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Don's Openings, Part 6 2003
- Thread starter Don Bright
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Quote from cashonly:
How about when a stock slaps you in the face? (ie. ticks in 25-50 cent increments against you after you get filled)
HRB or CB?
i was lucky enough to have both today! but i didnt mean to have HRB and i at least got back to even w/ CB being eitehr smart, lucky or stupid i dont know.. maybe a little of all three
Quote from cashonly:
How about when a stock slaps you in the face? (ie. ticks in 25-50 cent increments against you after you get filled)
Take a step back, and evaluate whether or not you have had some good moves like (n your direction)....the thought process is similar to using beta for a stock to use....They sometimes work very well for you, but sometimes, when you're wrong, can be bad. I know this isn't "great wisdom" but if you're having more trouble than good days, then take the stock off your list.
Don
Quote from Don Bright:
Take a step back, and evaluate whether or not you have had some good moves like (n your direction)....the thought process is similar to using beta for a stock to use....They sometimes work very well for you, but sometimes, when you're wrong, can be bad. I know this isn't "great wisdom" but if you're having more trouble than good days, then take the stock off your list.
Don
so just use simple risk/reward, right?
Don, or anyone else who cares to comment:
Yesterday, COF closed at 37.29 and announced record 1stQ earnings of $1.35, up 64%. Consensus estimates were only $1.03. On the surface all the news seemed positive, although some firms raised their rating on the stock and some lowered it.
Anyway, to my surprise, the stock opened this morning at 36.10 down 1.19 @ 9:34. It never traded higher and by 9:38 had fallen to a low of 35.55
By 9:56 it had slowly crept back up and broke above the opening price, trading @ 36.15-18. A print of 105K then went up at 36.68.
Question: was the immediate post-opening activity a "shakeout" whereby you would have held your position and waited for a rebound? Would you have bought more at lower levels. Was the fact that stock had fallen another 0.55 grounds to take a loss and get out. Some of you would not have put an order out at all in COF today, due to news, although many of you comment you don't cancel an order due to news- perhaps just widen envelope.
Comment: regarding the "shakeout", you can't possibly categorize the action of the stock until the entire scenerio plays itself out. And how the scenerio plays out, with apologies to you "tape readers", seems to me to be a crapshoot. If you think it's a shakeout and either hold your opening position or buy more and average down, 50/50% stock will rebound vs. go even lower. If you take a loss and get out, 50/50 you're a chump or a wise trader. Either way you won't know in advance.
Question: is it simply a matter of personal discipline and risk tolerance; taking consistent actions in similar situations. Do you set personal loss levels whereby you say, "I'll see if it's a shakeout for 20-30 cents against me but beyond that I'm getting out? Whatever it is I would think consistency is the key. If you do one thing one time and a different thing another, you're really just rolling the dice. And that includes trying to "analyze" news and whether to delete a stock because of it. I guess I'm really asking how do you tilt the odds in your favor because, to me, the opening strategy seems more and more like a 50/50 proposition. Actually it might be worse because with your "stop winners" strategy vs. not knowing in advance when a shakeout is occuring, your winners tend to be small and your losers large.
I'd like hear some thoughts.
Yesterday, COF closed at 37.29 and announced record 1stQ earnings of $1.35, up 64%. Consensus estimates were only $1.03. On the surface all the news seemed positive, although some firms raised their rating on the stock and some lowered it.
Anyway, to my surprise, the stock opened this morning at 36.10 down 1.19 @ 9:34. It never traded higher and by 9:38 had fallen to a low of 35.55
By 9:56 it had slowly crept back up and broke above the opening price, trading @ 36.15-18. A print of 105K then went up at 36.68.
Question: was the immediate post-opening activity a "shakeout" whereby you would have held your position and waited for a rebound? Would you have bought more at lower levels. Was the fact that stock had fallen another 0.55 grounds to take a loss and get out. Some of you would not have put an order out at all in COF today, due to news, although many of you comment you don't cancel an order due to news- perhaps just widen envelope.
