Don's Openings, Part 6 2003

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Everyone that does OO will have big losses, even Don had a $4,000 to $5,000 loss on Merck back in early Dec. I remember that one well because it took me for a big loss too.

Regarding KSS, 1000 shares were printed at a 10 cent winner right after the NYSE open print, so some guy got out a winner. But then it went straight up and it never looked back.

There was news on KSS. Retail sales. you have to know your stock and know what is news for that stock. KSS reacts to retail sales and it often has very large wild moves. The numbers were bad but not as bad as most feared. Its best not to play KSS and TGT on retail sales days or just as i do make huge envelopes on those days. Even walmart kicked me in the butt one day last year when retail sales were announced.

IT just my opinion, but to make money with OO is harder than it looks and it takes time. You have to learn how and when to cut your losses. It's the losers that will kill you. the best way to avoid losers is to completely understand inside and out the stocks on your list. Kicking a stock off your list everytime it has a bad day will get you nowhere. You will never learn your stocks that way. In my opinion the best stocks to play for open orders are the ones that noone else does.

You must know how your stock reacts to many different events and know what news will effects your stock and how. Just being on the same side as the specialist is not enough, as KSS showed today.

I like to add a stock that had a bad days to my list cause the open order strategy usually does very well after a very bad day for open orders. (all the Bright trader throw in the towel). I will add KSS tomorrow just for kicks. In the past KSS has been good for big profits as well but i am not currently using it in my open order list.

I hope in 20 years i can do as well as Don. good luck
 
Come on Egusc. Tell it like it IS brother. I don't know what you're talking about regarding the retail sales numbers not being as bad as most feared. When analyst consensus is a decline of 0.4 percent and the number comes out down 1.6 percent, that's a lot worse where I come from. In fact, Reuters quoted a senior U.S. economist saying " a very disappointing report...somewhere between bad and dismal". Now the entire market may have been up today due to diplomatic developments regarding resolutions in the U.N. on Iraq and the prospects for war, or maybe it was oversold, or maybe the planets were aligned in the right way, but don't tell me KSS was up because of anything positive in the retail sales report.
 
Quote from Oz Cillator:

A tale of woe!

KSS today; absolutely no news. Stock opens at 52.5, up $1.44.
A great opening short right? Never trades even .01 lower on its way to a high of 54.80+
Don, anybody; what does one do about that? While your busy unwinding the "winners" for 10 or 20 cent profits, the KSS's of the world can cost you a point or more. Beginning to think this strategy makes no sense. Sure you may have more winners than losers; but you seem to lose alot more $ on those losers than you make on the winners. Any words of wisdom out there?
More...

not trying to be patronizing here but KNOW YOUR STOCKS, there was no news on KSS today but had several very bullish events in last week, beating on earnings, raise guidance, like three upgrades, no way i step in front of that thing, remember news can influence days and weeks later...
 
OZ,

I have been watching retail stock for a while and am often surprised how they react to news. But there is often a strong reaction in the stock price when the retail sales data is released. So based on that belief, i placed a huge envelope on retail and missed any fills in the retail sector on the open.

I think today was an expample of short the rumor and buy the news. If everyone thinks retail sales will be terrible cause of war fears, bad weather, slowing economy there is so much fear that everyone has already over baked it into the share price, that you get a lift.

You also could easily be right and KSS was just part of a big wave of buying on an up day. noone really know, but we all think we do. LOL

Good luck
 
By TSC Staff
3/13/2003 9:16 AM EST
Click here for more stories by TSC Staff

Warburg bullish on KSS
8:12 AM EST
Kohl's could top full-year estimates, according to UBS Warburg. Recent meeting with management suggested that new California stores are performing ahead of plan. Buy rating.


Know your stocks, but also have good sources to check the news. I've seen so many guys whacked when there was news, but they didn't know it because they didn't want to spend 10 or 20 bucks a month for some decent web subscriptions.
 
Hey Guys,

Don is still scrambling with 40+ BT Trading Course students today,
but was abble to pull off $120 on AOL.

That's only a fraction of his and Bob's Blackjack winnings last night at the casinos for an educational treat for a bunch of us students who could stay awake/keep up with them.....:)
I mean, they only put in 18+ hour days....
 
I think everyone has it wrong. You don't want to avoid the stocks with news, you want to actively seek those out for opening only's IMO.

Think about it.
 
It depends on your risk tolerance. There is nothing wrong with news stocks for opening plays, they can provide your biggest winners, but also your biggest losers. And when you are wrong, you are usually wrong big, with mega slippage on the exit. Ever been down a buck in one print? Ever had your order held for several minutes while the stock gapped against you 50 cents at a clip? I'll do opg trades on news once in a while, but with reduced position size and a quick trigger finger.
 
Avalanche has a point....the ol' "buy on rumor, sell on news" ...with a "spike" in a price level is very valuable.

Today: filled on 2, only $160....(another "shoulda")....but I was extremely cautious....new boot camp started today.

Don
 
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