Don't Americans see it?

wilburbear · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from studyandtrade:

I am astonished! The value of the US$ has declined rapidly over the last 4 years despite the daily super bullish stories of the politicians. Prices of anything you can think of are going up. People still don't question what's happening; in the contrary, they invest everything they have in an overvalued stock market. It's the biggest bubble next to the housing bubble.
In the mean time gold is in a true bull trend since 2001. Nobody seems to take note of it.
Where will this end?

Another guy that's pissed because he can foretell the future.

Short the stock market in size, and go on to make your fortune.

dino roxxx · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from jem:

perhaps someone would like to explain why the dollar at this level is worse than the dollar at its highest levels.

Do you prefer to favor bankers or manufactures and exporters?

If you fear inflation. Would you rather hold dollars in a bank account or invest in real estate or perhaps certain segments of the stock market.

By the way should we fear deflation or inflation.

With the cost of labor going down who is going to be driving the prices up?

Perhaps the markets are just adjusting to the B.S. caused by the rigging of the exporting countries.

Perhaps you would like to explain why your doomsday scenario is better than the ones that were written in the 70s or in the books by batra and prechter.

I too am concerned about the future. But no one in the world has really come to my attention as making accurate forecasts.

great points jem!
I would consider the excessive spending on current pork out of washington probably one of the biggest problems right now. We are our own worst enemy. Big government = BIG SPENDING, and republicans have proven they can spend with the best of them.

I remember when I could buy Euro's for .90 on the dollar. Big multinationals were hurting and domestic based tech was booming and starting to expand worldwide. Now tech has also moved offshore (Intel plants in Ireland and India etc...) and become multis along with the likes of 3M and GE etc... My point, weak dollar isn't always a bad thing, but a weak dollar with out of control government spending, now we have a problem.

CoolTrader · Jan 13, 2006

Stock market: It's not overvalued at current level, where PE of SP 500 is below 20.
Housing: Although bubble only exists in some regions, the impact of bubble burst could spread to rest of the country. Will that cause a recession?
Dollar: The government has to balance the budget at some point, as we approach the borrowing limit. It's interesting to see what politicians would do after Bush's term, deficit should be a hot topic in the next election.

Chood · Jan 13, 2006

If just a small piece of below proves true, a fortune would lie within it. That's the allure of it. Whether true or not -- or which piece may prove true -- that's another matter entirely.

Quote from studyandtrade:

I am astonished! The value of the US$ has declined rapidly over the last 4 years despite the daily super bullish stories of the politicians. Prices of anything you can think of are going up. People still don't question what's happening; in the contrary, they invest everything they have in an overvalued stock market. It's the biggest bubble next to the housing bubble.
In the mean time gold is in a true bull trend since 2001. Nobody seems to take note of it.
Where will this end?

hairdresser · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from CoolTrader:

Stock market: It's not overvalued at current level, where PE of SP 500 is below 20.
Housing: Although bubble only exists in some regions, the impact of bubble burst could spread to rest of the country. Will that cause a recession?
Dollar: The government has to balance the budget at some point, as we approach the borrowing limit. It's interesting to see what politicians would do after Bush's term, deficit should be a hot topic in the next election.

You listen to exactly what they tell you.

maxpi · Jan 13, 2006

This doom and gloom stuff goes on decade in and decade out. It might happen eventually but so what? If you are a trader and you are on the right side of the market, you win big. I had relatives that started building a portfolio of real estate in 1932, they were extremely wealthy when it was all over.

People that grew up in Russia tell me that all their lives they were told that capitalism was going to collapse, or had already collapsed, or was collapsing. That is why things changed so quickly at Glasnost time, they were allowed to look around and see the prosperity.

Check your sources and take things with a grain of salt. There still is a communist movement, Venezuala, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba and even in a Central American state or two. It has been beaten down to the point where it can be ignored really, but some of this doom and gloom could be coming from them. There was a guy named Gary North that was responsible for a lot of the Y2K hysteria, it turns out he has always WANTED the collapse of the west, he thinks people are too materialistic for their spiritual good.

studyandtrade · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from maxpi:

There still is a communist movement, Venezuala, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba and even in a Central American state or two. It has been beaten down to the point where it can be ignored really, but some of this doom and gloom could be coming from them.

maxpi,
you may rest assured that i am no communist!

nassau · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from hairdresser:

1. yes
2. you are right you should consider the downside too, but not dwell on it.

I have a question, why do some many traders here on ET feel so negative about taking about shorts or shorting..

everyday, wk, month - all stocks go both long and short..
it is a part and a needed part of our business..
being either just a bull or bear, you lose out on so many good safe (if you can say that) trades..even if over all you are holding long position trades
trading creates profit..both being long and short

w

Samson77 · Jan 13, 2006

Americans dance to their own music, they could care less about debt, money supply or personal circumstance, it's survival of the fittest in the country and you either keep up or get run over.

That being said I see a recession soon and a flush of the system.

$1000.00 Gold within 3 years

hairdresser · Jan 13, 2006

Quote from maxpi:

This doom and gloom stuff goes on decade in and decade out. It might happen eventually but so what? If you are a trader and you are on the right side of the market, you win big. I had relatives that started building a portfolio of real estate in 1932, they were extremely wealthy when it was all over.

People that grew up in Russia tell me that all their lives they were told that capitalism was going to collapse, or had already collapsed, or was collapsing. That is why things changed so quickly at Glasnost time, they were allowed to look around and see the prosperity.

Check your sources and take things with a grain of salt. There still is a communist movement, Venezuala, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba and even in a Central American state or two. It has been beaten down to the point where it can be ignored really, but some of this doom and gloom could be coming from them. There was a guy named Gary North that was responsible for a lot of the Y2K hysteria, it turns out he has always WANTED the collapse of the west, he thinks people are too materialistic for their spiritual good.

Sounds about right. Its usually the people who DON'T own Real Estate (ie missed out) or werent or arent long stocks in a bull market. They begin saying Doom and Gloom, but really the are miserable they made no money. Then they delude themselves and begin to distort reality around what they hope for. That is that everyone that profited has to give it back, because the Doom and Gloomer missed out.