Donald

[Tony Stark]

Per the threads here on ET

The top 2 most accurate last polls in front of the election I found checking the threads and google...

Rasmuessen...
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton +2

Jem Algo --- Hillary by one or two but the algo noted that per the modeling work done by Nate Silver that meant Trump had a good chance of winning because Hillary had excess votes in states she would win easily.

Then there was this one gleaned by Tony from all the polling data he was touting.

Tony wrote this...

"Trump has to do much better than be tied or even a small lead in the polls to actually be ahead because of the huge democrat edge in the electoral college and large minority populations in swing states.Remember Obama only won by 4 points in the popular vote but won by 126 in the electoral college.Trump could be ahead by 4 points in the popular vote and RCP average but still and likely be down in the electoral college."

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-17#post-4326132

You are only looking at the final poll birther jem.Look at all the polls the from the time they got the nominations and see which polls showed trump would get the most votes the most.

Rasmussen likes to fall in line at the end but for months in many of their polls it showed trump getting more votes far more than other polls.

 

[Tony Stark]

Every pollster was wrong about the election results - especially Gallup. Reconcile that. Faulty sampling methodologies, biased interpolation. And nothing has changed since for Gallup. They’re treating it as an aberration; a Black Swan event (which they can’t to this day explain adequately)

Gallup wasn't polling for the electoral college.Its a national poll that represents the popular vote.

Gallup consistently showed Hillary would get more votes,far more than Rasmussen did in thier polls.

 

[TJustice]

Tony wrote this...

"Trump has to do much better than be tied or even a small lead in the polls to actually be ahead because of the huge democrat edge in the electoral college and large minority populations in swing states.Remember Obama only won by 4 points in the popular vote but won by 126 in the electoral college.Trump could be ahead by 4 points in the popular vote and RCP average but still and likely be down in the electoral college."

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-17#post-4326132

 

[bone]

Gallup wasn't polling for the electoral college.Its a national poll that represents the popular vote.

Suggestion: please send Gallup a copy of the 12th Amendment.

Of course they’re going to tell their paid subscribers that they nailed the popular vote within the margin of error. Doesn’t cool the savage burn felt by the thousands of pundits and news desks worldwide.

Dude, you can make data say anything you want.

By your logic - everyone who bought those AAA rated mortgage bonds in 2007 is sitting pretty - Standard and Poors and Moody’s says so.

 

[Tony Stark]

Tony wrote this...

"Trump has to do much better than be tied or even a small lead in the polls to actually be ahead because of the huge democrat edge in the electoral college and large minority populations in swing states.Remember Obama only won by 4 points in the popular vote but won by 126 in the electoral college.Trump could be ahead by 4 points in the popular vote and RCP average but still and likely be down in the electoral college."

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-17#post-4326132

I was wrong on that one.You thought Romney would win and he got slaughtered far worse than Hillary.

 

[Tony Stark]

Suggestion: please send Gallup a copy of the 12th Amendment.

Dont have to.Gallup never claimed they were polling for The EC.

 

[TJustice]

Tony's citations for picks on the Electoral College.
There are a few in there when you open up the quote.

Betting markets 323-215

Princeton Election Consortium Clinton 312, Trump 226

Silvers original algo 290-246

RCP 297-241

Huff Post 341-197

washington post 290-209

Fox News 283-192

 

[TJustice]

You and your team were wrong the entire time. Many, many months.

The only one on your team who was right was Nate Silver in a partial manner. His modeling was great. But he was taken in garbage data.

I was wrong on that one.You thought Romney would win and he got slaughtered far worse than Hillary.

 

[Tony Stark]

You and your team were wrong for the entire time of that thread. Many, many months.

Not about who the people would vote for.

 

[bone]

Dont have to.Gallup never claimed they were polling for The EC.

Now you’re just being argumentative for no good reason - and defending the indefensible. Might I suggest you don’t make excuses for Gallup and the 2016 General Election. All of Gallup’s paid subscribers relied upon them to project the Presidential race. If you’re going to claim otherwise I call BullShit.