
- Thread starter cashclay
- Start date
been there done that. Sometimes I can't hit the broad side of a barn to save my soul. It gets so predictable they all just sit around and wait until I sell then they all know it is safe to buy and they drive it way up there.
It's not BS luck.
The fact is this, since you've arrived at this forum, many members have been telling you that you do not know what you're doing and some (including me) have been recommending that you stop trading. All of such occurred within a few weeks after you started posting here.
Other members tried hard to encourage you to backtest your trade method but they soon discover you don't really have a method that can be backtested.
Seriously, anybody that wants to make money that states the following...
I sell after a stock goes a few cents my way and then right after and i mean right after it plummets. I cant tell you how many times this has happened.
That trader would sit down and backtest that above situation and if such had a high frequency...you would simply make adjustments in your entry or trade management after entry using statistics of your trade results.
If you refuse to do the above, is your goal to just to keep losing money ?
Simply, if you refuse to do something as simple as the above., stop trading...its not for you especially when you're asking anonymous folks for trade recommendations.
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Cashclay - I forgot what the statistics are exactly, but more than 90% of new traders fail. I think it's closer to 95%. So in order for you to succeed, you have to be the top 5%. Even the top 5% of new traders, some of them might only break even and then quit because they don't like it. You have to do your homework and get every piece of information you can on the subject and paper trade, backtest, then trade with a small size to see if what you're doing works, and how you can handle your emotions. Getting emotional over losing trades or missed opportunities will hurt you badly. Believe me, I've been there, and any successful trader on here will tell you that they've damaged their accounts by being overly emotional, which seems like how you are now. I can see the frustration in your text. I know it is much easier to say not to be emotional than to actually practice it, but if you get emotional, there's a high probability that you will start doing the "fuck it" trades. What I mean by that is, you will say "fuck it, I'm buying/shorting here even though I missed my opportunity because every time I do, my bias is almost always confirmed after the trade goes my way anyway."
All of what you described is part of trading, and you have to be strong emotionally. If you can't, then this profession is not for you. But if you go in with the attitude like "I'm going to do whatever it takes to become successful and I will learn from this", you are increasing your probability of becoming a great profitable trader, and then you will see your luck change. I use the word "luck" loosely.. but it does seem like luck has a way of finding the diligent traders, and pretty soon, you might find that whatever you are doing just seems to always be going your way for some reason or another once you build your intuition of how the markets move.
Don't be discouraged. Keep asking questions and take all the constructive criticism as feedback on how to trade.
For every person that buys, someone is taking the short or selling, and vice versa. This is basically a zero sum game, and we as traders are trying to take money from other traders... and the market will take your money in a heart beat if you are not in the right mindset.
All of what you described is part of trading, and you have to be strong emotionally. If you can't, then this profession is not for you. But if you go in with the attitude like "I'm going to do whatever it takes to become successful and I will learn from this", you are increasing your probability of becoming a great profitable trader, and then you will see your luck change. I use the word "luck" loosely.. but it does seem like luck has a way of finding the diligent traders, and pretty soon, you might find that whatever you are doing just seems to always be going your way for some reason or another once you build your intuition of how the markets move.
Don't be discouraged. Keep asking questions and take all the constructive criticism as feedback on how to trade.
For every person that buys, someone is taking the short or selling, and vice versa. This is basically a zero sum game, and we as traders are trying to take money from other traders... and the market will take your money in a heart beat if you are not in the right mindset.
By the way, I hope you didn't take that Vale short Cashclay. Vale broke out of that resistance you identified at $3.40. It tested that level on Feb 22. The more a stock or a market tests a particular level, the higher the probability that it will eventually break that level. And the fact that you said it is overbought.. you might be correct in the short term... But you have to look at a longer time frame. Look at how high Vale used to be and how much it has collapsed over the years. The snap back rallies will be violent and hard, and you have to consider the possibility that a new bull market is starting in Vale. Not saying that Vale has bottomed.. I believe that it has more room to the downside.. but consider every possibility from every angle.. and if the overwhelming weight of the evidence favors you, then it will be a higher probability trade.
