I've been granted an exclusive interview by the incomparable MaximumPossibleSuffering. It has been a whole month since ET has been blessed with his insightful analysis and wit. Excuse me for a moment while I turn up my headphones to drown out sounds of retching in the background. Bugenhagen's perhaps? This interview will not be as bad as someone's daughter boiling a kitten. I hope.
Beautiful Stranger (BS): Thank you for joining us, MaximumPossibleSuffering. How have things been going for you in the last month you've been away from ET?
MaxmimumPossibleSuffering (MPS): Fairly well. Been trucking to generate some fast cash while putting my state real estate license test on hold.
BS: Aren't you afraid of the virus? Also, why aren't you a millionaire with trading conditions like they are?
MPS: Early on, I thought my infection with the virus was inevitable as I had no plans to avoid potential sources of exposure. Besides, getting exposed early in case medical attention was needed would be better than getting exposed later when ventilator rationing might be in force. However, I've seen pretty strong adherence to CDC recommendations both by the public in travel stops and businesses that I pick up and deliver to in hot zones and areas not yet known to have COV-19 cases. My perception is the US R0 in current hot zones is less or soon will be less than 1.
As far as trading goes, I defunded my trading account for truck repairs and a early payoff of a vehicle loan. Oops. I will never allow myself to not have a funded trading account again. I missed a great money making opportunity in the recent market decline and subsequent rally.
BS: What is your outlook for the market and economy?
MPS: I believe the COV-19 virus threat is now a defined risk. We are near peak infection rates and are probably about 2 weeks from actual peak daily death rates. The Fed and Congress were quite proactive with policy, limited the potential of a self sustaining negative feedback loop.
I believe the US equity market has seen its bottom with price action being driven by short covering rallies with dismal economic report related sell offs creating an overall trending upward trading range. Eventually, say in a year or two, I expect US equities to be at all time highs and another asset bubble to form, eventually challenging the dot.com bubble.
Covid-19 has changed the demographic course of the Millennials and home buying, among other things are likely to become top of mind for this group. For reference, look at the post 9/11 demographic changes.
The US economy will see some horrific economic numbers that will test the faith of the Bulls. However, US policy makers still have a few aces up their sleeves that can address potential excess capacity issues, unemployment, manufacturing capacity, services disruptions, to various financially related issues. I will leave it to you to address these "aces" in detail.
Speaking of which, what are your plans for posting on ET?
BS: Well thanks for your thoughts and vote of confidence that I'm privy to potential "Aces in the hole" our Government my have.
As far as posting on ET is concerned, I will avoid the politics section as basically several of the different political philosophies have merged together in the COVID-19 Crisis, while the infighting continues. Poor Bernie, we went Socialist without him! Instead, I will focus on my soon to be created real money journal.
Again, thanks for your thoughts as you truck in into the Sunset, MaximumPossibleSuffering!
MPS: Thanks for having me, BeautifulStranger. May your entry into ET and your trading journal be the dawn of a great happening.
