Don't blow it this time - Buy stocks when the hurricane hits.

[smilingsynic]

Quote from optionpro007:

According to the rules, you buy when blood is running down the streets. it's the way it has always been.

Any good trader should know that.

Yes, but for the most part, FIGURATIVE blood. When the phrase was coined, I think Baron Rothschild meant it for real.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from EtfTraderLives:

This has got to be one of the dumbest posts I've ever read.

Do you realize what damage Katrina did to the budget for the next 3 years? Did you not read Snow's statement and the Feds yesterday?

Do you realize what a category five hurricane will do if it hits Texas come Saturday? Regardless of what the press says, ITS A REAL EVENT AND THE MARKET DOESN"T LIKE UNCERTAINTY.

Are you certain over the next 3-5 days that this hurricane will do no trouble?

Go ahead. Be a hero and buy stock after it hits. Your portfolio will be decimated with that line of thinking. Without damage estimates, you are merely gambling in the wrong direction!

For an example of how this thinking is not necessarily best for making money, go back to the thread I started the Sunday before Katrina hit.

My thesis was that the Street and the media were underestimating the potential impact of Katrina. Based on my special knowledge of hurricanes (I live right on the coast), I argued that the hurricane had great potential for destroying New Orleans, and that the cost of cleanup could be well over $50 billion.

That night I sold my long ES futures position and sold short at 1197.50, anticipating 1180.

I was ABSOLUTELY CORRECT on the hurricane, but turned what would have been a very profitable month into a barely profitable month by selling right at the bottom (something I pride myself on NOT doing--but I thought, and rightfully so, that this was different).

The price of being right cannot accurately be gamed on the Street, at least if my experience is true. I did not see 1180 that time, and I wonder if we will this time.

Then again, maybe the impact of two major hurricanes back to back is being regarded as greater than if just one had hit. TWO may lead the US into recession.

You just never know.

 

[reno4nook]

I use a simple approach to investing.

Trying to pick market bottoms makes no sense.

Instead, i prefer to wait patiently and watch for signs of strong movements, up or down. When such a move becomes obvious, then I'll catch the wave and surf it.

Bottom line: it's better to react to big moves in the market than to try and predict them.

cheers,

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from smilingsynic:loptionpro0007

Yes, but for the most part, FIGURATIVE blood. When the phrase was coined, I think Baron Rothschild meant it for real.

=============
Think you are right and good thing that French Harrytrader speaks English;
because Baron Rothchild rightly figured the English speakers would win. Bilingual =winners also.

Not to take anything away from that pro floor trader,
like Banker dad said ,dont tell everything you know.

And sometimes. but not a prediction;
shorts buy to cover, help them every way you can.

 

[wilburbear]

10:27 am CST. Dow up 72 points. Hope you bought.

 

[illiquid]

You really consider this trade to be in the same vein as the post-London bombing? It's the exact opposite opportunity here.