edge,
How do you pick these plays?
How do you pick these plays?
Don's Opening's Journal....
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
Done some research on which ones that comes out more positive than others. No safe bet, but still an "edge". I calculate fair value for "my" stocks, then place orders long below and short above. You use this approach? By the way, here is my other stocks which I don't trade yet, but keep in a watchlist, this is their outcome for today:
IGT-LOOSER
CI-WINNER
ABT-WINNER
MRK-WINNER
HD-LOOSER
JPM-WINNER
GM-Still "in" there
Target for P/L is a quarter either way.
IGT-LOOSER
CI-WINNER
ABT-WINNER
MRK-WINNER
HD-LOOSER
JPM-WINNER
GM-Still "in" there
Target for P/L is a quarter either way.
Last few days:
27th = +600
26th = - 80
24th = + 820
Lowered envelope to .8 due to lower fv differential to actual to get more fills. Still only 2 today (27th).
27th = +600
26th = - 80
24th = + 820
Lowered envelope to .8 due to lower fv differential to actual to get more fills. Still only 2 today (27th).
Don,
by envelope I guess you mean the span below and above a stock's FV? Interesting if you use .8, still use .5 myself. Tried to analyze based on .4, but the edge gets smaller even if you get hit more often. Though does it seem that the stocks that "works better" can be enveloped even at that level.
Pitbull,
you find FV at several sites like www.programtrading.com, CNBC, CNNfn to mention a few
by envelope I guess you mean the span below and above a stock's FV? Interesting if you use .8, still use .5 myself. Tried to analyze based on .4, but the edge gets smaller even if you get hit more often. Though does it seem that the stocks that "works better" can be enveloped even at that level.
Pitbull,
you find FV at several sites like www.programtrading.com, CNBC, CNNfn to mention a few
For the most part, we have seen that 2-6 stocks is all that we can close effectively (I know it is hard for me to watch the tape closely on more than that). The automated "closing" systems have proven to be not nearly as effective overall, so we are suggesting that people keep closing trades manually (a few exceptions of course).
Today's plays:
MMM, enter long at 120, stopped out at 119,75, LOOSER
KO, enter long at 47,31, stopped out at 47,20, LOOSER
Well, shit happens. Had many orders in today but got only 2 "hits". Seems like the action and liquidity needed for some REAL plays are lacking these x-mas days.
Otherwise, the following stocks got hit from my watchlist which I don't trade yet:
JPM-winner, HD-winner, IGT-winner, WAT-looser, HIG-looser, TLB-winner, TXT-looser, MU-looser, LEH-winner, FDC-winner, CAH-winner, CLS-winner, CVC-looser, AYE-winner, DCX-scratch
From watchlist the ratio was 9 winners, 5 loosers, 1 scratch
MMM, enter long at 120, stopped out at 119,75, LOOSER
KO, enter long at 47,31, stopped out at 47,20, LOOSER
Well, shit happens. Had many orders in today but got only 2 "hits". Seems like the action and liquidity needed for some REAL plays are lacking these x-mas days.
Otherwise, the following stocks got hit from my watchlist which I don't trade yet:
JPM-winner, HD-winner, IGT-winner, WAT-looser, HIG-looser, TLB-winner, TXT-looser, MU-looser, LEH-winner, FDC-winner, CAH-winner, CLS-winner, CVC-looser, AYE-winner, DCX-scratch
From watchlist the ratio was 9 winners, 5 loosers, 1 scratch
The Edge,
I like the looks of what you're doing, but I'm not sure I fully understand it. Could you go through a calculation for one stock to illustrate it? Thanks.
I like the looks of what you're doing, but I'm not sure I fully understand it. Could you go through a calculation for one stock to illustrate it? Thanks.