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Don's openings and more for 2005
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
Fill rates have been in constant decline for years, mirroring market volatiltiy. There are periods where it spikes, and several busy days. Generally though, I'd say don't hold your breath.
You have to either try to take more size on the fills you are getting, tighten your envelope or add more stocks to your list.
BTW, the second half of September sucked for me with a streak of 8 losing days in 10 where the losers were bigger than the winners. Finished the month + $26,000 but woulda been down $4k if not for the big day on the 8th.
Maybe Monday will be nice after the quarter end.
You have to either try to take more size on the fills you are getting, tighten your envelope or add more stocks to your list.
BTW, the second half of September sucked for me with a streak of 8 losing days in 10 where the losers were bigger than the winners. Finished the month + $26,000 but woulda been down $4k if not for the big day on the 8th.
Maybe Monday will be nice after the quarter end.
Openings were tough this month, if it weren't for that one day, the strategy wouldn't have been worth much. Lescor is right, with VOL coming down, the strategy is experiencing diminishing returns. Who knows where it will go. Worse case scenario, it becomes a strategy you pull out once in a while when the time looks right. Use it as part of a comprehensive trading plan that has a multi strategy, multi market, multi time frame approach. (The days of a single strategy trader are numbered, IMO)
Pairs were tough this month as well(I havn't seen any posts form Don on this, did you experience similar results with your program?) lots of extended trends. I run two "black box" strategies and they continue to perform well, I also had a good month day trading futures, and using a swing trading strategy that typically holds for 3 to 10 days. Swing trading stocks also performed well. My point is this, if you are concerned about the lack of VOl and the recent performance of the opening strategy, then add a few other strategies into the mix so that you can reduce the variance in your earnings.
Good trading to all!
Pairs were tough this month as well(I havn't seen any posts form Don on this, did you experience similar results with your program?) lots of extended trends. I run two "black box" strategies and they continue to perform well, I also had a good month day trading futures, and using a swing trading strategy that typically holds for 3 to 10 days. Swing trading stocks also performed well. My point is this, if you are concerned about the lack of VOl and the recent performance of the opening strategy, then add a few other strategies into the mix so that you can reduce the variance in your earnings.
Good trading to all!
The OO strategy is dying as far as I can see. The reason why you make good money is because you are a good trader, not because of good statistics. It just isnt any imbalances anymore on the opening. There are too many who do the same, making it easy to create counter strategies? Im sure you have noticed that at once you get a fill the specialist takes it 10-15 cent against on first print, on stocks that never did that before. Or the spread is so thin that you will be in trouble getting out of your stops.
Well at least this is my impression.
ORM
Well at least this is my impression.
ORM
Quote from ORM:
Im sure you have noticed that at once you get a fill the specialist takes it 10-15 cent against on first print, on stocks that never did that before.
Yes I have noticed the same thing. But why would the specialist do that? He holds the same position as I do. Doesn't he need to get out like I do?
Since the announcement from the exchange that they wont publish anymore imbalance, Opening games becomes unprofitable.One day up and next day down. Dont know if this has anything to do do with the recent inconsistency for openings.
ANd for Mschey good for you, it seems that you are the mother of all good lucks. I have never read a single post when you didnt have a plus number....How is you $1000 per session mentor for opening lesson going? Did you get any body to sign in with the best and luckiest guy?
ANd for Mschey good for you, it seems that you are the mother of all good lucks. I have never read a single post when you didnt have a plus number....How is you $1000 per session mentor for opening lesson going? Did you get any body to sign in with the best and luckiest guy?
Quote from isaac000:
Yes I have noticed the same thing. But why would the specialist do that? He holds the same position as I do. Doesn't he need to get out like I do?
I believe the specialist are participating less and less in the opening print. Instead of opening the stock as far away as he can he opens it as narrow as he can. As long as there is no order imbalances he can do that as far as I know. Remember that this is a numbers game. If 1 do it on a 10000 open print he can feast on that alone. But if 100 do it on the same 10000 open print, then it aint much for each.
The reason for this isnt the latest change in rules. It just isnt any order imbalances.
ORM
Quote from isaac000:
But why would the specialist do that? He holds the same position as I do. Doesn't he need to get out like I do?
That is a very dangerous assumption to make. The specialist may or may not be on board with you, and you have no way of knowing. I never factor specialist participation into how I trade openings.
ORM has it right. Success with openings is more about trading ability and experience. The opening print gets you in with a slight edge. Long term profitability is 100% dependant on how well you can trade.
The recent news about imbalances being suspended applies to expiration Fridays only and I don't think it's a factor. Personally, I don't look at imbalances anyway.
Quote from danjos:
Since the announcement from the exchange that they wont publish anymore imbalance, Opening games becomes unprofitable.One day up and next day down. Dont know if this has anything to do do with the recent inconsistency for openings.
ANd for Mschey good for you, it seems that you are the mother of all good lucks. I have never read a single post when you didnt have a plus number....How is you $1000 per session mentor for opening lesson going? Did you get any body to sign in with the best and luckiest guy?
Yeh...it's all luck. I have been trading profitably for five years, but it's all luck. Funny thing about luck, I find the harder I work, the luckier I get! (I typically put in 8 hours of trading and prep, and then another 4 hours of research every day, weekends included)
I have several traders that I am in the process of mentoring. I am happy to report that ALL of them are net profitable traders.
How is your trading going? Are you making what you want to make? Are you getting the results that you want to get? Perhaps you should consider taking a page or two from the playbook I have been creating over the last five years.
And instead of coming at me and challenging my results or calling into question my credibility, perhaps send me pm asking for some help.
You have two options, you can take responsibility for your trading and profitability, Or you can continue to struggle, complain about the market, blame the specialists, NYSE, etc. It's entirely up to you. A good start would be to take the "Get the Edge" course by anthony robbins, you can probably find it on EBAY for a fair price.
Mike