Don's Openings Pt. 2

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Originally posted by alanm


I'd appreciate any discussion on how to read these. I try to (or am forced to) play these sometimes, and they seem to be really inconsistent. Sometimes, with a big sell imbalance for example, the first indication will appear to be too high, and then come down a couple times before it opens. Other times, the first indication is way too low, and comes up before it opens, which seems more intuitive if the purpose is to try to attract buyers.

Do different specialists use different tactics, or are they really getting such grossly conflicting information from the crowd? Sometimes, it seems that when he's almost ready to print an opening, someone shows up with another zillion shares to sell. Does this really happen?
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When you say read these you aren't clear. Do you mean read specialist? Or Opening indications?

I'm assuming it is about Opening Indications?

First is there news?

How bad /good is the news?

Look at CRY and what happened last week

We couldn't get bullets after the market opened (but before the stock opened) as the bullet firm was out of inventory and needed to take some from the market........First time I couldn't get a bullet in my history with the firm. (after the open it was easy but we wanted that first print and shorts couldn't have it.

On days like those they aren't playing games. Usually when the volume surges like that they have to remove or take in inventory a lot more than the specialist would prefer. Orders are coming in left and right and they are just looking for some opposing orders.

A light is flashing at their post saying there is an order imbalance
they keep indicating lower until they can find some reasonable balance.

Sometimes they can't find a balance so they open up and than go in the same direction till they can find a balance. CRY is a great example. If you can get access to a one minute chart with volume you will see that once it started to go up right before there was a huge surge in volume.




On reading tapes and a specialist it is really simple. Well I'm going to give you the most simplistic form.

If I see lots of size going off on the ask (so that my time and sales are green) and there are big bidders well that means it is going up

If I see lots of size on the offer and prints hitting the bid --so that there is red on my time and sales well than the stock is going down.

Some specialist like to wiggle more than others. If you trade the same stock you will soon get a feel for how it trades after awhile. Keep yr size down as trying to learn.

Robert
 
Do you typically like to short stocks using bullets on the opening print (ie your CRY example)? You said that you missed the opening print which is what you really wanted. Just wondering what your take is on this?

Leland
 
You will only use bullets when the expected opening is below the previous day's close. If you don't want to use bullets, simply put the SS (short sale) in anyway, and if it opens up a penny or more, then you are filled.

It's pretty rare when your outside envelope is below the previous day's closing price.
 
Originally posted by LelandC
Do you typically like to short stocks using bullets on the opening print (ie your CRY example)? You said that you missed the opening print which is what you really wanted. Just wondering what your take is on this?

Leland
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if it prints above yesterday's price than it is an automatic uptick

CRY had an indication to print either 6 points below yesterday's close or 8 point below. I just knew if I could get that first print my risk would be very limited for a short

Robert
 
Just to clarify... the upper boundary of the envelope (sell order) should never be less than the previous day's close + $0.01 and the lower boundary of the envelope (buy order) should never be more than the previous day's close - $0.01. Is that correct?

For example, there were several stocks that gapped down on the open today, but, according to my calculations, were still above the FV of the stock plus 0.5% (half of the envelope). Therefore, a sell order would have been triggered, unless the absolute lowest price that you would enter for such an order would be the previous day's close, in which case, no order would have been triggered. I that correct?
 
Or, is the minimum upper boundary of the envelope (sell order) the previous day's close and the maximum lower boundary of the envelope (buy order) the previous day's close (forgetting about the extra penny either way). This is assuming you are not using bullets, of course.
 
Don, or anyone else with 3 years experience doing Openning's

To pick up a discussion from another thread. Does your strategy change much during the summer months for OO's? Is the success ratio the same?

Thanks
 
The envelopes are based on expected opening price (from fair value calculations and beta, etc.).

The sell order is usually above the prior closing price, so then it can be marked as a short sale. If not, you have to buy a bullet.
 
Originally posted by Eugene
Don, or anyone else with 3 years experience doing Openning's

To pick up a discussion from another thread. Does your strategy change much during the summer months for OO's? Is the success ratio the same?

Thanks
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Strategy the same....the envelopes may change due to differing volatilities.
 
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