X = Bullish(.33) + Neutral(.33) + Bearish(.33)
YZ Relationships, Conditionals, Dependences
1. Conjecture, Does P(X|YZ) = P(X) ?
2. Refutation, YES (Noise). NO (Signal)
While, Keep doing 1. & 2., trade signals.
Let anything else interfering signals.
Keep Record of outcomes related signals
a. False Positive b. True Positive
c. False Negative d. True Negative
Filter, Optimize, without iatrogenesis.
To reduce as best as you can a. & c.
Kick your butt to increase E(x)
Aka. Expectency.
Exemple : ...
First Limit your Loss
Second Cover your Cost
and Third Grow up you Gain
Via Negativa
What's the weakest link ?
Your PnL will be as weak as it.
Cut your biggest Harm, inaccuracy.
Allow the market to fulfill your expectations.
Because you won't tell the market how to behave.
Bonus_______
Alan Greenspan:
"I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
He further clarified his position ...
If I have made myself clear then you have misunderstood me."
YZ Relationships, Conditionals, Dependences
1. Conjecture, Does P(X|YZ) = P(X) ?
2. Refutation, YES (Noise). NO (Signal)
While, Keep doing 1. & 2., trade signals.
Let anything else interfering signals.
Keep Record of outcomes related signals
a. False Positive b. True Positive
c. False Negative d. True Negative
Filter, Optimize, without iatrogenesis.
To reduce as best as you can a. & c.
Kick your butt to increase E(x)
Aka. Expectency.
Exemple : ...
First Limit your Loss
Second Cover your Cost
and Third Grow up you Gain
Via Negativa
What's the weakest link ?
Your PnL will be as weak as it.
Cut your biggest Harm, inaccuracy.
Allow the market to fulfill your expectations.
Because you won't tell the market how to behave.
Bonus_______
Alan Greenspan:
"I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
He further clarified his position ...
If I have made myself clear then you have misunderstood me."
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One thing I notice this year so much more than before this year, and now understand my elders when I was in my twenties, I am losing patience with people. I mean like I tolerate 99% of people, good thing we don't have laser weapons yet, I'd attach one to front of my car, all the S.O.B.s have those bright ass lights, seen aimed for other people's eyes.
cashclay, am sure most on this forum have said to close down account and spend three years learning to trade and program, otherwise this is what you do, put all you money ten seconds before a huge report comes out and either buy SPY or ES till you lose it all, cause eventually you will, and if you trading ES, I won't even say thank you for your account.
WTF, you think you going to read a flipping book and think you God's gift to trading?
WE are the parking meter and you going to pay us all little at a time till the account is zero, then I hope you go to MaMa and daddy and ask for another 5k cause "they" robbed you of your money. Then I hear in background "Cha-ching" more money for us.
You trade low ass instrument, bid/ask not going to be tight, you think you are lucky to get filled your price and so fast too, when it was a sucker play as the opposing side going to stick it to you, You trade low volume and protective stops will nail you harder.
Too many are too polite, wake up and smell the losses.
If you have to ask a question, you not ready to trade, you have to have a Trading plan that has all the answers before the questions and you get that by studying price then testing that price.
cashclay, am sure most on this forum have said to close down account and spend three years learning to trade and program, otherwise this is what you do, put all you money ten seconds before a huge report comes out and either buy SPY or ES till you lose it all, cause eventually you will, and if you trading ES, I won't even say thank you for your account.
WTF, you think you going to read a flipping book and think you God's gift to trading?
WE are the parking meter and you going to pay us all little at a time till the account is zero, then I hope you go to MaMa and daddy and ask for another 5k cause "they" robbed you of your money. Then I hear in background "Cha-ching" more money for us.
You trade low ass instrument, bid/ask not going to be tight, you think you are lucky to get filled your price and so fast too, when it was a sucker play as the opposing side going to stick it to you, You trade low volume and protective stops will nail you harder.
Too many are too polite, wake up and smell the losses.
If you have to ask a question, you not ready to trade, you have to have a Trading plan that has all the answers before the questions and you get that by studying price then testing that price.