Don Miller 2.

[Pekelo]

I thought MATD was a mean reversal strategy, when the market is consolidating after a big move. I described earlier how to play it.

This morning was relative easy to play since it was a consequtive 2nd downgap, with a 90% probability of closing the gap on the same day. I already wrote about this 3 years ago...

Anyway, going back to Don:

I always wondered why he keeps jumping in and out of positions constantly, instead of just waiting for that high probability set up and swinging it big when that occurs. He could get the same result but with much smaller brokers' fees, and it is easier to teach too.

 

[ang_99]

Quote from Pekelo:

I thought MATD was a mean reversal strategy, when the market is consolidating after a big move. I described earlier how to play it.

wow, its like the twilight zone around here.

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from bobfrank:

I was simply responding to an email sent to me about this particular forum which was quite critical of Don Miller.

This was even less persuasive than the first post.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from FortuneTeller:

I remember reading that Don usually starts a sequence with 15 lots, then adds 30, and then adds 45 if needed. And he said that he usually doesn't have more than 100 lots on a trade at any one time. But I might be off a little.

I'm fairly sure that the "trading scorecard" on his blog showed that he was regularly doing 3000-4000 roundturns per day. So either he's taking 30+ trades a day or he deploys much more size than that.

The main thing I wonder about the Jellies is whether it's even theoretically possible for them to duplicate Don's results, even if they were able to perfectly duplicate his method and take precisely the same trades he does. Don's statistical edge seems to be extremely small - like he'll make $6k on 3500 roundturns (his average daily profit in 2008 was $6500). That would be something like $1.70 per contract traded. Without CME member rates and broker volume discounts for doing 60k+ roundturns a month, all of that edge and more would vanish into the broker's and exchange's pockets.

 

[jeb9999]

Quote from Specterx:

I'm fairly sure that the "trading scorecard" on his blog showed that he was regularly doing 3000-4000 roundturns per day. So either he's taking 30+ trades a day or he deploys much more size than that.

The main thing I wonder about the Jellies is whether it's even theoretically possible for them to duplicate Don's results, even if they were able to perfectly duplicate his method and take precisely the same trades he does. Don's statistical edge seems to be extremely small - like he'll make $6k on 3500 roundturns (his average daily profit in 2008 was $6500). That would be something like $1.70 per contract traded. Without CME member rates and broker volume discounts for doing 60k+ roundturns a month, all of that edge and more would vanish into the broker's and exchange's pockets.

Is everyone that dislikes Don Miller factually challenged? Why can't you even get simple factual information correct? The facts are all clearly stated in the blog.

In 2008 Don Miller had a net profit of $1,635,103 trading 586,184 sides (293,092 RTs). The net profit per RT is $5.58 or less than one half an ES tick per RT. 293,092 RTs over 253 trading days is 1,158 RTs per day.

Even if he did not lease an IOM seat he still would have made more than $1 million in 2008.

Net Profits for the year 2008 $1,635,103
Cost savings of IOM membership $510,051
Net Profits (if retail trader) $1,125,052


If you would please point to the websites with all the other ES traders reporting actual trading statistics for 2008 we can then compare Don Miller's trading results to all the other traders' trading results.

 

[jeb9999]

Quote from Pekelo:

Thanks, although this thread is not about me. I get an internet stalker in every 5 years and the last was 4 years ago, so I guess I was due getting another moron. I am getting too old to care about them.

Soup is good, anyone wants the recipe? Seriously, I will get back on the topic of Mr. Miller's teaching activities.

Now my estimate is that about 2/3rd of students of any teachers will end up NOT being able to copy and use the system. Let's suppose I am right. Would any teacher start with this statistics before the students sign up?

You raise an interesting point about student success. I don't know how good an educator Don Miller is, but he believes that he is a good one. And he is not educating a random selection of students.

Don Miller did not take the first 20 people who applied to be Jellies. He interviewed more than 100 applicants before selecting the final 20 for the first group. I would think that he selected people that he thought would be most amenable to learning his trading methods. I would think that if he selected properly then 2/3 of the students might well end up being successful traders.

What I think is of more interest is that with two groups of 20 interviewed and selected traders there is a very good chance that at least one trader in each group will actually end up being a better trader than Don himself. Better traders will motivate Don to become even better than he is now.

After the second 4 week Jellie effort Don is going to continue to trade with all 40 traders as a team. There are very interesting possibilities in idea creation and synergies that can occur in a 41 person team of trained traders.

 

[jeb9999]

Quote from Pekelo:

I thought MATD was a mean reversal strategy, when the market is consolidating after a big move. I described earlier how to play it.

This morning was relative easy to play since it was a consequtive 2nd downgap, with a 90% probability of closing the gap on the same day. I already wrote about this 3 years ago...

Anyway, going back to Don:

I always wondered why he keeps jumping in and out of positions constantly, instead of just waiting for that high probability set up and swinging it big when that occurs. He could get the same result but with much smaller brokers' fees, and it is easier to teach too.

What used to be the common understanding of scalping among futures traders is vanishing as the pits vanish. The very nature of scalping as practiced in the pits was to continually take small postions and turn them over quickly to properly feel the ebb and flow of the market. Bids and offers give you one kind of market feel and trades (hitting bids, lifting offers) another kind. Larger postions were only taken when you had the market feel and read just right. If you read about the bond trader Charles DiFrancesca ("Charlie D") he told other traders to always have a position in the market to feel the market flow and keep their brains focused.

It appears to me that many of the people who dislike Don Miller don't understand how pit scalpers used to trade. Don Miller appears to be engaging in pit style scalping methods modified to work in an electronic market place.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from jeb9999:

Is everyone that dislikes Don Miller factually challenged? Why can't you even get simple factual information correct? The facts are all clearly stated in the blog.

In 2008 Don Miller had a net profit of $1,635,103 trading 586,184 sides (293,092 RTs). The net profit per RT is $5.58 or less than one half an ES tick per RT. 293,092 RTs over 253 trading days is 1,158 RTs per day.

Even if he did not lease an IOM seat he still would have made more than $1 million in 2008.

Net Profits for the year 2008 $1,635,103
Cost savings of IOM membership $510,051
Net Profits (if retail trader) $1,125,052

There's no need to get hostile - evidently I was wrong. Only half or so his profit can be attributed to a CME seat and volume discounts.

I don't "dislike" Don Miller. One of my trading buddies went to his BBQ and from what I heard he was a perfectly nice, normal guy and a legit trader. I just don't trust salesmen or marketing pitches, especially not when they involve claims of going from zero to consistently pulling thousands a day on ES in a couple of months' time (or only a single week - see Don's post from today).

Of course if Don Miller's courses are able to achieve this for even a substantial fraction of the students, he would rightfully become a legend.

 

[Vespasian]

Quote from jeb9999:



Net Profits for the year 2008 $1,635,103
Cost savings of IOM membership $510,051
Net Profits (if retail trader) $1,125,052

Don made (above)

Retail trader made (above)


The Broker made:

293,092 RTs x $3 = $879,276 risk free :eek:


Seems to me that being a broker is a much easier / stress free way of making a living then being the trader.

 

[ang_99]

Quote from Vespasian:




Seems to me that being a broker is a much easier / stress free way of making a living then being the trader.

OMG, you just found the holy grail.

All you have to do know is start your own brokerage and get clients. Easy.