Comment: regarding the "shakeout", you can't possibly categorize the action of the stock until the entire scenerio plays itself out. And how the scenerio plays out, with apologies to you "tape readers", seems to me to be a crapshoot. If you think it's a shakeout and either hold your opening position or buy more and average down, 50/50% stock will rebound vs. go even lower. If you take a loss and get out, 50/50 you're a chump or a wise trader. Either way you won't know in advance.
Question: is it simply a matter of personal discipline and risk tolerance; taking consistent actions in similar situations. Do you set personal loss levels whereby you say, "I'll see if it's a shakeout for 20-30 cents against me but beyond that I'm getting out? Whatever it is I would think consistency is the key. If you do one thing one time and a different thing another, you're really just rolling the dice. And that includes trying to "analyze" news and whether to delete a stock because of it. I guess I'm really asking how do you tilt the odds in your favor because, to me, the opening strategy seems more and more like a 50/50 proposition. Actually it might be worse because with your "stop winners" strategy vs. not knowing in advance when a shakeout is occuring, your winners tend to be small and your losers large.
I'd like hear some thoughts.
Only 2 stocks, +360 (18 cents).
Don
Don
Quote from Oz Cillator:
Don, or anyone else who cares to comment:
Yesterday, COF closed at 37.29 and announced record 1stQ earnings of $1.35, up 64%. Consensus estimates were only $1.03. On the surface all the news seemed positive, although some firms raised their rating on the stock and some lowered it.
Anyway, to my surprise, the stock opened this morning at 36.10 down 1.19 @ 9:34. It never traded higher and by 9:38 had fallen to a low of 35.55
By 9:56 it had slowly crept back up and broke above the opening price, trading @ 36.15-18. A print of 105K then went up at 36.68.
Question: was the immediate post-opening activity a "shakeout" whereby you would have held your position and waited for a rebound? Would you have bought more at lower levels. Was the fact that stock had fallen another 0.55 grounds to take a loss and get out. Some of you would not have put an order out at all in COF today, due to news, although many of you comment you don't cancel an order due to news- perhaps just widen envelope.
Comment: regarding the "shakeout", you can't possibly categorize the action of the stock until the entire scenerio plays itself out. And how the scenerio plays out, with apologies to you "tape readers", seems to me to be a crapshoot. If you think it's a shakeout and either hold your opening position or buy more and average down, 50/50% stock will rebound vs. go even lower. If you take a loss and get out, 50/50 you're a chump or a wise trader. Either way you won't know in advance.
Question: is it simply a matter of personal discipline and risk tolerance; taking consistent actions in similar situations. Do you set personal loss levels whereby you say, "I'll see if it's a shakeout for 20-30 cents against me but beyond that I'm getting out? Whatever it is I would think consistency is the key. If you do one thing one time and a different thing another, you're really just rolling the dice. And that includes trying to "analyze" news and whether to delete a stock because of it. I guess I'm really asking how do you tilt the odds in your favor because, to me, the opening strategy seems more and more like a 50/50 proposition. Actually it might be worse because with your "stop winners" strategy vs. not knowing in advance when a shakeout is occuring, your winners tend to be small and your losers large.
I'd like hear some thoughts.
You have a great question, and it feeds right into my basic treatise on stock trading. We teach our traders to concentrate on a small handful of stocks, and to watch them day in and day out.....so that they can develop their own sense of whether the above situation is a "shakeout" or a significant downturn. You need to be aware of the outside market circumstances as well. The Prem/Disc to FV, the Sector, any news that may apply....support resistance, etc. And the whole time remembering that you try to be "right" only 75-80% of the time.....and to keep this in mind: "Get out if you think you can get back in a better price."
Don
3 fills, only $180 (9 cents).....
Don
Don
Decent "quickie" this morning: +$460 in about 4 minutes......Now if I can duplicate that every 4 minutes today....lol....
Don
Don
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