Don's Openings, Part 6 2003

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from cashonly:

20 fills,
14 winners,
6 losers
3 cent loss

well, it WAS going well this morning,

Then one of my $30 stocks went 48 cents against me in ONE TICK.

Talked with Don and he told me about watching the Pre-opening Indicators. If I had, I wouldn't have had that stock to begin with. So, now I'm going to work that into my program.
More...

I think every stock today with a published imbalance would have shown up in a pre-opening indicator. Not submitting orders for those stocks would have greatly reduced my overall profitability today. On triple witch, those opening indications don't convey any material information, except that there is a demand/supply imbalance and the specialist is advertising that he needs the participation of the crowd to fill the orders.
On normal days, those indications are more rare, and could convey material information, not sure about it.
Oliver
 
3 for 3 today....+$690....adjusted for pre-opening indications...(helped a bit)....and I didn't say "cancel" due to preopening indications, I said "adjust"....

Back to it....

Don
 
Don or others;

Anyone play in STT today? There was material info. Indicated pre-opening 34-37; previous close 38.5. My bid side was 34.5.
Opened at 34. had to work some magic to get out with a tolerable loss. Only stain on a fine morning, though. Don, this was one where having indication and skewing bid according still didn't help.
Makes you wonder about avoiding stock on a day where certain kind of news is out. It can work both ways. I guess the determining factor is ones risk tolerance.
 
Quote from Oz Cillator:

Don or others;

Anyone play in STT today? There was material info. Indicated pre-opening 34-37; previous close 38.5. My bid side was 34.5.
Opened at 34. had to work some magic to get out with a tolerable loss. Only stain on a fine morning, though. Don, this was one where having indication and skewing bid according still didn't help.
Makes you wonder about avoiding stock on a day where certain kind of news is out. It can work both ways. I guess the determining factor is ones risk tolerance.
More...

I don't trade it, but it was tough....remember, we're looking for a 75% or so success rate.....and I understand that no matter what we do, we are going to lose on a few trades....

Don
 
A lot of talk about the indications today. I registred that Don wrote a lot about those last year and checked it out by actually counting winners and losers (instead of taking anything for granted). I have about 800 observations and can conclude that the indications have absolutely no predictive value whatsoever. It's just as likely to be a winner/loser wherever the stock opens. The win rate is 72% regardless of where the stock opens compared to the indication. The same applies to "news" stocks. The average loser is about the same size as the average winner.

This is from my sample of 60 stocks and I don't think it should be different in others.

Quote from chs245:



I think every stock today with a published imbalance would have shown up in a pre-opening indicator. Not submitting orders for those stocks would have greatly reduced my overall profitability today. On triple witch, those opening indications don't convey any material information, except that there is a demand/supply imbalance and the specialist is advertising that he needs the participation of the crowd to fill the orders.
On normal days, those indications are more rare, and could convey material information, not sure about it.
Oliver
More...
 
Quote from Oz Cillator:

Don or others;

Anyone play in STT today?
More...

PLAY?!?! I was there. You call that playing?!?! You have a warped sense of fun!
 
Quote from ManhattanTrader:




can you share the name of this stock please?


tnx
More...

STT

Don't mind giving up a stock that I'm taking off my list!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top