Don's Openings, Part 6 2003

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Quote from Oz Cillator:

so just to put the issue to rest, do these decisions simply come down to your skill as a tape-reader. Or can you make any general assumptions such as "shakeouts occur within the first few minutes or trades after the opening so give it a few minutes before you blow out a loser".
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We explain how shakeouts generally occur, and to be aware of your "children" (stocks) and their behavior right after the opening. We usually use "slingshots" to capture profits. By trading the same stocks every day, we get a pretty good handle on who does "shakeouts" (GE), and who doesn't (TGT).

I think we agree that nothing else but sheer "time in the saddle" will work to develop a good trader. We just do our best to speed up the learning curve.

(And to be specific...yes, we do rely on our tape reading skills, the "all encompassing" comination of bid/offer/size/fundamentals/RS (to market and group)/and our own learned "feel" for the individual stock).

Don
 
Quote from cas:

Yeah Tony, its here in Vegas! Its nasty outside.

cas
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Yeah, no kidding....this looks like some sort of "doomsday".....harkens back to the old nuclear bomb tests here in the desert ....(wow, does that bring back memories)...

Don
 
Quote from WarEagle:



Well it only happened once, and the stock took off to the upside, so I wasn't calling anyone about it. :D
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There was no way I was going to call if LMT was above the opening price-I just got lucky in that when I finally looked at my spreadsheet I noticed that there was a sell next to LMT, but I did not get the fill. Anyway, when I looked to see where LMT was trading, it was 48 cents below its opening so I got on the phone pronto. Then as I was waiting to here back, I was sitting in agony as LMT started to creep back up. I thought about buying it anyway to lock in the profit, but I didn't because the Redi guy didn't seem to think I would get the fill. I also checked the time my opening order was sent and it was at 9:27:43.

Don-I didn't know the opening orders have to be in by 9:28 to get the short, why is that?
 
They don't HAVE TO be in before 9:28, but if they aren't you're not guaranteed a fill. I've been stepped over twice, both times in T, and both times my order was in after 9:28. I send early now as a result.
 
Quote from Don Bright:



We usually have a couple events a week similar to this. After we check to see that the order was placed properly and timely (2 minutes before the opening bell), we get the fill.

We tell our traders that if they are entitled to a fill (and are "darn sure") to trade accordingly. If the stock opened 59 cents higher than your OPG limit, and you wer on time, then we can "assume" a fill.

The people at Redi are pretty good a getting an answer promptly from the floor.

Glad you made some money!!

Don
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ive always been impressed with REDI's diligence in regards to this... but as don said be "dam sure"... dont call if you are bitching a bout a penny here or 30 secs tehre.. but if its a legit bee, youd be surprised.. follow up, i had one where they called me way after close to tell me iwas right and give me a fill..
 
6 fills, 3 winners, 2 losers, 1 break even. +.70

Wish I would have rode my shorts out a little longer but profits are profits.

Don, Do you have your people adjust the size of their envelopes when the futures change is large?
 
Quote from astocktr8r:

6 fills, 3 winners, 2 losers, 1 break even. +.70

Wish I would have rode my shorts out a little longer but profits are profits.

Don, Do you have your people adjust the size of their envelopes when the futures change is large?
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Somewhat....we go from .2 (at zero differential), to .6 or so when there is a 10 point differential ....and if you have really volatile stocks in your group, up to .8 or so...

Bootcampers did "ok"....One forget the Opening Order "Prime Directive"....Take stocks off of list for the day on EARNINGS day....xom (shoulda made 8 cents, lost much more instead)...1 minor error (too big of a slingshot), 1 major error...Earnings day!!


Don
 
Quote from cas:

Yeah Tony, its here in Vegas! Its nasty outside.

cas
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While it is good to have fresh air here, this breeze is playing havoc up in the hills.

I just hope they get a handle on it while we still have some trees left.

Just learning that the Navy had some heavy lift helicopters the wanted to use Sunday as the fire burned Scripps Ranch. The CDF bureaucrats said no way. So, 300+ houses burned that possibly could have been saved. All because some politicos were bought off by the private fire fighting contractors. (not bought off at the moment, they had had rules put in place to prevent outside help)

:mad:
 
October ended up being a decent month considering how poor August and September were for me. I ended up with an about avaerage monthly profit, but had reduced my share size by about 20%. I'm going back to full size next week.

Here's some stats from my own trading for those interested. I didn't miss any days in October (23 trading days).

109 longs 121 shorts 131 wins 27 scratches, 65% win rate.
average fill rate 7.2%
Average # orders sent each day 139 (a little lower than normal because of earnings season)
Size of avearge morning gap relative to fair value .42% (august and september were much lower than normal on this stat)
 
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