Don's Openings, Part 5

Don, how do you implement this strategy when the stock is moving hard - up or down,much like TYC a few months ago. (i.e. if you had bought on bid (or even below bid) the next 5 prints are 20 cents cheaper. Do you just avoid the "story stocks" for that day? Also if you get caught in an updraft/downdraft do you hedge against spy and hope that it eventually settles down or do you just get out and start fresh?

I appreciate your insight.
 
Got stung just a bit today.

-.22 on BP. Oils were weak and BP started down, I closed it out just as it turned up. :(

Oh well, can't read the future. Could have gotten out even, but lately I am very wary of keeping a loser of any size on the books.
 
Originally posted by GATrader
Don, how do you implement this strategy when the stock is moving hard - up or down,much like TYC a few months ago. (i.e. if you had bought on bid (or even below bid) the next 5 prints are 20 cents cheaper. Do you just avoid the "story stocks" for that day? Also if you get caught in an updraft/downdraft do you hedge against spy and hope that it eventually settles down or do you just get out and start fresh?

I appreciate your insight.
More...

We review the "story stocks" to see if they are going to open at an extreme or not....most of the time, if they do, it's a good thing....we get some kind of bounce. Some choose to stay out of the big gaps, I choose to stay in.

Remember, this is a very high percentage play, but there will be losing days (check my records), but we shoot for the consitency.

Don
 
3 for 3 today, + $740 (37 cents). Used a .85 envelope....had a full class today observing (same tomorrow)...

I went through the whole process, from beginning to end, and showed the spreadsheet going back over a year....consistency is the name of this game....

Don
 
filled on one.

BP again.

Long BP -.03

Again BP looked weak from the start. I checked and saw that it was a large gap down for the second day in a row. Bid/Offer and time and sales didn't look encoraging, so I left it after a few minutes. It would have turned out OK, but sure didn't seem promising at first.
 
Originally posted by TonySanDiego
filled on one.

BP again.

Long BP -.03

Again BP looked weak from the start. I checked and saw that it was a large gap down for the second day in a row. Bid/Offer and time and sales didn't look encoraging, so I left it after a few minutes. It would have turned out OK, but sure didn't seem promising at first.
More...

Tony, try "plotting" your entries and exits on a piece of graph paper, noting where the stock went right after getting out (to see if you could have gotten back into it at a better price, or if you perhaps are getting out too soon). Try this for winners and losers, see if you perhaps a bit "gun shy" ...it happens....but I really hope you can get the percentage of winners to losers up a bit....

(always trying to help!!)

Don
 
Tony,

It has been my experience that the oils and oil services stocks are more closely correlated to the oil futures as opposed to the spuz. This has made me remove them from my opening orders since they can (and often do) open in the opposite direction from most stocks. I still track their performance but while this can lead to some decent slingshots, my records on these stocks show that the risk FAR outweighs the return. JMHO.

BigMike
 
Checked my Oil stock and I have had good luck with oil. I adjust my orders for premarket and indications, that may help me.

Just need to find a way to avoid the big lossers, that move quick and never come back. My closing orders get ignored by the specialist. and Its always a different stock or two each week.

I think Don has some magic that lets him known the difference between a shakeout and a strong fast move that's not coming back.

Good luck
 
No fills today... and checking back, the only ones that would have really worked were taken off by news.

I have had some success with RD and even a little with BP. It was just looking weak, so I left it. On both days I WOULD have gotten an ok little profit, but at what risk.

When the opening orders stocks just drift and don't take off in the desired direction quickly, I seem to find them moving hard against me soon thereafter. And the bids/offers I need to get loose are nowhere to be found.

Just my experience.

Don, what is your average holding time for your opening orders stocks? Especially lately?
 
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