Don's Openings and More for 2006
- Thread starter Don Bright
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1 short fill, +180
I looked at CI; that's was a damn good scratch on your part, especially after it made another high after pulling back...
Today 2 long wins, 1 short win, 1 short scratch, +445
Up $140 today with old program...traded in front of 50 students with my single screen laptop. I'll post the week's overall results on Friday.
(Back to class)...
Don
(Back to class)...
Don
2 short wins, 1 long win, +350
Maybe Lescor or Don have enough statistics to elaborate, but I would welcome anyone's insight.
This strategy, oo, is based upon the expectation that an out of line premium allows us to take advantage of stocks that will also open out of line with the premium on the spoos.
Today for example, the spoos were above fair value by about .0025, meaning you might be able to short some out of line stocks on the open (I was filled on GE, XOM, and DIS).
I've noticed that some on the forum envelope both sides, meaning they have buys in, when the spoos are ABOVE fair value.
Doesn't this go against the fundamental reasoning behind the strategy? I only put my orders in the direction against the excesive premium or discount.
Am I missing something?
Sure, today you would have gotten a great fill by buying GM, but are the trades against the spoos over the long run profitable?
Thanks in advance for your responses.
BTW, this was a perfect set-up for the oil stocks today. Spoos at a premium, COP with good earnings, BUT crude was down. That seems to be a recipe for a good opening short on XOM, etc.
This strategy, oo, is based upon the expectation that an out of line premium allows us to take advantage of stocks that will also open out of line with the premium on the spoos.
Today for example, the spoos were above fair value by about .0025, meaning you might be able to short some out of line stocks on the open (I was filled on GE, XOM, and DIS).
I've noticed that some on the forum envelope both sides, meaning they have buys in, when the spoos are ABOVE fair value.
Doesn't this go against the fundamental reasoning behind the strategy? I only put my orders in the direction against the excesive premium or discount.
Am I missing something?
Sure, today you would have gotten a great fill by buying GM, but are the trades against the spoos over the long run profitable?
Thanks in advance for your responses.
BTW, this was a perfect set-up for the oil stocks today. Spoos at a premium, COP with good earnings, BUT crude was down. That seems to be a recipe for a good opening short on XOM, etc.
The spoos give us an indication of where the cash market is expected to open. From that we can figure where we expect each stock to open. If it opens too low, we want to own it, if it opens too high, want to be short. It's as simple as that.
If the market opens up 1% and I get long a stock that opened unchanged, to me I am in something that is relatively undervalued and I'd expect it to trade towards it's fair value.
That's how I approach openings, but others may take a different view on it.
If the market opens up 1% and I get long a stock that opened unchanged, to me I am in something that is relatively undervalued and I'd expect it to trade towards it's fair value.
That's how I approach openings, but others may take a different view on it.
Lescor,
Thank you for your comments.
It sounds like you're just keepin' it as simple as possible without trying to "overthink" the strategy.
I know you keep tremendous trading records.
Have you ever looked at the trades to get any statisical info on whether trades that were buys on excessive premium days or sells on excessive discount days were any better or worse than average?
Just curious if you any info on that.
Again your comments are always appreciated and as I said, keepin' it simple always seems to work best. I usually screw things up when I over think. lol
Thank you for your comments.
It sounds like you're just keepin' it as simple as possible without trying to "overthink" the strategy.
I know you keep tremendous trading records.
Have you ever looked at the trades to get any statisical info on whether trades that were buys on excessive premium days or sells on excessive discount days were any better or worse than average?
Just curious if you any info on that.
Again your comments are always appreciated and as I said, keepin' it simple always seems to work best. I usually screw things up when I over think. lol
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