Don's openings Part 3

Don Bright · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by dafugginman
hey don...i cut my list in half two weeks ago, from about 25 to 12 or 13. i just couldn't watch the tape on the 7-10 or more fills i was getting. now i'm getting, 2-4, though today i had 6. plus, i've pruned my list to slower stocks, and those that have a high probability based on historical testing.

since then, i've had 7 winning days, 2 that were basically flat, and 1 losing day. today was my best, netting 75 cents before commissions.

Good! Consistency is the name of this game...the money will add up quickly.

Don

Don Bright · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by MartinWeinberg
Today's fills looked promising (big gap down, long positions), but then the market went nowhere for a long time!

This morning we had the Consumer Sentiment number at 9:45 EST. Does anyone have any thoughts about the effects on opening orders when there's a 9:45 economic number due out?

Most of the time we're out by then, but it's always a "50/50" shot if you're still in the positions when any market data comes out.

Don

rtharp · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by daniel_m

Rob, you've mentioned before that you will sit through adverse movement to get your win. What is the point, then, of getting the opening print? If it offers no advantage over getting in later?

That opening print is very often the same side that the specialist has

Only about 20% of what I am getting filled overall is going against me (more often than not fills are in my favor and as a trader I play odds). I can easily be in 30-40 stocks on those opening prints. Yes a few went against me. So what the MAJORITY went in my favor.

There are very numberous time where the opening print is the BEST print and there is no looking back afterwards.

I'm always playing the spread of fair value. Either stocks are too high or too low away from this #. This puts probability on my side.

Robert

rtharp · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by daniel_m

Rob, you've mentioned before that you will sit through adverse movement to get your win. What is the point, then, of getting the opening print? If it offers no advantage over getting in later?

I hold on when the PREM is out of wack of fair value. I understand how arbitrage will eventually pull things back to fair value.

So either my stocks catch up to the futures.....

or the futures run to my stocks.......

Robert

Don Bright · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by rtharp

I hold on when the PREM is out of wack of fair value. I understand how arbitrage will eventually pull things back to fair value.

So either my stocks catch up to the futures.....

or the futures run to my stocks.......

Robert

When we are in the trade, we view the position as any other, looking for proper exit points....Robert is telling you right...he is a "good student." :-)

Don

lescor · Aug 16, 2002

Originally posted by MartinWeinberg
This morning we had the Consumer Sentiment number at 9:45 EST. Does anyone have any thoughts about the effects on opening orders when there's a 9:45 economic number due out?

I generally like to be flat by the time a number comes out. Fortunatley, they usually wait until 10:00 and I'm almost always out of everything by then. But for those early ones, if I have some stocks that still look good, I make sure I've already taken some off the table and I'm ready to close out all my longs or shorts with one click based on what the futures do immediatley following the news. The downside to waiting until after the number is that the slippage can be brutal.

Today was 3 wins, a loss and two scratches for .49 before commish.

Don Bright · Aug 19, 2002

4 for 4 this morning....+$800.

Bought HD back too soon, should've known better after the "good news" comes out....oh well...decent morning..

Don

dafugginman · Aug 20, 2002

don...did you get LLY. i made 10 cents on it. LOL. anyway, 2 for 2 for +35 cents.

GATrader · Aug 20, 2002

Don, could you explain how you got out too soon with HD. The opening print is 30.40 and maybe a couple of prints below that around 35 so no big profits. After those little prints it screamed to 30.90.

Would you have sold the opening print at 30.40, watch it go to 30.90 and still not cover ?

Thanks

Don Bright · Aug 20, 2002

Originally posted by GATrader
Don, could you explain how you got out too soon with HD. The opening print is 30.40 and maybe a couple of prints below that around 35 so no big profits. After those little prints it screamed to 30.90.

Would you have sold the opening print at 30.40, watch it go to 30.90 and still not cover ?

Thanks

You're looking at yesterday's HD. However, today I did get too soon, and took a hit on it (paid .80). I ended up making about $700 thanks to BMY and MWD.

Don