Don's Openings and More for 2006

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I'm pretty new at OO, but It helps me to know things like how often a stock gaps up/down and reverses and how much the typical MAE is and the average daily range. I use trendlines to stay in a trade. Today I had one fill in BAC and managed to stay in it from 43.65 (short) to 46.30 and 46.35. That was almost the entire move down this morning.

As an example, BAC will reverse from the opening gap 57% of the time. The MAE on days when the open is near the high or low of the day is less than .08. So today I just put in a .10 stop (mental) and caught a nice move down.

MER will reverse from the open 52% of the time with an MAE of less than .10
I have found many stocks that reverse close to 60% of the time.
 
Quote from Arnie:

I'm pretty new at OO, but It helps me to know things like how often a stock gaps up/down and reverses and how much the typical MAE is and the average daily range. I use trendlines to stay in a trade. Today I had one fill in BAC and managed to stay in it from 43.65 (short) to 46.30 and 46.35. That was almost the entire move down this morning.

As an example, BAC will reverse from the opening gap 57% of the time. The MAE on days when the open is near the high or low of the day is less than .08. So today I just put in a .10 stop (mental) and caught a nice move down.

MER will reverse from the open 52% of the time with an MAE of less than .10
I have found many stocks that reverse close to 60% of the time.
More...

with people as smart as you out there it is amazing that any of us can make money...:D
 
Quote from chiguy:

with people as smart as you out there it is amazing that any of us can make money...:D
More...

I have learned a lot from you guys on this thread. My trading has been pretty unremarkable this month. I had some pairs on that just killed me.
 
Question for Arnie,

"MER will reverse from the open 52% of the time with an MAE of less than .10 I have found many stocks that reverse close to 60% of the time."

What parameters did you use to define a "reversal"? ie: >.20 or
.001%?

Thanks
 
If the stock opens up (+.01) and then the close is below the open. The opposite with a stock that opens down. Out of 275 days of data, MER reversed from an "up" open 79 times (29%) and from a "down" open 23%.
 
Arnie,

Thank you for that clarification, I was thinking you were saying that mer reverses over 50% of the time from an opening that is not unchanged. It is really much less than that in the way that you have defined it.
 
7 fills / 1000 shares each

4 long / 3 short...+1006.00

-.95 / +.55 %

closed a little early...but a win is a win...system says max profit at 9:00 cst...2290.00
 
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